Naval Group is no longer merely poised to win the Netherlands’ submarine competition: the Dutch Ministry of Defence signed a delivery agreement with the French shipbuilder on 30 September 2024 for four Orka-class submarines. The program replaces the Walrus class, but its full lifecycle cost—including all armament and operating costs—has not been made clear in the public record described by the Dutch Court of Audit.
What was agreed, and when?
The procurement is the Replacement Netherlands Submarine Capability program, often shortened to RNSC. The Orka class is based on Naval Group’s Blacksword Barracuda proposal. The delivery agreement covers four boats: HNLMS Orka, HNLMS Zwaardvis, HNLMS Barracuda and HNLMS Tijgerhaai.
| Date | Program development |
|---|---|
| 15 March 2024 | The government announced Naval Group as the provisional winner after evaluating three bids. It said contract signing would follow parliamentary debate and completion of an Industrial Cooperation Agreement. |
| 10 September 2024 | The Dutch government signed the Industrial Cooperation Agreement with Naval Group, setting out Dutch industrial participation. |
| 30 September 2024 | The government and Naval Group signed the delivery agreement for four boats at Den Helder. |
| 16 June 2025 | The government announced an agreement for Royal IHC to develop and supply modules and steel structures for the submarines. |
| 7 April 2026 | The State Secretary for Defence presented the sixth progress report. It described developments through 31 December 2025 and selected later developments, including continued program work and preparations for the transition from the Walrus class. |
Why did the Netherlands select Naval Group?
The competition included Naval Group of France, Saab Kockums of Sweden and ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems of Germany. Saab’s bid was associated with Dutch shipbuilder Damen. The government said Naval Group’s bid offered the best overall balance across product, price, risk management, schedule, protection of essential national security interests and strategic autonomy. It also said the company could involve Dutch businesses and knowledge institutions.
That is the government’s stated rationale, not a publicly reproducible scoring table. The offers and sensitive design details are not fully public, so available information does not support an independent, detailed ranking of the three proposals. The Dutch Court of Audit concluded that the award process complied with the rules and was carried out carefully.
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What will the new submarines do?
The Ministry of Defence describes the Orka boats as expeditionary submarines intended to operate for extended periods away from home while also being able to work in relatively shallow water. Compared with submarines designed only for nearby operations, their greater size is intended to support longer independent missions.
Official program descriptions say the boats are planned to have newer sensors and communications systems, more battery energy capacity, longer submerged operation without snorkeling to recharge, and cruise-missile launch capability. These are planned characteristics: the boats are not yet in operational service, and the public descriptions do not establish detailed specifications such as speed, displacement or range.
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The April 2026 progress report also describes Dutch participation in a multinational European effort to develop a submarine version of the Joint Strike Missile, with technical provisions for possible integration and use under discussion with Naval Group. It reports that a decision has been made about replacing the heavyweight torpedo. Neither update establishes that the missile or replacement torpedo is already integrated or operational.
What do the published cost and industrial figures mean?
The most important distinction for taxpayers is between the value of Dutch industrial activity and the total cost of acquiring and operating the submarines. The government’s Industrial Cooperation Agreement announcement put expected Dutch production-phase industrial value at nearly €1 billion. It also said approximately 95% of the agreement’s value would be orders placed with Dutch companies. These figures describe industrial participation under that agreement; they are not the total contract price, savings, or proof that all the value has already been realized.
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The Court of Audit found that some lifecycle costs had not been made visible, including costs for armament and operation, meaning the total budget required was higher than the amount then presented. The publicly described findings do not establish a definitive all-in lifecycle cost. Acquisition figures should therefore not be treated as the complete cost of ownership.
| Published figure | What it describes |
|---|---|
| Nearly €1 billion | Government of the Netherlands, 2024: expected financial value accruing in the Netherlands during the production phase under the Industrial Cooperation Agreement. |
| Approximately 95% | Government of the Netherlands, 2024: the stated share of the agreement’s value expected to be placed in orders with Dutch companies. |
| Several hundred million euros | Dutch government progress reporting in April 2026: indirect orders reported as already realized by Dutch companies. This is the indirect-orders component, not the full production-phase value. |
| Several hundred direct and indirect jobs | Government of the Netherlands, 2025: estimate associated with Royal IHC’s module and steel-structure work. |
These amounts have different scopes and statuses, so they should not be added together. In particular, the jobs figure was an estimate, and the production-phase amount was an expected value, not a measure of the program’s complete economic return.
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Which Dutch businesses are involved?
The government’s September 2024 announcement named ten Dutch industrial companies and their expected roles: Royal IHC for modules and steel construction; RH Marine for platform automation and energy management; Bolidt for acoustic lining; Van Halteren Technologies for hydraulic systems; Optics 11 for detection; Solico for composite structures; Combimac for acoustic signature; Hatenboer for water supply; Heinen & Hopman for climate installations; and Verebus for technical support. The announcement also named maritime knowledge institutes MARIN and TNO.
Thales Nederland, DBR, MAFO, Kwant Controls, Rubber Design and Holland Marine Lifts were cited as examples of suppliers that could receive orders for surface-ship subsystems and components. These examples are distinct from the named submarine industrial roles.
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In June 2025, the government said Royal IHC’s module construction was expected to start in the second half of 2026; that was a forecast, not confirmation that construction began. The April 2026 progress report said framework agreements had been concluded with most of the listed companies and that several hundred million euros of indirect orders had been realized by Dutch companies.
Quick Recap
What remains uncertain for the public?
- Full lifecycle bill: the publicly described Court of Audit findings identify armament and operating costs as examples of costs not fully visible; they do not provide a definitive total cost of ownership.
- Module construction start: the 2025 government announcement forecast a start in the second half of 2026, while the progress information described here does not confirm whether that forecast was met.
- Detailed specifications: official summaries provide qualitative capability descriptions rather than a complete public design specification.
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