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The Money Desk · Blog
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Indian States’ Debt Is a Concern—but It Depends on Their Ability to Manage It

Indian states’ debt merits attention, but a headline total cannot show whether a particular state can manage it. Revenue capacity, recurring costs, interest, investment and less-visible liabilities all matter.
From TheFinanceBase Team5 min to read

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State borrowing is not automatically a sign of economic failure. It becomes a serious concern when a government cannot reliably cover recurring costs, service its debt and fund essential services without relying on ever more borrowing. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in December 2024 that states’ total outstanding liabilities had declined but remained above their pre-pandemic level; a separate 2025-26 analysis by PRS Legislative Research says aggregate state debt is still above the recommended level. Those findings warrant scrutiny, not a blanket verdict on every state.

What the latest broad assessments say about state debt

The RBI’s December 2024 State Finances: A Study of Budgets covers state actuals through 2022-23 and budget estimates through 2024-25. Its foreword says: “While States’ total outstanding liabilities have been declining, they remain above the pre-pandemic level.” PRS Legislative Research’s 2025-26 state-finance analysis offers a newer aggregate assessment and says state debt remains higher than the recommended level. These are findings from reports with different coverage periods, not two points in a single, directly comparable time series.

Neither statement establishes that every state is in distress. Nor does the material establish a single debt-to-output ratio at which a state automatically becomes unable to manage its economy. The size of the debt matters, but so do the state’s revenue base, recurring spending, interest costs and what borrowing pays for.

Why the spending mix matters

Debt is harder to manage when a large share of revenue is already committed to recurring obligations. PRS reports that, in aggregate for 2023-24, states spent 53% of revenue receipts on salaries, pensions and interest payments. That combined figure is not an interest-only measure, and it does not describe every state individually. PRS also reports that subsidies accounted for 9% of aggregate revenue receipts that year. That share alone does not show that subsidies are wasteful or that any particular state spends the same proportion.

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Aggregate spending measure Share of revenue receipts Scope and meaning
Salaries, pensions and interest payments 53% Aggregate state spending composition in 2023-24, reported by PRS Legislative Research in 2025; the figure combines three categories and is not a state-by-state or interest-only measure.
Subsidies 9% Aggregate state spending composition in 2023-24, reported by PRS Legislative Research in 2025; the share does not by itself establish whether the spending is wasteful.

A key distinction is whether recurring revenue covers recurring expenditure. A revenue shortfall can mean borrowing is helping sustain day-to-day costs rather than building assets that may support future growth. That does not make every revenue deficit proof of mismanagement, but it is a reason to examine the budget’s structure alongside the headline debt figure.

How to judge whether borrowing is becoming a problem

Compare more than the nominal amount owed. A larger state economy and stronger revenue base may give a government more capacity to service debt than a smaller or weaker one with the same nominal liabilities. Debt relative to gross state domestic product (GSDP) helps with that comparison, but it is not a complete sustainability test.

  • Debt and total liabilities relative to GSDP: Check the accounting definition and year, and whether the figure is an actual, provisional account, revised estimate or budget estimate. A ratio can indicate scale relative to the economy; it cannot, by itself, establish whether the state can repay.
  • Fiscal and revenue balances: The fiscal balance shows the government’s overall borrowing requirement. The revenue balance helps show whether recurring receipts cover recurring spending. They answer different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable.
  • Interest burden: Look at interest payments in relation to revenue receipts to understand how much room remains for services and investment. Do not use the 53% combined salaries, pensions and interest figure as a proxy for interest costs alone.
  • Spending and investment quality: Ask whether borrowing finances capital investment—such as infrastructure—or mainly supports recurring expenditure. The RBI calls for fiscal prudence while prioritizing growth-enhancing capital spending.
  • Revenue-raising capacity and transfers: Consider what the state can realistically raise from its tax and non-tax base, as well as the role of transfers. A weak revenue base can restrict public services and investment even before a debt crisis occurs.
  • Guarantees and off-budget borrowing: Headline debt may not capture the full public-sector risk. The RBI recommends better disclosure of outstanding liabilities, off-budget borrowings and guarantees.

Why state-specific results can differ

Uttarakhand illustrates why aggregate concern should not be mistaken for uniform distress. In its audit of Uttarakhand’s state finances, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) reported a revenue surplus of ₹3,341 crore in 2023-24 and a fiscal deficit of 2.24% of GSDP, compared with a 3.00% limit. The report put debt at 23.18% of GSDP, excluding ₹5,649 crore in back-to-back GST-compensation loans received through 2021-22.

These audited figures are a specific state and year, not a representative sample or a current ranking of states. The debt figure’s stated exclusion also shows why accounting scope matters when making comparisons. A ranking would require comparable definitions and figures across states; the CAG’s 2024-25 audit reports, published during 2026, are available, but their availability alone does not establish a comparable all-state ranking.

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What a more sustainable borrowing framework could look like

The RBI’s 2024 report proposes a risk-based fiscal framework that can account for counter-cyclical policy, a medium-term expenditure framework, a transparent and time-bound debt-consolidation path, and fuller public reporting of liabilities, off-budget borrowing and guarantees. It also recommends a “golden rule”: current or revenue expenditure should be financed from current revenue, while borrowing may finance capital expenditure. This is the RBI’s recommended framework, not a universally binding rule already followed by every state.

The logic is to distinguish borrowing that can support future productive capacity from borrowing that adds to recurring obligations without strengthening the future revenue base. Even capital projects need careful selection and execution; classifying expenditure as capital does not, by itself, prove that a loan is affordable or well spent.

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What the evidence does—and does not—show

The RBI’s December 2024 assessment and PRS’s 2025-26 analysis support concern about the aggregate burden and direction of state borrowing. They do not show that all states are failing to manage their economies, identify a universal debt threshold for crisis, or establish a current ranking of the most distressed states. To assess a particular state, use figures from the same year and accounting basis, and consider its liabilities, balances, interest burden, revenue capacity and spending—not just its debt-to-GSDP ratio.

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