USDA’s latest available outlook does not confirm that grain prices have made a major low. Its September 11, 2026 balance sheets showed higher U.S. season-average farm-price forecasts for wheat, corn and soybeans, alongside tighter U.S. corn and soybean stocks. But global wheat stocks rose, and the signals differ by crop. The October WASDE was scheduled for October 9, so its results were not yet available as of October 8.
What USDA’s September outlook says about prices
The September 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-675), published by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board, raised its U.S. 2026/27 season-average farm-price forecasts for all three crops below. These are forecasts of prices received by U.S. producers across a marketing year—not live futures quotations or local cash bids. A higher forecast is not proof that a market has found a floor.
| Crop and measure | September 2026 outlook for 2026/27 | Change from August |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat: U.S. season-average farm-price forecast | $6.40 per bushel | Up $0.20 per bushel |
| Wheat: global ending stocks | 276.3 million metric tons | Raised; the amount of the revision is not stated in the September summary |
| Corn: U.S. production | 15.8 billion bushels | Down 213 million bushels |
| Corn: U.S. ending stocks | 1.6 billion bushels | Down 86 million bushels |
| Corn: U.S. season-average farm-price forecast | $4.80 per bushel | Up $0.30 per bushel |
| Soybeans: U.S. ending stocks | 310 million bushels | Down 10 million bushels |
| Soybeans: U.S. season-average farm-price forecast | $12.00 per bushel | Up $0.60 per bushel |
All figures in the table are USDA forecasts for the 2026/27 marketing year, not observed prices or guarantees. USDA revises its monthly estimates as information changes.
Why the signals differ by crop
Wheat: a higher U.S. price forecast, but more global stocks
USDA raised its U.S. wheat farm-price forecast while also raising projected global wheat ending stocks to 276.3 million metric tons. Those measures describe different geographies and parts of the balance sheet. Together, they do not establish a broad tightening of wheat supply or confirm a price bottom.
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Corn: lower U.S. production and stocks
The September U.S. corn outlook cut projected production by 213 million bushels and ending stocks by 86 million bushels from August, while raising the farm-price forecast by $0.30 per bushel. Those supply-side revisions can support prices, but the eventual market response also depends on demand and on what traders had expected before the report.
Soybeans: stocks eased as the forecast price rose
Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks fell by 10 million bushels from August, and USDA raised its farm-price forecast by $0.60 per bushel. This is a more supportive U.S. balance-sheet signal than an increase in stocks would be, but it remains a forecast that can change with later production and demand estimates.
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Coarse grains: global supply also matters
In its September 2026 update, USDA’s Economic Research Service reduced its 2026/27 estimate of global coarse-grains production by 5.1 million metric tons and projected global coarse-grains ending stocks by 1.6 million metric tons. These global measures add context to the U.S. corn outlook, but they are not a substitute for examining corn separately or for considering demand.
Why a forecast revision is not the same as a market signal
Markets react not only to whether a USDA estimate rose or fell, but also to how it compares with expectations. CME Group’s explanation of grain-market reports says ending stocks below expectations tend to be bullish for futures, while stocks above expectations tend to be bearish. A revision can therefore be supportive on its own and still disappoint traders if they had anticipated a larger change. These are tendencies, not guarantees of price direction.
Farm-price forecasts, futures and local cash prices also answer different questions. The USDA farm-price estimate is a marketing-year average for U.S. producers. Futures are exchange-traded contracts; local cash bids reflect the local market and basis as well as the relevant futures price. The September WASDE figures are not live exchange quotes or a report of current local bids.
What to watch before deciding whether prices have bottomed
A bottom is easier to claim after the fact than to verify in real time. Instead of relying on one headline or one month’s forecast, compare new estimates with both the prior USDA balance sheet and market expectations, and keep each crop and geography distinct.
- Production and yield: Check whether USDA raises or lowers estimates and how those revisions change projected supply.
- Acreage and crop progress: Follow acreage estimates and weekly crop-progress reporting for changes that may affect production expectations.
- Use and exports: Track consumption, export projections and weekly U.S. export sales alongside production. Supply alone does not determine ending stocks.
- Ending stocks: Compare the new figure with the previous estimate and with what the market expected, rather than treating a decline as an automatic price forecast.
- U.S. and global balances: A tighter U.S. outlook can coexist with a different global picture, as September’s wheat estimates illustrate.
- Price measure: For a farm sale, use relevant local cash bids and contract terms; a USDA national season-average forecast does not tell you what a buyer will pay at your location.
USDA publishes WASDE monthly. CME Group’s 2026 grain-market guide also describes quarterly Grain Stocks reports, annual Prospective Plantings and Acreage reports, weekly Crop Progress updates and weekly U.S. Export Sales reports. Each release can change the supply-and-demand picture; none guarantees that prices will rise or fall.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What this means for a farmer deciding when to sell
The September numbers may be relevant context, but they do not identify a single best selling date. A practical decision starts with the farm’s own price, delivery and cash-flow needs rather than treating a national forecast as a target. Compare available local bids and contract terms with the prices and timing needed to meet obligations, and consider the consequences of selling now versus retaining grain. A market view is uncertain; it should not be mistaken for a guaranteed price floor or personalized financial advice.
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As of October 8, 2026, the latest monthly WASDE available was the September 11 report. USDA had scheduled its October WASDE for October 9; that report’s results are not reflected here.
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