The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020–2029 projected that poultry would account for half of the additional meat consumed worldwide by 2029. That was a forecast about the increase in consumption—not a claim that poultry would make up half of all meat eaten. The OECD-FAO’s later 2023–2032 outlook made a similar projection for a different period and measure.
What “half of the increase” meant
In its 2020 outlook, the OECD and FAO projected that poultry would supply 50% of the additional meat consumed through 2029. The “half” described poultry’s share of the projected growth in meat consumption, not its share of the global meat total. The forecast put poultry consumption at 145 million tonnes by 2029. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020–2029
The same outlook projected total meat consumption to grow 12% by 2029 compared with its base period. Per-capita meat consumption was forecast to reach 34.9 kg in retail-weight equivalent, 0.5 kg above the base-period level; the report attributed virtually all of that per-capita increase to poultry. These are projections from that edition of the outlook, not measurements of what ultimately happened.
Why the 2020 outlook expected poultry to grow
The OECD-FAO identified economic and population growth in developing countries as the main drivers of rising meat consumption. It also pointed to poultry’s historically lower price as a factor in its popularity in developing-country diets. These were factors in the outlook’s explanation, not a complete account of why individual consumers choose poultry. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020–2029
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The report also described a possible shift in high-income countries. “Environmental and health concerns in high-income countries are expected to support a transition away from animal-based protein toward alternative sources, as well as more immediate substitution away from red meat, notably beef, toward poultry and fish,” the OECD and FAO said. The statement is attributed to the two institutions, not to an individual speaker. ABC Plus, September 2, 2020
What could alter the forecast
The 2020 outlook cautioned that meat markets are affected by disease outbreaks, sanitary restrictions and trade policies. It also noted that preferences and concerns about health, the environment, animal welfare and greenhouse-gas emissions could moderate demand growth. The forecast therefore described an expected direction, not a guaranteed outcome. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020–2029
How the later 2023–2032 forecast differs
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023–2032 again projected poultry to account for nearly half of additional meat consumed—but it covers a later projection window and uses a stated retail-weight-equivalent measure for its poultry total. It forecast global poultry consumption of 91 Mt over that outlook period. That number belongs to the 2023 edition and should not be read as a revision or direct comparison to the 145-million-tonne figure in the 2020 outlook: the editions have different baselines, periods and measurement terms. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023–2032
For this later outlook, the OECD-FAO cited poultry’s lower price relative to other meats and its protein and low-fat profile among consumption factors. It also discussed higher feed and labour costs as producer challenges and disease risks associated with high-density production. Those points add context to the 2023 forecast; they do not establish that all consumers make food choices for the same reasons. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023–2032
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What the forecasts do—and do not—show
Both outlook editions indicate that the OECD and FAO expected poultry to contribute a large share of growth in global meat consumption. Neither projection, by itself, establishes the measured outcome for 2029 or what the latest 2026 forecast says. The headline is best understood as a historical forecast from 2020, with a similar but separate projection published in 2023.
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