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Probably, but not automatically. The International Energy Agency (IEA) describes lithium supply as ample in the near term, yet estimates that existing and announced mine projects would provide 40% less lithium than primary supply needs in 2035 under its Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). That is a warning about the project pipeline—not proof the world is running out of lithium or that EV growth must stop. New mines, processing capacity, recycling and battery choices can all change the balance.
What the 40% lithium gap actually means
The IEA’s 2025 estimate compares lithium expected from existing and announced mining projects with the primary supply required in 2035 under STEPS. “Primary supply requirement” means demand that must be met by newly mined material after accounting for secondary supply and reuse, with refining losses included. The IEA presents the gap as a pipeline shortfall in a particular scenario, not a geological limit. IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
The distinction matters: a deposit is not a mine, and an announced project is not guaranteed production. Projects may be delayed, expanded, cancelled or joined by new ones. The IEA also says prospects for developing additional lithium projects are stronger than for copper, so the 40% figure should not be read as a fixed forecast of a future shortage.
How much lithium demand could grow
In the IEA’s STEPS projection, total lithium demand—cleantech and other uses combined—rises from 205 kilotonnes (kt) in 2024 to 455 kt in 2030 and 928 kt in 2040. Primary supply requirements are lower because secondary supply and reuse contribute an estimated 7 kt in 2024 and 82 kt in 2040. These are scenario values, not guaranteed outcomes. IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
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| IEA STEPS measure | 2024 | 2030 | 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total lithium demand | 205 kt | 455 kt | 928 kt |
| Primary supply requirement | 198 kt | 440 kt | 846 kt |
| Secondary supply and reuse | 7 kt | 15 kt | 82 kt |
Within that total, cleantech demand is projected to climb from 128 kt in 2024 to 809 kt in 2040; demand for other uses rises from 77 kt to 119 kt. Battery demand figures help explain the pressure but are not directly comparable with lithium tonnage: the IEA says energy-sector battery demand, including EVs and storage, reached about 1 terawatt-hour (TWh) in 2024, with EV batteries alone above 950 gigawatt-hours (GWh). Under STEPS, EV battery demand is projected to exceed 3 TWh in 2030. IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Recent supply growth is real, but does not settle the long-term question
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated worldwide lithium production excluding the United States at 290,000 metric tons in 2025, up from 222,000 in 2024. Estimated global consumption rose from 220,000 to 263,000 metric tons over the same period. USGS described low prices amid oversupply concerns in the first half of 2025, followed by price increases in the second half as EV and grid-storage demand strengthened. These are estimates, not audited final totals. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lithium
Those USGS market estimates should not be directly compared with the IEA table as if they were the same measure: the sources use different scopes and definitions, and the IEA figures are scenario-based. The IEA’s 2025 analysis also projects global lithium production capacity to nearly double over five years, but capacity is not the same as actual output. The USGS capacity methodology considers announced, funded projects and expected timing, subtracts operations nearing the end of announced life or depleted resources, and treats idled capacity as available. USGS global lithium capacity outlook
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What could close the gap—or make it worse
Mines and project delivery
New and expanded mines can add primary supply, but an announcement alone does not deliver material. Financing, construction, permitting and operational timing affect whether a project contributes when demand rises. Forecasts based on announced projects therefore describe a pipeline, not a guaranteed production schedule.
Refining and battery-grade material
Mined lithium is not automatically ready for a battery. Raw output must be processed into suitable chemicals, and processing losses mean mine supply, refined material and battery demand are different quantities. A region can have deposits or mine capacity without having enough timely refining capacity to supply battery-grade material. The IEA’s primary-requirement calculations account for refining losses; comparisons across other supply stages need the same care. IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Recycling and reuse
Recycling can reduce the need for newly mined lithium, but it cannot immediately supply a large share of rapidly growing battery demand: used batteries must first become available. The IEA estimates it will take about a decade for battery recycling to have a significant effect on reducing primary mineral demand because end-of-life battery feedstock is still limited. IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
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Technology and demand choices
Battery chemistries, vehicle efficiency, battery size and the pace of EV adoption can all affect lithium demand. The IEA’s STEPS figures are conditional on a stated-policy scenario, not a promise that every policy, project or demand assumption will materialize. A different pathway could change both the amount of lithium required and the supply that becomes economical to develop. IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why a large resource estimate is not near-term supply
In April 2026, USGS estimated 2.3 million metric tons of economically recoverable lithium oxide in Appalachian pegmatites. That is a regional geological estimate, not annual output or material ready for battery production. USGS reports uncertainty in the estimate, including a 50% confidence level for the study estimates. The finding may matter to U.S. mineral security, but it does not establish how quickly or how much lithium will be produced. USGS Appalachian lithium assessment
How to read claims about a coming lithium shortage
- Check the scenario and year. A STEPS projection is conditional; compare forecasts that use the same scenario and target year.
- Check the supply stage. Mine output, refined chemicals, battery-grade lithium and installed batteries are not interchangeable measures.
- Check project maturity. Operating mines, announced projects, funded projects and geological resources have different chances and timelines for contributing supply.
- Check whether recycled material is included. Secondary supply and reuse reduce primary requirements, but available end-of-life feedstock limits recycling’s near-term contribution.
For EV buyers, the practical takeaway is that lithium supply is a market and project-development risk, not evidence that electric cars cannot scale. The cited forecasts do not establish a specific future vehicle price, battery availability or consumer cost; those depend on more than lithium alone, including the timing of projects and processing capacity.
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