Higher memory costs could mean more expensive phones and laptops, or less RAM for the same money—but TrendForce’s claims are forecasts, not proof that every manufacturer raised prices or cut specifications. Its December 2025 outlook predicted a sharp memory-price increase in the first quarter of 2026. A September 2026 update described continued pressure on notebook costs and forecast lower shipments for the year.
What TrendForce forecast—and what is known now
In a December 11, 2025 release, market-research firm TrendForce said a sharp rise in memory prices was expected in Q1 2026 to increase costs for smartphone and notebook makers. It wrote that “smartphone and notebook brands are compelled to increase their product prices and reduce specifications.” That statement describes TrendForce’s market assessment; it does not establish that every brand made those changes or that every model became more expensive.
The forecast window has passed, and TrendForce’s September 4, 2026 notebook outlook described continued DRAM and SSD cost increases. It forecast a 9.4% year-over-year decline in global notebook shipments for full-year 2026. That is a shipment forecast, not a count of confirmed price rises or specification cuts.
For consumers, the likely pressure points are configuration and value: a new device may cost more, offer less memory at a given price, or arrive in a different mix of models. The evidence does not establish a universal outcome or predict what a particular device will cost in a particular market.
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How memory pressure could affect phones
Low-end phones: the greatest risk of RAM cuts
TrendForce identified low-end smartphones as especially exposed because memory is both a component cost and a selling point. Its December 2025 forecast said 2026 entry-level models could return to 4GB of RAM as a base configuration. This was a forecast, not a survey of phones released in 2026.
When comparing budget phones, check the exact RAM and storage configuration rather than relying on a family name or launch headline. A lower price may come with less memory, while a higher-memory version may cost more or may not be available where you shop.
Mid-range Android phones: prices and product cycles may shift
TrendForce expected Android brands in mid- and low-end tiers to consider launch-price increases, adjust prices on existing models, or change product lifecycles to reduce cost pressure. These are possible responses described by the firm, not confirmation that any particular manufacturer used them.
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Apple: pricing strategy was a possibility, not a confirmed change
TrendForce said Apple could review new-model pricing or reduce discounts on older iPhones as memory’s share of the iPhone bill of materials increased. The release did not establish that Apple necessarily took either step.
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Ultrathin laptops may be harder to reconfigure
In high-end ultrathin notebooks, DRAM is often soldered to the system board. TrendForce said that limits the ability to cut costs by switching to replaceable memory modules and makes some of these machines more susceptible to early price pressure. For buyers, soldered RAM also means the installed capacity may be the capacity the laptop keeps for its useful life; check upgradeability before choosing a configuration.
Budget laptops cannot always cut RAM quickly
TrendForce said budget notebooks cannot quickly reduce DRAM because memory choices must work with the processor and operating-system requirements. A memory shortage or higher component cost therefore does not translate into a simple, uniform reduction across every laptop tier.
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What the notebook cost figures do—and do not—mean
TrendForce’s September 2026 analysis used a mainstream US$900 notebook model benchmarked to Q1 2025. In that reference model, CPU, DRAM, and SSD together represented about 45% of system bill-of-materials cost in Q1 2025, when memory supply was described as stable. By Q3 2026, core components represented about 68% of that model’s bill of materials after more than a year of price increases.
TrendForce estimated that a comparable product would need an approximately 80% price increase by Q3 2026 to preserve the Q1 2025 gross margin. That is a margin-preservation estimate for the comparable product—not an observed average retail increase, and not evidence that shoppers paid 80% more for notebooks.
What Micron’s Crucial decision means for consumers
On December 3, 2025, Micron announced that it would exit the Crucial consumer business. Executive vice president and chief business officer Sumit Sadana attributed the decision to rising data-center demand for memory and storage and said the move would improve supply and support for larger strategic customers in faster-growing segments. Micron planned to continue consumer-channel Crucial shipments through the end of its fiscal Q2, identified as February 2026, and said warranty service and support would continue.
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This is a company-specific change in the consumer-memory channel, not proof that phone or laptop makers will stop selling devices or that all consumer RAM will disappear. Crucial’s consumer products are relevant to DIY desktop builders, but a desktop memory kit cannot add RAM to a phone or to a laptop whose memory is soldered.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to decide whether to buy or upgrade
The available forecasts do not tell you what a specific model will cost locally, whether it will be in stock, or whether a retailer will discount it. Rather than buying solely to beat a predicted price rise, compare the configuration and total price against your actual needs.
- If you need a phone or laptop now: Compare the exact RAM and storage configuration, total price, intended workload, and availability of a higher-memory version. For a laptop, verify whether RAM is soldered or replaceable.
- If your current device still works: Consider whether your normal tasks justify replacing it. A market-wide cost forecast alone does not establish that an upgrade is worthwhile for you.
- If you are upgrading a desktop: Check motherboard and processor compatibility before choosing a DDR5 kit. Desktop memory is a separate upgrade decision from buying a phone or a soldered-memory laptop.
TrendForce’s September 2026 outlook also said that “the magnitude of retail price increases, changes in consumer replacement cycles, and brands’ willingness to sacrifice margins” would shape demand. In other words, higher component costs do not determine retail prices by themselves: manufacturers’ pricing choices and consumers’ willingness to delay purchases also matter.
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Sources
- TrendForce, December 11, 2025: memory price forecast and expected smartphone and notebook responses
- TrendForce, September 4, 2026: notebook cost structure and shipment outlook
- Micron, December 3, 2025: Crucial consumer-business announcement
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
