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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →JBS executives said in November 2025 that tight U.S. cattle supplies would persist through 2026, with gradual improvement expected in 2027. USDA figures available by October 8, 2026, still show pressure in key parts of the cattle pipeline, although the July inventory report put the total number of cattle and calves slightly higher year over year. USDA also said historically low fed-cattle slaughter was weighing on beef-production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027.
What did JBS say about U.S. cattle supplies?
On November 14, 2025, JBS executives told Reuters that U.S. cattle supply would remain challenging in 2026 and improve gradually in 2027. Reuters reported that the forecast came after negative U.S. beef margins contributed to lower JBS profit, and that the company expected those margins to tighten further in the fourth quarter of 2025 amid persistent cattle shortages. Reuters report republished by Investing.com.
This was a company outlook, not a USDA forecast. Here, “shortage” means tight availability of cattle for processors—not a quantified national deficit. Limited cattle availability can constrain slaughter and beef production while increasing the cost of cattle for meatpackers.
What do the latest USDA cattle numbers show?
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) inventory release, published July 24, 2026, gives a mixed picture. The report counted cattle and calves on U.S. farms as of July 1, 2026, and estimated the 2026 calf crop. USDA NASS, July 2026 Cattle report.
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| Measure | July 2026 figure | Year-over-year change | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cattle and calves on U.S. farms | 94.2 million head | Up slightly | Total inventory reported as of July 1, 2026. |
| Beef cows | 28.5 million head | Down 1% | Beef-cow inventory, a key part of the breeding herd. |
| Estimated 2026 calf crop | 32.5 million head | Down 2% from 2025 | USDA’s estimate of calves born during 2026. |
| Cattle on feed | 13.2 million head | Up 2% | Cattle in feedlots, a different segment of the pipeline from the breeding herd. |
The overall inventory was not down across the board: it was “up slightly.” But that total does not erase the declines in beef cows and the estimated calf crop. Nor does the increase in cattle on feed, by itself, establish that processors have ample cattle available. These measures cover different groups and stages of production.
What do slaughter and beef-production forecasts indicate?
In its market outlook summary updated September 18, 2026, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) said fed-cattle slaughter remained historically low and was lowering its beef-production forecasts for 2026 and 2027. ERS also said cattle prices had declined from spring highs and anticipated increased imports of lean beef in late 2026. USDA ERS cattle and beef market outlook.
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Slaughter and production forecasts describe market outcomes, not the number of animals on farms. A lower production outlook can therefore coexist with a slightly higher total inventory: the measures refer to different points in the supply chain and different periods.
How JBS described conditions in 2026
In its second-quarter 2026 results, released August 11, JBS said rising live-cattle prices reflected low availability. The company also said Mexican live-cattle imports had remained restricted during the quarter, further constraining U.S. supply. JBS second-quarter 2026 results.
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That is JBS’s account of conditions affecting its business, rather than a government measurement of the size of a national cattle deficit. It is consistent with continuing processor pressure, but it should be read alongside the USDA’s separate inventory and market-outlook data.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Will cattle supplies or beef production improve in 2027?
JBS’s November 2025 forecast anticipated gradual improvement in cattle supply in 2027. The USDA ERS summary available in September 2026, however, still projected lower beef production for 2027 than earlier expectations. That does not specify the quarter-by-quarter path of cattle availability or prove that JBS’s forecast will be right or wrong. It does mean the original expectation of gradual improvement should not be treated as a settled outcome.
The evidence available through October 8, 2026, supports continued tightness in important parts of the market, but it does not establish the eventual full-year 2026 result or guarantee a 2027 recovery.
Quick Recap
How to read the different supply indicators
- Total cattle and calves: the broad inventory count on farms; it was 94.2 million head and up slightly as of July 1, 2026, according to USDA NASS.
- Beef cows and calf crop: indicators tied to the breeding herd and incoming animals; both were lower year over year in the July 2026 NASS report.
- Cattle on feed: a feedlot count, not a measure of the whole herd or a direct proxy for future calf numbers.
- Fed-cattle slaughter and beef production: market-flow and output measures; USDA ERS described slaughter as historically low and reduced its production outlooks.
- Processor margins: a company business outcome influenced by cattle costs and beef sales, not a cattle-inventory statistic. Reuters reported that negative U.S. beef margins had contributed to lower JBS profit before the November 2025 forecast.
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