Stocktwits reported on Oct. 3, 2026, that Glassnode data showed investors who bought Bitcoin during the prior rally moving more coins per day than at any earlier point that year. The reported average cost bases—about $97,000 for buyers from one to two years earlier and about $89,000 for buyers from six to 12 months earlier—were both above Stocktwits’ Bitcoin price snapshot of about $84,673. That suggests these cohorts were below their estimated break-even levels at the time; it does not prove that every transfer was a sale or that every investor sold at a loss.
What the reported Bitcoin activity does—and does not—show
Stocktwits’ Oct. 3, 2026 article by Anushka Basu attributed the cohort finding and cost-basis estimates to Glassnode. It described a chart tracking BTC moved from one entity to another each day, smoothed with a seven-day average. The report said buyers from the previous rally were moving more coins per day than at any earlier point in 2026.
A movement between entities is not necessarily an exchange sale. The chart description does not establish who controlled either entity, why the coins moved, whether they were sold, or the price received. It therefore supports a claim about coin movement by buyer cohort—not a definitive count of sellers or realized losses. Stocktwits linked to a Glassnode post, but the underlying post was not accessible for independent confirmation.
Reported cost bases compared with the dated Bitcoin price
| Buyer cohort | Reported average cost basis | Compared with Stocktwits’ price snapshot |
|---|---|---|
| Bought one to two years earlier | About $97,000, attributed to Glassnode by Stocktwits | Above the reported BTC price of about $84,673; Stocktwits characterized the cohort as underwater |
| Bought six to 12 months earlier | About $89,000, attributed to Glassnode by Stocktwits | Above the reported BTC price of about $84,673; Stocktwits characterized the cohort as underwater |
The figures are estimates reported in a dated article, not current market quotes or guarantees of any investor’s personal break-even point. An individual’s result can differ with purchase timing, fees, taxes, and transactions after the original purchase. The accessible report does not provide the underlying dataset or full calculation method.
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Which holders were reportedly moving coins?
Stocktwits said Glassnode’s chart showed activity concentrated among earlier buyer groups. In the article’s account, holders who bought during the decline were not moving their coins. That description suggests the observed movement was not evenly distributed across all Bitcoin holders, but it does not establish that every member of either cohort acted alike.
The chart reportedly marked two approaches to the cost-basis lines as “Rejected.” Stocktwits did not explain those labels, so they do not establish a particular market mechanism or forecast.
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Keep the separate market commentary in context
Stocktwits also reported other observations that should not be confused with the cohort data. It said Bitcoin’s win rate against the S&P 500—defined there as the share of trading days when Bitcoin outperformed the index—was more than 50% in the prior week. It described June’s win rate as one fifth of trading days, Bitcoin’s weakest stretch in six years. These are separate relative-performance figures, not evidence that cohort transfers were sales.
The article attributed a four-year compound annual growth rate of 42% for Bitcoin and 19% for the S&P 500 to Willy Woo. The accessible account did not give calculation dates or methodology, so those figures should be treated as his reported comparison, not an independently verified like-for-like return analysis.
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Stocktwits quoted analyst Ted Pillows saying, “Bitcoin tapped the $87,000 zone.” It attributed to him the view that a weekly close above $87,500 was needed for a strong rally and that failure to achieve one left a chance of a drop below $80,000. Those were conditional analyst opinions in the Oct. 3 report, not Glassnode’s cohort finding or confirmed price outcomes.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What a personal-finance reader can take from the report
- Interpret the finding narrowly: it concerns reported coin movement, not confirmed selling volume.
- Read cost basis as an estimated cohort average, not a guaranteed exit price or your own break-even figure.
- Treat price levels and comparisons as dated and attributed; they are not individualized investment advice.
Source: Stocktwits, Anushka Basu, “Bitcoin Investors Who Bought Last Year’s Rally Are Selling As Price Nears Their Break-Even, Glassnode Says,” published Oct. 3, 2026, 9:37 a.m. EDT. The accessible source article is secondary reporting of Glassnode and analyst claims.
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