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The Finance Base
Azerbaijan

Aliyev Says the U.S. and China Are the Only Superpowers as Azerbaijan Expands Its Energy Role

Ilham Aliyev called the United States and China the world’s only superpowers and linked Azerbaijan’s partnerships to energy exports, production expectations, and transit targets.

By TheFinanceBase Team 3 min read
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At the New Azerbaijan Party’s congress in Baku on October 2, 2026, President Ilham Aliyev called the United States and China “the world’s two superpowers” and said Azerbaijan was a strategic partner to both. He connected that diplomatic position to the country’s energy exports and transit ambitions, while presenting several production and cargo figures as expectations or targets rather than achieved results.

What Aliyev said about the United States and China

Speaking as Azerbaijan’s president and chairman of the New Azerbaijan Party at the party’s 8th congress, Aliyev referred to a comprehensive strategic partnership declaration with China and a Strategic Charter with the United States. He then said: “These are the world’s two superpowers; there is no third.” He described Azerbaijan as a strategic partner to both.

The wording is Aliyev’s political assessment, not an uncontested global ranking or a conclusion established by the speech. The official presidential account establishes what he said and the context in which he said it; it does not provide an independent measure of relative power. Read the official account and speech.

How energy fits into Azerbaijan’s argument

Aliyev presented energy as part of Azerbaijan’s growing geopolitical and security relevance. He said the country produces and exports crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, electricity, petrochemical products, and fertilizers, and said other countries were seeking Azerbaijani petroleum products. Those are claims made in his speech; the page does not independently measure demand or establish what future geopolitical effect the exports will have.

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Exports and processing capacity are different measures

Aliyev cited potential petroleum-products capacity of 30 million tons: 7 million tons processed at a refinery in Azerbaijan and 23 million tons processed abroad. The cited passage does not specify the period covered or the methodology, and a capacity figure is not the same as a verified export total. His remarks also list multiple energy and industrial exports without supplying quantities for each.

Production changes remain prospective

Aliyev said contracts related to new production, including oil fields acquired abroad, would help stabilize or increase output as production at the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli field naturally declines. The speech does not identify those contracts in enough detail to assess their terms or verify the expected effect. The statement should therefore be read as an account of anticipated support for production, not proof that output has already stabilized or risen.

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He also said a gas contract signed “last month” would provide an additional 5 billion cubic meters of gas. The speech excerpt does not identify the counterparties or state the time basis for that amount, so it does not establish when or over what period the additional gas would be supplied.

Transit volumes: an expectation and a goal

Aliyev described Azerbaijan’s transit role with two figures for cargo:

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Figure How Aliyev characterized it What it establishes
16 million tons in 2026 Expected transit cargo volume A forecast stated in the October 2, 2026 speech, not a confirmed year-end result.
30 million tons Medium-term goal A target, not an achieved volume; the speech does not specify a deadline in the cited passage.

The figures describe different stages: the first is an expectation for 2026, while the second is a medium-term ambition. Neither should be presented as an accomplished transit outcome.

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What the figures do—and do not—show

Aliyev also said Azerbaijan maintains strategic partnership formats with 10 EU member states. Taken together, his references to partnerships, exports, processing capacity, prospective production, and transit form a political case for Azerbaijan’s strategic relevance. They do not, by themselves, independently verify each underlying number, establish future delivery or production, or settle how many countries qualify as global superpowers.

The official speech is a primary source for Aliyev’s remarks, figures, and forecasts. The cited passage does not provide an independent audit of the petroleum-products capacity, identify the gas contract, document the terms of the production contracts, or confirm the transit forecast. Readers should distinguish the statements and objectives he presented from independently confirmed results.

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