Recommended Free Tools
There is no single forecast for “prices” in 2026: the outlook depends on what is being measured and where. The World Bank’s April baseline projected global commodity prices to rise 16% and energy prices 24% this year, while U.S. retail food prices and inflation forecasts for major economies tell different, narrower stories. Geopolitical supply and shipping disruptions are a major source of potential volatility, and each projection depends on assumptions that can change.
What prices are forecast to do in 2026
The figures below are published forecasts, not observed full-year results. They refer to different price baskets and geographies, so they should not be read as competing estimates of one universal inflation rate.
| Measure and geography | 2026 projection or measurement | Source and assumptions |
|---|---|---|
| Overall commodity prices, global | Forecast to rise 16%; the World Bank describes this as the first annual increase since 2022. | World Bank Group, April 2026 outlook; its report cutoff was April 20. World Bank release |
| Energy prices, global | Forecast to rise 24%; Brent crude is forecast to average $86 per barrel, versus $69 in 2025. The report says the Brent forecast was revised upward by $26 since January. | World Bank Group, April 2026 outlook. These are annual forecast values, not a claim about the current spot price. World Bank release |
| Brent crude, risk scenario | $95–$115 per barrel average in 2026 under a more severe or prolonged disruption. | World Bank Group, April 2026. This is a risk scenario, not the baseline. World Bank release |
| Fertilizer and urea prices, global | Fertilizer prices forecast to rise 31%; urea prices forecast to rise 60%. | World Bank Group, April 2026 outlook. World Bank release |
| Headline inflation, global | Projected at 4.7% in 2026. | IMF July 2026 WEO update, using commodity-market pricing as of June 10. Its oil-price assumption averages $89 per barrel; it assumes the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening in mid-July and conditions normalize by March 2027. IMF WEO update |
| Consumer-price inflation, G20 | Projected at 4.1% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027. | OECD September 2026 outlook; energy assumptions use futures prices as of September 14, with Brent and Dutch TTF gas peaking in the fourth quarter of 2026. OECD outlook |
| Annual inflation, euro area | Projected at 3.0% in 2026; the ECB expects a late-year peak followed by easing as energy prices fall, with some pass-through to non-energy inflation. | European Central Bank, September 2026. ECB projections |
| All-food prices, United States | Forecast to rise 2.9% in 2026; forecast interval 2.5%–3.2%. | USDA Economic Research Service, 2026 forecast. This is a U.S. retail food measure, not a global commodity projection. USDA Food Price Outlook |
| Food away from home, United States | Forecast to rise 3.5%; forecast interval 3.3%–3.8%. | USDA Economic Research Service, 2026 forecast. USDA Food Price Outlook |
| Food at home, United States | Forecast to rise 2.4%; forecast interval 1.8%–3.0%. | USDA Economic Research Service, 2026 forecast. USDA Food Price Outlook |
| PCE inflation, United States | 4.1% over the 12 months ending in May 2026; core PCE inflation was 3.4% over the same period. | Federal Reserve, July 2026. These are reported measurements, not full-calendar-year forecasts. Federal Reserve report |
Why the forecasts differ
A commodity index tracks prices for raw materials and other traded inputs; it does not measure the prices households pay for all goods and services. Brent is an oil benchmark. U.S. food-at-home and food-away-from-home figures describe retail food prices. Consumer-price and PCE inflation cover broader baskets, with different methodologies and geographic coverage.
The publication date and market assumptions matter, too. The World Bank’s April baseline, the IMF’s June 10 market-price assumptions, and the OECD’s September 14 futures assumptions were made at different points in a fast-changing disruption. The IMF’s scenario assumes a reopening and normalization timeline; the OECD uses futures prices; the World Bank also presents a higher-price disruption scenario. Those forecasts need not match because they use different data cutoffs, baskets, and assumptions.
#1 Best Overall
What could make prices more volatile
Geopolitical disruption to energy and shipping
The World Bank attributed its April 2026 commodity outlook to attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Its April 28 release said the route handles about 35% of global seaborne crude oil trade and reported an initial reduction in global oil supply of about 10 million barrels per day. These are figures describing the shock reported at that time, not measurements of October flows. World Bank release
Energy costs reaching farms, transport, and retail
Oil and gas affect transport and production costs, and energy is also an input to fertilizer. Higher energy costs can therefore feed into food prices and then broader inflation. But the movement is not immediate or one-for-one: USDA notes that producer prices tend to be more volatile than consumer prices, and price changes can take time to move through farm, wholesale, and retail stages. USDA Food Price Outlook
Rank #2
- Used Book in Good Condition
The World Bank’s 2026 projections for fertilizer and urea prices point to higher input costs for agriculture. They indicate a cost risk, not a guaranteed increase in crop prices or grocery bills of the same size.
Tariffs, supply constraints, and technology demand
The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 report says tariffs contributed in part to higher U.S. consumer-goods price increases, while noting their effects cannot be isolated directly in official price statistics. It also cites fuel, transportation, and broad supply constraints as cost pressures. The report says recent price increases for software and accessories, computers, and other electronics likely reflect demand for semiconductors and components used in data-center construction; industrial-metal prices also rose amid supply constraints and data-center demand. Federal Reserve report
What’s actually slowing this PC down?
Pick the symptom - the matching free tool is one click away.
Safe-haven buying and shifting expectations
The World Bank expects precious-metal prices to remain elevated amid geopolitical uncertainty. Energy futures can also change as traders reassess disruption and recovery prospects. Futures prices are assumptions used in some forecasts, not guarantees of later spot prices.
How large could oil-related volatility be?
The World Bank’s analysis finds that oil-price volatility during periods of rising geopolitical risk is roughly twice that in calmer periods. It also estimates that, during surging geopolitical risk, a 1% reduction in oil production generates an average peak oil-price increase of more than 11%—nearly twice the response reported in earlier studies of oil-supply shocks generally. The report finds larger spillovers between commodities under heightened geopolitical risk as well. These are findings from the analysis, not a universal multiplier that predicts the move in every market or episode. World Bank release
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What a household can take from the outlook
- Use the forecast that matches the expense. A global energy projection is not a grocery-budget forecast; the USDA figures are more directly relevant to U.S. food spending.
- Treat ranges and scenarios as uncertainty, not promises. The USDA publishes forecast intervals for U.S. food prices, and the World Bank’s higher Brent range applies only to a more severe or prolonged disruption scenario.
- Expect uneven timing. Input-price increases may reach retail prices with delays and varying magnitude as goods pass through production and distribution.
- Do not confuse a reported inflation rate with a forecast. The Federal Reserve’s U.S. PCE figures cover the 12 months ending in May 2026; they are not estimates for all of 2026.
Sources and definitions
The World Bank’s commodity outlook covers forecasts for 46 commodities, and it publishes commodity data updates monthly. World Bank commodity markets
The World Bank Group’s chief economist Indermit Gill described the potential sequence of impacts in the April 28, 2026 release: “The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive.” World Bank release
Quick wins for a faster PC:
Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
