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A small group of cloud providers supplies much of the computing infrastructure that AI developers need. That concentration could give the providers leverage over how AI companies access computing, reach customers and move between services—but regulators’ concerns about those risks are not proof that cloud concentration has already raised AI prices, reduced model quality or slowed innovation.
How concentrated is the cloud market?
There is no single market-share figure that describes cloud everywhere. Estimates vary by country, year and the services counted. The OECD’s 2025 review compiles figures from national competition authorities; the Reserve Bank of Australia separately reports a 2023 estimate for the worldwide infrastructure and platform services market.
| Geography and year | Reported shares | Scope and source |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom, 2022 | AWS and Microsoft together: 80% | Cloud infrastructure services; Ofcom figures summarized by the OECD in 2025. |
| France, 2021 | AWS: 46%; Microsoft Azure: 17% | Figures from the Autorité de la concurrence, reproduced by the OECD in 2025. The OECD compilation draws on country studies whose market boundaries may differ. |
| Netherlands, 2020 | AWS: 45%; Microsoft Azure: 35% | Figures from the Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets, reproduced by the OECD in 2025. The OECD compilation draws on country studies whose market boundaries may differ. |
| Worldwide, 2023 | AWS: 32%; Microsoft: 23%; Google Cloud: 10% | Cloud infrastructure and platform services; reported by the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2024 and attributed there to Saarinen (2023). |
The estimates indicate that a few hyperscalers have substantial positions, but they should not be treated as one comparable time series. The worldwide estimate covers a different geography and category from the national figures, and the national studies do not necessarily define the market identically. The OECD also notes that cloud services can support innovation and productivity, so concentration alone does not establish harm.
How could cloud dominance affect AI competition?
Developing and operating AI models requires computing resources. When major AI developers rely on cloud providers for that capacity, the relationship can extend beyond an ordinary purchase: investment, cloud-spending commitments, discounted computing, technical consultation and integration into the provider’s products may all be involved.
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The US Federal Trade Commission’s January 2025 staff report examined partnerships involving Microsoft and OpenAI, Amazon and Anthropic, and Alphabet and Anthropic. It described arrangements that included equity or revenue-sharing rights, commitments to spend investment proceeds on a partner’s cloud, discounted computing resources, consultation or control rights, sharing of certain technical and business information, and integration or deployment of AI models through cloud products. The report’s findings used staff information through September 2024 and public information through January 2025.
The FTC identified possible competition concerns—not a final legal finding that these partnerships harmed competition. Its staff said such arrangements could affect:
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- Access to computing and talent: A provider’s partnership or investment could shape which AI developers can secure important inputs or attract expertise.
- Ability to switch providers: A developer that has built around one provider’s infrastructure, received discounted compute, or committed investment proceeds to that provider may face added costs or constraints when changing clouds.
- Information advantages: Sharing business or technical information could give a cloud provider insight into a partner’s plans or capabilities, potentially affecting how competitors are treated.
- Routes to customers: Integration into a cloud provider’s existing products could help an AI model reach users, while also linking its distribution to the provider’s wider ecosystem.
These are plausible channels for influence, not evidence that a specific model was excluded or that a particular rival lost access. The FTC report is a staff study and risk assessment; it does not establish a measured effect on AI prices, quality or innovation.
Why can businesses find it hard to switch cloud providers?
Ofcom’s UK market study identified several features that may make switching providers or combining services more difficult. Their practical impact depends on a customer’s systems, contracts and workloads; a fee or discount is not, by itself, proof of anticompetitive conduct.
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- Technical migration work: Applications and data may need to be adapted, moved and tested. Weak interoperability or portability can make it harder to move workloads or use multiple providers together.
- Egress charges: Charges for transferring data out of a cloud service can add to the cost of moving, particularly when large amounts of data are involved.
- Committed-spend discounts: Discounts tied to spending a specified amount with one provider can reduce a customer’s bill, but may also make it less attractive to shift workloads or divide spending among rivals.
- Contractual and operational constraints: Contract terms, the need to maintain service during a transition, and staff familiarity with existing systems can add friction even when another provider is available.
Ofcom acknowledged that cloud competition can produce innovation and customer discounts, while also saying that the features it identified may make switching, mixing providers or negotiating harder. The issue is whether customers have workable alternatives—not whether every customer should use several clouds or avoid discounts.
What have regulators concluded so far?
The status differs by jurisdiction, and neither development below should be read as a universal finding about AI competition.
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United Kingdom
The UK Competition and Markets Authority’s cloud investigation closed after it published a final decision in July 2025. The CMA case page records a recommendation to prioritize strategic market status investigations concerning AWS and Microsoft. That recommendation is distinct from the cloud investigation itself and does not mean the two companies have already been designated under the strategic market status regime.
European Union
On 25 June 2026, the European Commission announced that it had informed Amazon and Microsoft of its preliminary view that AWS and Azure should be designated as gatekeepers for cloud services under the Digital Markets Act. The announcement describes a preliminary view, not a final designation.
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What the evidence does—and does not—say
The cited regulator and central-bank materials establish that cloud infrastructure and platform services are concentrated in the studied markets, identify features that may raise switching costs, and describe AI partnerships that could affect access to resources or information. They do not quantify a causal effect of cloud concentration on AI prices, model quality or innovation, or prove that the arrangements described have produced a particular consumer outcome.
For a business choosing cloud services, the immediate practical questions are therefore specific to its own workloads: what it would cost and take to move data, whether the necessary systems work across providers, what spending commitments apply, and how an AI partnership affects access to compute or deployment. Those questions can reveal exposure to lock-in without assuming that concentration alone determines the outcome.
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