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In January 2025, Duolingo reported that the number of U.S. learners studying Mandarin had risen 216% year over year, while some TikTok users joined the Chinese app Xiaohongshu, widely called RedNote. The two developments coincided with a looming U.S. TikTok ban deadline; the available reporting does not show that RedNote alone caused Duolingo’s increase or that all new learners came from the migration.
The “upcoming” deadline in the original headline refers to January 2025, not a current deadline. Later legal and executive actions changed the timeline, and the sources cited here do not establish TikTok’s legal or operating status as of October 8, 2026.
What happened in January 2025?
As the U.S. TikTok deadline approached, a wave of users began exploring Xiaohongshu, known in English-language coverage as RedNote. Duolingo, meanwhile, reported a sharp rise in U.S. Mandarin learners. The timing made the trends easy to connect, but the figures describe separate events.
- Duolingo: The company reported a 216% year-over-year increase in U.S. Mandarin learners during the January 2025 news cycle. NPR and TechCrunch reported the figure, but the reviewed coverage gives no absolute learner count or baseline. NPR and TechCrunch
- RedNote: The Associated Press reported on January 14, 2025, that Xiaohongshu had more than 160,000 posts under #tiktokrefugee. The same report described Xiaohongshu as having 300 million monthly active users at that time—not as a current user count. Associated Press
- TikTok: The Supreme Court affirmed the judgment in TikTok Inc. v. Garland on January 17, 2025. The law took effect January 19, after which the executive branch directed a pause in enforcement. Supreme Court opinion and January 20 executive order
Why were TikTok users trying RedNote?
Some users sought another place to post and interact as the TikTok deadline approached. The AP described Xiaohongshu as an app combining short video, posting, and e-commerce. It reported that the app became Apple’s top free app in the United States during the influx, and that new arrivals used #tiktokrefugee to introduce themselves and ask how to navigate the platform.
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That overlap does not make RedNote a one-for-one TikTok replacement. The available reporting describes some shared formats and features, not a comprehensive product comparison. TikTok’s recommendation system, privacy practices, moderation, and current availability cannot be directly compared with RedNote on the basis of these sources.
Does the RedNote migration explain Duolingo’s Mandarin increase?
Not on the evidence available. Duolingo’s reported 216% increase was year over year among U.S. Mandarin learners; the reporting does not provide a headcount, a breakdown of learners’ reasons, or evidence linking the increase specifically to RedNote. The AP documented a RedNote influx during the same news moment, but temporal overlap is not proof of cause.
For someone curious about RedNote, studying Mandarin may help with language barriers, but a short course or phrasebook is an optional starting aid—not a requirement for using the app and not a route to fluency by itself. The reported Duolingo percentage should not be read as a measure of current demand or as a forecast.
What happened after the January 2025 deadline?
The January deadline did not settle the platform’s longer-term status. On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump directed the Attorney General not to enforce the Act for 75 days, saying the restrictions had become effective on January 19. A September 16 order extended the enforcement delay through December 16, 2025. January 20 order and September 16 order
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On September 25, 2025, a White House fact sheet described a proposed U.S. joint-venture framework and said the administration considered it a qualifying divestiture. That statement describes the administration’s position on a proposal; it does not establish that a transaction was completed. The cited material does not verify TikTok’s legal or operational status on October 8, 2026. White House fact sheet
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to interpret the numbers
| Figure | What it measures | Qualification |
|---|---|---|
| 216% | Increase in U.S. Mandarin learners reported by Duolingo | Year over year, reported in January 2025; no absolute count or baseline supplied in the reviewed coverage. NPR |
| More than 160,000 | Posts using #tiktokrefugee on Xiaohongshu | AP report dated January 14, 2025; a period-specific count, not a current total. Associated Press |
| 300 million | Xiaohongshu monthly active users | Platform scale as reported by AP in January 2025, not a current measure. Associated Press |
| More than 170 million in the U.S.; more than one billion worldwide | TikTok users cited in the Supreme Court opinion | Figures from the record discussed in the Court’s 2025 opinion; not current user counts. Supreme Court opinion |
The headline story is therefore a snapshot of January 2025: a reported increase in language learners, a documented migration to a Chinese social app, and a high-stakes TikTok deadline. The sources establish coincidence, not a direct causal chain, and later U.S. actions mean the original “upcoming ban” framing is dated.
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