The headline referred to calendar year 2023: on November 30 of that year, USDA estimated net farm income at $151 billion, then the second-highest total on record behind 2022’s $182.8 billion. It is not a claim about 2026. USDA’s September 3, 2026 forecast instead puts 2026 net farm income at $158.4 billion, below 2025 in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. USDA ERS updates its forecast during the year, so these current figures remain forecasts, not final results.
What the 2023 headline meant
The November 30, 2023 report said USDA expected U.S. net farm income (NFI) to reach $151 billion for calendar 2023. At the time, that would have been the second-highest total on record, behind the $182.8 billion recorded in 2022. The ranking belongs to the forecast and record comparison as reported then; it should not be read as a newly recalculated ranking in USDA’s current data series.
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack described 2023 as “One of the best years on record for the overall farm sector.” That characterization referred to the overall sector, not to the income of every farm or farm household.
What USDA forecasts for 2026
In its September 3, 2026 outlook, USDA forecasts NFI of $158.4 billion for calendar 2026. That is $4.3 billion, or 2.6 percent, below 2025 in nominal dollars. After adjusting for inflation, USDA projects a $9.1 billion, or 5.5 percent, decline. Even with that expected decrease, the inflation-adjusted forecast remains above the 2006–25 average, according to USDA.
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Nominal dollars are the amounts without an inflation adjustment; real, or inflation-adjusted, dollars account for changes in purchasing power. The two comparisons answer different questions: nominal figures compare the reported dollar totals, while real figures better indicate how the income level compares after accounting for inflation.
Net farm income is not net cash farm income
USDA publishes two related but distinct measures. NFI is its broad measure of farm-sector profits: it includes cash and noncash income and expenses and accounts for changes in commodity inventories. Net cash farm income (NCFI) is more cash-oriented. It compares farm cash receipts and farm-related income, including government payments, with cash expenses. It excludes noncash items such as inventory changes, economic depreciation, and imputed rent from operator dwellings.
Rank #2
For 2026, USDA forecasts NCFI at $176.4 billion, up $0.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, from 2025 in nominal terms. In inflation-adjusted dollars, however, NCFI is forecast to fall $4.6 billion, or 2.5 percent. NFI and NCFI can therefore show different directions or magnitudes; a comparison is meaningful only when the measure and dollar basis are identified.
What sits behind the forecast
USDA’s September 2026 outlook forecasts $540.3 billion in total farm cash receipts and $492.8 billion in total production expenses for calendar 2026. It also forecasts $47.4 billion in direct government farm payments, $19.5 billion more than in 2025, largely because of expected increases in commodity-linked payments and supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesThese are separate components and measures, not interchangeable versions of net income. USDA says its government-payment figure excludes USDA loans and Federal Crop Insurance Corporation indemnity payments, which are treated separately. Cash receipts and expenses also should not be mistaken for the broader NFI calculation, which includes noncash items.
Income, household finances, and farm wealth are different stories
Farm-sector balance sheet
Annual income measures a year’s flow; a balance sheet measures assets, debt, and equity at a point in time. USDA forecasts 2026 farm-sector assets of $4.47 trillion, debt of $605.1 billion, and equity of $3.86 trillion in nominal dollars. Equity is forecast to rise 2.7 percent nominally but decline slightly—0.3 percent—after inflation.
Farm-household income
USDA forecasts median total farm-household income of $108,460 in 2026, while median farm income earned by farm households is forecast at -$467. Those household figures do not contradict the sector-wide NFI forecast: they describe different populations and measures, and many farm households also receive off-farm income. Household income is not a proxy for aggregate farm-sector net income.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read future USDA updates
USDA ERS updates these forecasts as additional information becomes available, and estimates may be revised as underlying data are updated. The data product listed December 2, 2026, as the next scheduled forecast release. When comparing figures from different releases, check that they refer to the same calendar year, the same measure (NFI or NCFI), and the same dollar basis (nominal or inflation-adjusted); also distinguish an outlook from a finalized outcome.
For the latest figures and release schedule, consult the USDA ERS Farm Sector Income Forecast.
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