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What the latest growth data shows
Pew Research Center examined trading-volume data from July 2024 through July 2026 for Kalshi, Polymarket International, and Polymarket US. In that analysis, combined volume across the three tracked offerings doubled between May and July 2026. Pew said sports trading largely drove the increase during those months. Pew Research Center’s September 23, 2026 analysis sourced the platform data from The Block.
The result describes trading activity over a specific period. Volume is the value or amount of trading recorded; it is not a count of people. The finding therefore does not establish that the platforms doubled their unique users, customers, revenue, or earnings. Nor does a sports-led rise in these months show that sports will dominate activity in every period.
What “growth” does—and does not—mean here
Prediction-market growth can refer to several different measures. The available figures should not be treated as interchangeable:
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- Trading volume: the activity measure in Pew’s comparison. It rose sharply, with a May-to-July 2026 doubling across the three tracked offerings.
- Users: comparable unique-user counts for Kalshi and Polymarket over the same period are not established by the cited analysis.
- Revenue and profitability: the available sources do not establish comparable platform revenue or whether either company is profitable.
- Valuation: a funding-round valuation reflects the terms reported for that financing, not revenue, earnings, or the total size of the prediction-market sector.
Kalshi’s live website displays market-volume figures, but those numbers change over time and should not be substituted for a defined, comparable historical measure. Kalshi’s website also says the company is subject to CFTC oversight.
Why the Polymarket figures need to be separated
Pew tracked Polymarket International and Polymarket US as distinct categories rather than one undifferentiated product. The distinction matters because their operating and funding structures differ: the Associated Press described the international platform as crypto-based and the U.S. product as more centralized and funded with U.S. dollars. The Associated Press’s 2026 report provides that product context.
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As a result, a combined Polymarket figure can conceal differences between its offerings. When evaluating a growth claim, check which product and geography are included, the period covered, and whether the metric is volume, users, or something else.
What Kalshi’s funding announcement adds
On May 7, 2026, Kalshi announced a $1 billion funding round at a $22 billion valuation. In the same announcement, the company said it had more than 90% of U.S. prediction-market activity. The funding and market-share statements are separate claims: the first reports the round and its valuation; the second is Kalshi’s own estimate, not an independently verified market-share figure in the available evidence. Kalshi’s funding announcement should be read with that attribution in mind.
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Neither the round size nor the valuation can be compared directly with Pew’s trading-volume finding. They measure different things, and the funding announcement does not establish comparable revenue, profits, user counts, or sector-wide volume.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Regulation and market integrity remain part of the growth story
Rising activity does not settle questions about oversight or the conduct of event-contract markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s February 25, 2026 advisory discusses enforcement cases involving misuse of nonpublic information and fraud in event contracts traded on KalshiEX. The CFTC advisory is evidence that integrity and enforcement issues remain active; it is not a complete legal assessment of either platform.
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Separately, on April 28, 2026, the CFTC announced litigation against Wisconsin concerning state actions involving Kalshi, Polymarket, and other firms. The CFTC’s announcement reflects an ongoing jurisdiction dispute, not a final resolution of every regulatory question affecting prediction markets. Growth in trading volume does not resolve that dispute.
How to read future growth claims
For a useful comparison, look for the metric, time window, products covered, and source behind each number. Give more weight to a clearly defined, consistently measured comparison than to a company’s broad leadership claim or a live display without a fixed reporting period.
Quick Recap
- Check whether the claim is about volume, open interest, users, revenue, funding, or valuation.
- Confirm the period and whether it is a one-time comparison or a recurring trend.
- Separate Polymarket International from Polymarket US where the source does so.
- Distinguish third-party analysis from platform statements and regulator announcements.
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