Possibly—but a Tufts estimate is not a prediction that 9.3 million people will lose their jobs. The American AI Jobs Risk Index estimates that 9.3 million U.S. jobs could be vulnerable to displacement over the next two to five years under its median AI-adoption scenario. The estimate ranges from 2.7 million to 19.5 million across alternative scenarios, and the model does not include jobs that AI may create.
What the Tufts report says about jobs at risk
Digital Planet at The Fletcher School, Tufts University, developed the American AI Jobs Risk Index to estimate how AI adoption could affect work across 784 occupations, 20 industry sectors, 50 states, and 530 metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. Its figures are modeled estimates—not a tally of layoffs that have already happened.
For the next two to five years, the index’s median adoption scenario puts 9.3 million U.S. jobs at risk of displacement. Across the alternative adoption scenarios, the estimate ranges from 2.7 million to 19.5 million. Tufts also estimates $200 billion to $1.5 trillion in annual household income at risk, with a midpoint of about $757 billion. These are projections from the 2026 index, not guaranteed outcomes. Tufts Digital Planet’s index
Exposure to AI is not the same as losing a job
A job can be exposed to AI because some of its tasks could be done or assisted by AI. That alone does not mean the job will disappear. The Tufts index aims to estimate vulnerability to displacement: whether AI exposure may translate into job losses or substantial restructuring.
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That distinction matters especially for knowledge work. AI may take on parts of writing, analysis, programming, or design while people retain responsibility for judgment, communication, domain expertise, and review. The index flags potential disruption at the occupation level; it does not establish that every worker in a flagged occupation has the same risk.
Which occupations and industries rank as more vulnerable?
In Tufts’ modeled estimates, Writers and Authors have 57% of projected jobs affected; Computer Programmers and Web and Digital Interface Designers each have 55%. These percentages describe the index’s projections, not the share of workers certain to be laid off.
At the industry level, the index estimates about 6% vulnerability across industries overall. Its highest reported figures are 18% for Information and 16% each for Finance and Insurance and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services. Those industry averages do not mean every occupation or employer within a sector faces the same outcome. Tufts Digital Planet’s occupation and industry estimates
Why the city rankings depend on what you measure
Tufts identifies San Jose, Washington, Boulder, and Durham–Chapel Hill among the most vulnerable regions when measured by the share of local jobs at risk. By total number of jobs, the largest labor markets—New York, Los Angeles, Washington, Chicago, and Dallas—rank among the leaders.
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These are different comparisons: a high percentage signals a larger share of a local workforce potentially affected, while a high job count can reflect the size of the labor market. Neither ranking by itself says how many people will actually be displaced.
What the estimate leaves out
- AI-driven job creation: The current assessment does not account for jobs AI may create because Tufts says robust data were not available. The estimates therefore are not a complete forecast of net employment change.
- Adoption uncertainty: The broad range reflects different AI-adoption scenarios. The 9.3 million median estimate is not inevitable.
- Change over time: Tufts says the index will be updated as AI capabilities and labor-market conditions evolve. Its projections should be read as estimates from the 2026 version, not fixed long-term outcomes.
The index also identifies 4.9 million workers in 33 “tipping point” occupations, where modeled displacement risk ranges from under 10% to over 40% depending on how quickly AI is adopted. That wide swing underscores how much the pace of adoption can change the outlook. Tufts Digital Planet’s estimates and limitations
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What workers and employers can do with the findings
The figures are not a personalized forecast, but they can help frame practical questions: Which parts of your role are routine and could be automated? Which depend on judgment, context, relationships, or accountability? Could AI change the tasks you do without eliminating the role?
Tufts recommends reskilling, internal mobility, AI literacy, subject-matter expertise, critical thinking, and human review in consequential employment decisions. These steps may help people and organizations adapt, but they cannot guarantee job security. Bhaskar Chakravorti, Dean of Global Business at The Fletcher School and Chair of Digital Planet, said: “The jobs of the future will be secured by those with a combination of subject-matter expertise, critical-thinking skills for human judgment, and knowledge of AI and how to use it.” The Fletcher School’s launch summary
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