The U.S. Department of Energy’s 2024 report estimated that data centers used 176 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in 2023—about 4.4% of U.S. electricity—and projected 325–580 TWh in 2028. Those figures cover data centers as a whole, not AI alone. A 2025 update extended the outlook to 2030 and estimated data centers could account for 11.8% of U.S. electricity in its reference case, with lower and higher sensitivity scenarios.
What did the DOE report find?
The 2024 Report on U.S. Data Center Energy Use, produced by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), estimates that U.S. data-center electricity use rose from 58 TWh in 2014 to 176 TWh in 2023. The 2023 estimate equals approximately 4.4% of total U.S. electricity use. For 2028, the report gives a broad range of 325–580 TWh, or approximately 6.7%–12% of U.S. electricity. These are national estimates, not forecasts for any particular state, utility service area or facility. DOE’s announcement of the report summarizes the headline figures.
The range matters: 580 TWh is the high end of an estimate, not a single-point prediction. The projection also concerns all U.S. data centers. The figures do not isolate how much power AI systems use or assign the projected increase solely to AI.
How does the 2025 outlook compare?
A 2025 LBNL update looks farther ahead, through 2030. Its reference case puts data centers at 11.8% of total U.S. electricity use by that year; sensitivity scenarios put the share at 9.5% and 15.3%. The update also estimates a 14% increase in data-center electricity use between 2023 and 2024, and a 21% compound annual growth rate for reference-case energy consumption further out. These are estimates and projections from the update, not final measured totals. LBNL’s 2025 publication page provides the later outlook.
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| Outlook | Horizon and metric | What the estimate says |
|---|---|---|
| DOE/LBNL 2024 report | Through 2028; electricity in TWh and share of U.S. electricity | 325–580 TWh, approximately 6.7%–12% in 2028 |
| LBNL 2025 update | Through 2030; share of U.S. electricity | 11.8% reference case; 9.5% and 15.3% sensitivity scenarios |
The two outlooks have different forecast horizons and reporting measures, so their numbers should not be treated as directly interchangeable. The 2024 report’s range describes 2028 energy use; the 2025 update’s figures describe 2030 shares under a reference case and sensitivity scenarios.
How much electricity do AI data centers use?
The cited national totals do not answer that question separately. They cover data centers overall, while AI applications are one of several factors driving demand. The DOE announcement describes investment in AI and other technologies as contributing to growing demand, but it does not attribute all projected data-center electricity use—or all growth—to AI.
That distinction is useful when evaluating headlines: a data-center forecast can indicate the scale of infrastructure demand without establishing the share attributable to AI workloads. The figures also do not reveal the consumption of an individual AI facility.
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Why could fast data-center growth affect local power planning?
National projections do not mean every community will experience the same effect. DOE notes that data-center loads vary by region, may be tied to locations where latency requirements matter, and often require firm power around the clock. Concentrated, continuous demand can create planning challenges for the grid, but the national estimates alone do not establish the timing or severity of impacts in a particular locality. DOE discusses these characteristics and possible responses in its clean-energy resources for data centers overview.
The 2025 update describes sensitivity scenarios spanning -11% to +21% relative to its reference case, with possible compounded variation of roughly -20% to +30%. These are uncertainty ranges described by the report; they should not be read as confidence intervals unless the report defines them that way. They illustrate how assumptions can materially change a forecast, rather than guaranteeing a particular outcome.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What responses does DOE identify?
DOE frames the response as a portfolio rather than a single fix: clean-energy resources, grid investment and flexibility can all help address growing loads. Efficiency assessment is another part of the picture. The Federal Energy Management Program’s July 2025 fact sheet describes the Data Center Profiler as an early-stage tool for estimating power usage effectiveness, a metric used to assess data-center energy efficiency. DOE/FEMP’s fact sheet explains the tool.
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Power usage effectiveness can help identify efficiency opportunities, but it does not by itself show a facility’s total electricity demand or determine the grid impact of a new data center. Those questions depend on the site, its load, power supply and local grid conditions.
What the projections mean for households
The reports do not translate national data-center forecasts into a specific change in an individual household’s electricity bill. Any effect on a customer depends on local utility planning, generation and grid costs, rate design and other factors. The figures are relevant context for understanding why electricity demand and infrastructure planning are receiving attention, not a direct bill forecast.
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