The latest Bank of England Market Participants Survey found a median expectation of 3.25% Bank Rate in June 2031. That is what respondents said was their most likely outcome—not an official Bank forecast or a promise about mortgage and savings rates. A separate market-priced measure was higher: SONIA swap data implied 5.00% for 31 December 2031 in a table last updated on 7 October 2026. The figures use different methods and dates, so they should not be treated as competing forecasts of the same thing.
What is the Bank of England rate forecast for 2031?
The clearest survey-based answer is 3.25% for June 2031. In its June 2026 Market Participants Survey, the Bank of England asked respondents for their modal—most likely—Bank Rate expectation. The median response was 3.25%, with the middle half of responses between 3.00% and 3.50%; 80 responses were recorded. Bank of England Market Participants Survey, June 2026.
This is a survey of market participants, not a forecast issued by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The range describes the spread of reported expectations around the median; it is not a confidence interval or a guarantee that Bank Rate will fall within it.
Why does market pricing show a different rate?
BlueGamma’s SONIA overnight index swap (OIS)-derived table showed a market-implied Bank Rate of 5.00% on 31 December 2031. The table was last updated on 7 October 2026. BlueGamma UK interest-rate projections.
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This is not BlueGamma’s independent forecast. It is inferred from traded SONIA OIS forward rates, which reflect market pricing. The Bank of England notes that market-implied paths capture central expectations alongside the balance of risks and risk premia, so the curve is not a pure prediction of future policy rates. Bank of England, April 2026 Monetary Policy Report.
| Measure | Rate and date | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of England Market Participants Survey, June 2026 | 3.25% median for June 2031; 3.00%–3.50% interquartile range; 80 responses | Respondents’ modal expectations, collected in June 2026. Survey results. |
| BlueGamma SONIA OIS-derived curve | 5.00% implied for 31 December 2031; table last updated 7 October 2026 | Market pricing inferred from OIS forwards; may include risk premia. Projection table. |
The dates are six months apart, and one figure summarizes survey responses while the other is inferred from traded prices. Comparing them as though they were two forecasts for the same date would obscure those differences.
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Will UK interest rates be lower in five years?
The June 2026 survey median is below the 3.75% Bank Rate reported after the MPC’s 17 September 2026 decision, but it does not establish a dependable path of cuts. At that meeting, the MPC voted 6–3 to hold at 3.75%; three members supported a quarter-point increase to 4.00%, according to the Associated Press report on the decision.
Governor Andrew Bailey described the near-term tension around energy costs: “So far higher global energy costs have had a limited effect on price and wage setting in the U.K. But the longer this volatility persists, the bigger the impact it will have on inflation, and the more likely it is we will need to raise Bank Rate to ensure that inflation falls back to our 2% target.” That statement explains why the immediate outlook can shift; it is not a five-year projection.
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A previous Bank survey also had a 3.25% median, this time for November 2030. The November 2025 survey’s interquartile range was 3.00%–3.50%, based on 80 responses. Bank of England Market Participants Survey, November 2025. Similar medians from surveys taken at different times do not demonstrate that Bank Rate will stay at that level.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the projections mean for mortgages and savings
Bank Rate is not the rate a household automatically receives on a mortgage or savings account. Lenders and providers set their own rates, and the survey median or market-implied curve cannot tell you what a particular product will cost or pay in 2031.
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- If you are planning a mortgage or remortgage: assess affordability using rates and product terms available when you apply, rather than assuming the 2031 survey figure will be your borrowing rate.
- If you are planning savings: treat current account rates and future interest income as uncertain; the long-term Bank Rate figures do not guarantee a particular return.
- If you are comparing outlooks: check the date, method and publication date of each figure. Market pricing can change, while survey results are snapshots of responses at a specific time.
How to read the 2031 outlook
- For what participants reported expecting: use the June 2026 survey’s 3.25% median for June 2031, with its 3.00%–3.50% interquartile range.
- For what traded market prices implied: note BlueGamma’s 5.00% figure for 31 December 2031, while allowing for risk premia and its later horizon.
- For household decisions: neither number is a guaranteed future Bank Rate, mortgage rate or savings rate.
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