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Neither is an unconditional stronger buy on the available evidence. BHP offers large-scale, commodity-linked earnings and a substantial FY2026 dividend; Codan has faster recent growth and raised its FY2027 Communications revenue target, but warned that demand from conflict regions is hard to forecast beyond three months. A buy decision today also depends on valuation: the available share-price information does not provide a reliable, same-date comparison for both companies.
How BHP and Codan differ
These are not close substitutes. BHP is a diversified miner exposed to commodity prices, production and major project execution. Codan is a technology group whose Communications and Metal Detection businesses respond to customer orders, product mix and end-market demand. Its Metal Detection products include Minelab detectors.
| Comparison | BHP | Codan |
|---|---|---|
| Latest reported full year | Year ended 30 June 2026; results published 18 August 2026. | Year ended 30 June 2026; results published 20 August 2026. |
| FY2026 scale and earnings | Underlying EBITDA about US$33 billion; attributable profit US$9.8 billion; free cash flow US$9.8 billion. BHP reported these figures for FY2026. | Revenue A$875.0 million, up 30%; EBIT A$244.1 million, up 67%; NPAT A$175.2 million, up 69%. Codan reported these figures for FY2026. |
| Reported shareholder distribution | Total FY2026 cash dividends of US$1.72 per share; payout ratio 72%, as reported by BHP. | FY2026 dividend of A$0.485 per share, fully franked and up 70% year on year, as reported by Codan. |
| Balance-sheet indicator | Net debt below US$9 billion at FY2026 reporting; free cash flow was US$9.8 billion for that year. | Net cash of A$35.7 million at 30 June 2026. |
The currencies, business scales and earnings drivers differ. The reported dividend amounts therefore cannot be compared as yields without matched-date share prices, a consistent currency basis and, for an Australian investor, consideration of Codan’s franking.
What supports the BHP case
Cash generation and commodity exposure
BHP’s FY2026 results were strong: copper contributed more than half of underlying EBITDA for the first time, while the company reported record iron ore production and shipments at WAIO. However, BHP also said strong prices, including record copper prices, helped its results. That makes the reported earnings a snapshot of a favorable period, not a promise of the same cash generation in future years.
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Longer-term growth and execution
BHP describes average copper-equivalent production growth of 5% per year from FY2027 to FY2035 as an aspiration, not a projection, forecast or production target. Achieving it depends on projects and other conditions. The company said Jansen Stage 1 potash first production was on track for mid-CY2027 in its 18 August 2026 results release. BHP also expects a capital program averaging around US$11 billion per year over the medium term, so project delivery and capital allocation matter alongside the growth opportunity.
BHP disclosed in that release that a contractor was fatally injured at BMA in July 2026 and that an investigation was underway. This is a serious operating event, not an earnings forecast; it is relevant context when considering the risks of a large, asset-intensive mining business.
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What supports the Codan case
Fast FY2026 growth and an upgraded Communications outlook
Codan’s FY2026 results showed growth in both Communications and Metal Detection, with group revenue, EBIT and NPAT rising as shown above. Then, on 29 September 2026, Codan estimated H1 FY2027 Communications revenue at A$400–410 million and targeted FY2027 Communications revenue growth of 30–40% versus FY2026. These are company estimates and guidance, not achieved full-year results.
In the same update, Codan expected overall group H1 FY2027 NPAT of at least A$160 million, subject to product mix and shipments. The Communications revenue target and the H1 group profit expectation describe different measures and periods; neither establishes the eventual full-year result.
Demand visibility and supply-chain risk
Codan said demand from conflict regions was difficult to forecast beyond three months and that it was too early in the financial year to know whether elevated demand and margins would continue in H2 FY2027. It also reported monitoring potential electronics supply-chain constraints. The outlook therefore combines a strong near-term target with material uncertainty about how durable some of the demand and margins will be.
Which business may fit which investor?
- BHP may suit an investor seeking: diversified, large-scale commodity exposure and a reported cash dividend, while accepting that earnings respond to commodity prices and that major projects require substantial investment and execution.
- Codan may interest an investor seeking: faster recent growth and exposure to Communications and Metal Detection, while accepting greater dependence on order demand, product mix and short-term visibility in parts of Communications.
These are business-case distinctions, not personal recommendations. Your time horizon, portfolio concentration, income needs and ability to tolerate price swings can change which risks matter most.
Rank #4
Why the valuation question remains open
The available market information gives Codan’s closing price as A$67.45 on 2 October 2026, from InvestSMART delayed quote data. It does not establish a reliably sourced BHP closing price for the same date or a paired set of valuation inputs. A single company’s closing price cannot show whether it is cheaper than the other.
Before choosing on valuation, compare both companies using prices from the same trading date and a consistent earnings basis. For example, a price-to-earnings comparison requires comparable earnings measures and the same reporting period; a dividend-yield comparison requires each share price on that date and an explicit currency treatment. The stated per-share dividends alone do not establish current yields. Refresh both quotes rather than pairing Codan’s 2 October close with an unmatched BHP price.
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Practical decision
If you are deciding between the two, first choose the exposure you want: a diversified miner whose results are strongly influenced by commodity markets, or a technology group with strong recent growth but limited visibility on some Communications demand. Then assess whether the current price compensates you for that business-specific risk using matched-date valuation data. Without that valuation check, the evidence supports two distinct investment cases—not a definitive stronger buy today.
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