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On August 12, 2020, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast a record-high corn crop if its estimates held and a near-record soybean harvest, citing favorable crop conditions. Those were projections, not final harvest totals. A later USDA report measured old-crop stocks on September 1, 2020; it found less corn and soybeans in storage than a year earlier, a different measure from the forecast of future supplies.
What did USDA forecast for the 2020 corn crop?
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) projected U.S. corn production at 15.278 billion bushels in its August 12, 2020 briefing. The estimate assumed 84.023 million harvested acres and a yield of 181.8 bushels per acre. NASS described the production and yield as historic highs if realized. These were estimates available on the report date, not the final measured harvest. USDA NASS, Crop Production (August 2020).
How large was the 2020 soybean crop forecast?
NASS projected U.S. soybean production at 4.425 billion bushels, with 83.020 million harvested acres and a yield of 53.3 bushels per acre. The forecast described a near-record crop; that is not the same as saying a record was established. Like the corn figures, these were August estimates rather than final results. USDA NASS, Crop Production (August 2020).
Why did USDA expect large harvests?
Crop-condition reports offered context for the optimistic outlook. USDA’s Economic Research Service noted that a larger share of the crop was rated excellent, good, or fair than at the same point in 2019. Those categories described conditions at the time; they did not guarantee that the crop would reach the forecast yield or production level. USDA ERS, Charts of Note.
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The August briefing’s executive summary, attributed to Lance Honig, Chief of the Crops Branch, said: “These levels would be historic highs for the US.” The statement referred to the forecast levels in that briefing, not a later confirmation of the harvest. USDA NASS, Crop Production (August 2020).
Did the stockpile forecast match the stocks later reported?
The headline’s stockpile claim was forward-looking: it concerned expectations for abundant supplies, including carryover into the following crop year. A separate NASS release issued September 30, 2020 reported old-crop stocks on hand as of September 1. Those measured inventories were lower than a year earlier:
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| Commodity | Stocks on September 1, 2020 | Change from September 1, 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 2.00 billion bushels | Down 10% |
| Soybeans | 523 million bushels | Down 42% |
These figures do not directly confirm or disprove the projection of large new-crop supplies into fall 2021. The August production forecast estimated the crop then being grown; the September Grain Stocks report counted old-crop grain at a specified date. The periods and concepts differ. USDA NASS, Grain Stocks (September 2020).
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the figures
- Production is the forecast total crop volume, expressed here in bushels.
- Yield is the forecast output per harvested acre.
- Harvested acreage is the estimated area expected to be harvested for the crop.
- Stocks are grain inventories reported on a particular date; the September figures refer to old-crop stocks, not the August forecast of new-crop production.
All of these numbers describe USDA estimates and measurements from 2020. They do not describe current U.S. crop prospects, grain inventories, or market prices.
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