Not on a sustained basis. Omdia estimated that global smartphone shipments rose 1% year over year in Q1 2026, then fell 6% in Q2. IDC also estimated a Q2 decline and, in its September 2026 forecast, projected a sharp drop for the full year. The early increase was real for that quarter, but it does not show that the market has returned to lasting growth.
What the latest global smartphone figures show
The reported figures measure shipments, not necessarily phones bought by consumers at retail. Shipment estimates from different tracking firms can also differ because they come from separate research trackers and may use different methods or scopes.
| Period and publisher | Shipment estimate or forecast | Year-over-year change | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 — Omdia | 298.5 million | Up 1% | Quarterly smartphone shipments; estimate reported April 30, 2026. Omdia’s Q1 release. |
| Q2 2026 — Omdia | 272.0 million | Down 6% | Quarterly smartphone shipments; estimate reported July 30, 2026. Omdia’s Q2 release. |
| Q2 2026 — IDC | 276.3 million | Down 7.4% | New branded-device shipments, excluding refurbished units; final results dated August 28, 2026. IDC’s smartphone market-share table. |
| Full year 2026 — IDC | Just over 1 billion units forecast | Down 16.7% forecast | Full-year shipment forecast, not a final count; IDC page updated September 17, 2026. IDC’s smartphone market outlook. |
The two Q2 trackers should not be averaged or treated as one correcting the other: Omdia estimated 272.0 million shipments and a 6% decline, while IDC estimated 276.3 million and a 7.4% decline. Each figure belongs to its publisher and its tracking series.
Why one quarter of growth does not prove a recovery
Omdia said Q1 momentum was supported by vendors bringing shipments forward ahead of anticipated memory and component inflation. That can lift shipments in one quarter without signaling stronger ongoing consumer demand. Omdia also reported that macroeconomic pressures weighed on end-consumer demand.
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In Q2, Omdia linked the decline to memory-cost pressures disrupting supply and affecting pricing, product portfolios, and channel strategies. It said a broad-based recovery in shipment volume is unlikely until component costs ease. Taken together, the two quarters show growth followed by contraction—not a steady upward trend.
How rising prices can coexist with falling shipments
IDC’s September 2026 outlook forecast that total smartphone market value would rise 6.3% to $613 billion even as shipment units fell 16.7%. IDC attributed the divergence to higher prices. Market value is a forecast of spending across the market; it is not evidence that more phones are being shipped or that consumer demand has strengthened.
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Component and memory costs help explain the split. IDC said cost pressure particularly affects low-end vendors and devices. Omdia described vendors reconsidering prices, product portfolios, and channel strategies. If fewer units ship while prices rise, shipment volume can weaken even as the value of the market increases.
What the figures mean for consumers
Shipment data are useful for understanding the direction of the device market, but they are not a direct count of completed consumer purchases. IDC’s Q2 table specifically covers newly shipped branded devices and excludes refurbished phones; neither publisher’s shipment figure should be relabeled as retail sell-through.
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For a household considering a phone replacement, these figures alone do not show that a particular model is becoming scarce, that a specific brand is raising prices, or that buying now will save money. They describe an industry-wide shipment and cost environment, not a recommendation for an individual purchase.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read future smartphone market headlines
- Check the period. A quarter’s increase can be followed by a decline, as Omdia’s Q1 and Q2 2026 estimates illustrate.
- Check the publisher. Keep IDC and Omdia estimates separate; different trackers can produce different totals and growth rates.
- Check the measure. Distinguish shipments from consumer sales, retail sell-through, and market value.
- Check whether a number is a forecast. IDC’s 16.7% full-year contraction and 6.3% market-value gain were forecasts updated September 17, 2026, not final year-end results.
IDC Senior Research Director Nabila Popal characterized the downturn as uneven, saying it favored premium players while punishing vendors exposed to the low end. That assessment points to an important limitation of global totals: they can mask sharply different outcomes among price segments and manufacturers.
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