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Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Kalshi did not pay winning “yes” positions after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died on February 28, 2026. The company said its market was about whether Khamenei left office—not a contract for trading directly on his death—and applied a death-related exception. Traders objected that the market’s visible summary promised a “yes” resolution if he left office by the deadline. A proposed class-action complaint puts trading volume across all contract dates at about $54 million; that figure is not a verified payout owed to winners.
Why didn’t Kalshi pay out the Khamenei bet?
Kalshi’s stated position was that the market asked whether Khamenei would be “out” as Supreme Leader by a specified date, but did not allow direct trading on his death. The company invoked a death carveout when he died, freezing the market and declining to resolve it to “yes,” according to The Washington Post and Reuters, republished by Investing.com.
That reasoning is disputed. The proposed complaint alleges that the market-page summary told traders “yes” would win if Khamenei left office before the deadline, and that the death exception was not adequately disclosed. Those are plaintiffs’ allegations, not findings by a court. The cited material does not establish which interpretation has prevailed legally.
What did the market summary and full terms say?
The dispute turns partly on the difference between the short summary a trader saw and the detailed settlement terms. According to the complaint, the displayed summary tied a “yes” result to Khamenei leaving office before the deadline. Plaintiffs say that wording led users to expect a “yes” settlement after his death and that the carveout was inadequately disclosed. The complaint is the source for that account; it does not independently establish what every user saw or when the exception appeared.
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Kalshi characterized the market as an “out” market rather than a direct death market, saying its rules included precautions against trading directly on a person’s death. The Washington Post and Reuters reported the company’s explanation. The competing readings are therefore “out of office by the deadline” versus “out of office for a reason that the rules exclude.” No cited court ruling resolves that contract-interpretation question.
Was $54 million owed to winning traders?
No such payout total is established by the cited sources. The approximately $54 million figure comes from the plaintiffs’ complaint and describes trading volume across all contract dates. It is not an independently audited amount owed to winning “yes” traders, nor does it show how much any particular user stood to receive.
Trading volume and payout liability are different measures: the complaint’s figure counts activity across the contracts, while a payout calculation would require details such as positions, prices, contract dates, and the settlement terms applied. The available material does not provide a verified aggregate of losses or unpaid winnings.
What did Kalshi offer affected traders?
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said the company would reimburse fees and net losses and make similar exceptions clearer in future markets. Bloomberg Law reported that Kalshi would present such markets “so traders can see the exception more clearly before they trade.” The commitment to reimburse fees and net losses is not the same as agreeing to pay the full value plaintiffs say winning positions should have received.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesThe complaint also quotes an email Kalshi allegedly sent affected users on February 28, 2026: “we understand that many users did not have a full understanding of the rules for this market.” That sentence is reproduced in the plaintiffs’ filing; the cited material does not identify the email’s author.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Did the Khamenei bettors sue?
Yes. Adam Risch and Yonatan Gliksman filed a proposed class action against KalshiEX LLC and other defendants in federal court in California on March 5, 2026, according to the complaint and Bloomberg Law. The complaint alleges that the market summary and disclosure of the carveout misled users. Filing a proposed class action does not mean a court has certified a class or accepted the allegations.
A Docket Nexus index reports a June 3, 2026 termination entry but cautions that its docket record may be incomplete and does not state how the case ended. That index does not establish a final disposition. The available sources do not confirm a ruling on the merits or the lawsuit’s ultimate outcome.
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How the dispute unfolded
- January 2026: The complaint says the market opened around January 8.
- February 28, 2026: After strikes on Iran and reports confirming Khamenei’s death, Kalshi froze or settled the market using its death-related exception, according to the complaint and The Washington Post.
- March 1, 2026: Mansour said Kalshi would reimburse fees and net losses and clarify future disclosures, as reported by Bloomberg Law.
- March 5, 2026: Risch and Gliksman filed their proposed class action in federal court in California.
- June 3, 2026: Docket Nexus lists a termination entry but does not state the disposition and warns its record may be incomplete.
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