Todd Bowles was the leading named candidate in a Kalshi next-coach-out market on Oct. 5, 2026, at 61%. That market covered an NFL head coach being fired, resigning, or leaving before Feb. 15, 2027. A separate report dated Oct. 6 put Bowles at -150 with BetOnline and DeMeco Ryans at +150. These are dated snapshots from different operators, not a guarantee or a single consensus ranking.
Who is favored to be the next NFL coach to leave?
In Covers’ Oct. 5, 2026 report on Kalshi, Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles led the named candidates at 61%. The market’s outcome includes a coach being fired, resigning, or otherwise leaving before Feb. 15, 2027—not only an in-season firing. Covers’ report describes an early-stage market where limited trading volume can produce sharp percentage swings.
A different snapshot, attributed to BetOnline by Mr. Gamble on Oct. 6, listed Bowles at -150, equivalent to a 60.0% implied probability, and Houston Texans coach DeMeco Ryans at +150, equivalent to 40.0%. That report is separate from Covers’ Kalshi figures: operators, dates, candidate lists, and potentially event terms differ.
Reported odds by operator and date
| Coach | Team | Reported figure | Source and date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Bowles | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Kalshi: 61% | Covers, Oct. 5, 2026 |
| Aaron Glenn | New York Jets | Kalshi: 25% | Covers, Oct. 5, 2026 |
| Jim Harbaugh | Los Angeles Chargers | Kalshi: 19% | Covers, Oct. 5, 2026 |
| Nick Sirianni | Philadelphia Eagles | Kalshi: 8% | Covers, Oct. 5, 2026 |
| Matt LaFleur | Green Bay Packers | Kalshi: 7% | Covers, Oct. 5, 2026 |
| Todd Bowles | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | BetOnline report: -150; 60.0% implied probability | Mr. Gamble, Oct. 6, 2026 |
| DeMeco Ryans | Houston Texans | BetOnline report: +150; 40.0% implied probability | Mr. Gamble, Oct. 6, 2026 |
Do not merge these figures into one ranking. Kalshi’s reported percentages and BetOnline’s reported prices are different markets, and the candidate sets are not the same. Odds can change; check the operator’s current market, event wording, and timestamp before relying on a figure.
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What the odds do—and do not—mean
Market prices are a snapshot, not a forecast with certainty
A percentage or betting price indicates how a market is pricing an outcome at a particular time. It does not establish that a coach will leave, nor does it guarantee that traders agree on the same event terms across providers. Covers specifically cautioned that the Kalshi market was early and thinly traded, making its percentages vulnerable to sharp moves.
American odds and implied probability
For negative American odds, implied probability before accounting for the bookmaker’s margin is the absolute odds divided by that number plus 100. Thus -150 corresponds to 150 / (150 + 100), or 60.0%. For positive odds, divide 100 by the odds plus 100; +150 corresponds to 100 / (150 + 100), or 40.0%. The two BetOnline-attributed figures total 100% in this report, but that does not make the separate Kalshi percentages directly comparable.
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Check the event definition
“First coach fired” can be narrower than a market that resolves on a firing, resignation, or any departure by a deadline. Covers’ cited Kalshi event includes all three types of exit before Feb. 15, 2027. Read the operator’s full resolution rules: the exact deadline and what counts as leaving determine what a contract or bet is actually about.
How to assess a coach’s hot-seat risk
Odds alone do not explain why a coach is being priced as a candidate. Bookies.com describes its own board as hypothetical editorial estimates, not sportsbook prices available for trading. Its stated assessment factors offer a useful checklist, but not a validated formula for predicting a departure.
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- Results and game context: Consider recent outcomes and whether losses were close or lopsided, rather than treating the win-loss record as the whole story.
- Tenure and contract timeline: A coach’s time in the job and contract situation can shape how an organization weighs a change.
- Ownership and organizational pattern: Consider whether the organization has a history of making rapid coaching changes.
- Roster expectations and investment: Compare the team’s performance with expectations and the resources committed to the roster.
- Market mechanics: Confirm the provider, timestamp, event definition, candidate availability, and liquidity before comparing prices.
Bookies.com also reported that 10 teams made head-coaching changes for the 2026 season; that is the publisher’s count for changes made for that season. Its Sept. 29 board is described as hypothetical and built from preseason pressure rankings, weekly results, and contract situations, not as a live market. See Bookies.com’s methodology and hot-seat tracker.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to compare odds responsibly
- Start with the source and timestamp. A market snapshot from Oct. 5 is not a live quote on Oct. 8 or later.
- Match the event rules. Check whether the outcome is strictly a firing or includes resignation and other departures, and note the resolution deadline.
- Keep operators separate. Do not combine Kalshi probabilities with odds attributed to BetOnline as though they came from the same board.
- Distinguish market data from editorial estimates. Bookies.com explicitly labels its numbers hypothetical; they are analysis rather than prices readers can trade.
- Account for uncertainty. Thin trading and changing candidate lists can make apparent precision misleading. Treat a quoted price as a dated indicator, not a dependable prediction.
The Sporting News headline syndicated by Yahoo asked, “Who will be the first NFL coach fired?” That phrasing captures the reader question, but the market wording matters: a coach who resigns or otherwise leaves may count under some definitions even if the event is not technically a firing. Yahoo Sports’ syndicated article is dated Oct. 2, 2026.
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