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What does the $28 billion figure count?
The figure is a secondhand account: Le Monde reported that Chainalysis estimated “at least $28 billion linked to illicit activities” passed through exchanges across 2024 and 2025. The report does not establish whether the total represents unique proceeds, repeated transfers of the same funds, or another transaction-flow measure. It also does not disclose enough methodology to resolve that question. Read the report and its description of the estimate.
“Linked to illicit activities” is not the same as “proven laundered.” A transaction may be associated with an address or activity believed to be illicit without establishing, in court or otherwise, the origin, ownership, purpose, or final destination of every dollar. The $28 billion should therefore be described as a reported estimate of illicit-linked funds passing through exchanges—not as a confirmed amount of money laundering.
How does it compare with newer crypto-crime estimates?
Chainalysis’s January 2026 report gives a broader but differently bounded view: it says illicit cryptocurrency addresses received at least $154 billion in 2025. The company calls this a lower-bound estimate because totals can grow as it identifies additional illicit addresses and adds historical activity. It also says illicit flows were below 1% of its attributed transaction volume. These figures describe separate measures and should not be added to, or treated as direct confirmation of, the exchange-specific $28 billion claim.
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| Figure | What it describes | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| At least $28 billion, 2024–2025 | Illicit-linked funds reported as passing through exchanges; attributed by Le Monde to a Chainalysis estimate. | The reviewed report does not disclose a transaction-flow definition or establish whether funds are unique proceeds. Source. |
| At least $154 billion, 2025 | Receipts by illicit cryptocurrency addresses, in Chainalysis’s estimate. | A lower bound based on identified addresses, not an exchange-only figure. Source. |
| Below 1%, 2025 | Illicit flows as a share of Chainalysis’s attributed crypto transaction volume. | The denominator is inflows to known services, excluding internal transfers; it is not all activity across every crypto asset, venue, or transfer type. Source. |
| $40.9 billion, later revised to $57.2 billion for 2024 | Chainalysis’s earlier and updated estimates of illicit crypto activity for that year. | The revision illustrates how identification of illicit addresses and historical accounting can change estimates; it does not, by itself, establish error or misconduct. Source. |
The below-1% figure is not a rebuttal to the $28 billion estimate: a large dollar amount can be a small share of a much larger measured denominator. Nor does it show that illicit activity is below 1% of every crypto transfer. Chainalysis defines its denominator more narrowly, and the $28 billion report does not provide enough detail to align the two measures.
Why do exchange routes and stablecoins matter?
Criminals may use cash-for-crypto desks and online exchange services to convert proceeds or move value across borders. The Le Monde report describes a desk offering to exchange the equivalent of $9,757 in crypto for $10,001 in cash. AML specialist Pamela Clegg interpreted that particular deal as a sign that a criminal syndicate needed to offload cash. It is one reported example—not a typical rate or evidence that all cash-for-crypto transactions are criminal.
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Stablecoins are a major focus of current risk analysis because their price stability, liquidity, and interoperability serve legitimate users as well as potentially facilitating criminal misuse. FATF’s March 2026 report cites a Chainalysis estimate that stablecoins made up 84% of illicit virtual-asset transaction volume in 2025. That is Chainalysis’s attributed estimate, not an independent transaction count produced by FATF. FATF’s report on stablecoins and unhosted wallets identifies two particular control challenges:
- Peer-to-peer transfers through unhosted wallets: a transfer can occur without a regulated virtual-asset service provider (VASP) or financial institution participating in the transaction.
- Cross-chain activity: moving assets between blockchains can complicate monitoring and may fall outside some controls.
These are risk factors, not proof that a stablecoin, an unhosted wallet, or an individual transfer is illicit. The practical challenge is finding ways to identify and investigate suspicious activity without treating ordinary use as criminal.
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What do the regulatory findings—and allegations—show?
FATF standards call on jurisdictions to understand virtual-asset risks, license or register VASPs, and supervise them. Providers are expected to conduct customer due diligence, keep records, report suspicious transactions, and securely transmit information about the originator and beneficiary of qualifying transfers. The standards provide a framework; their effect depends on national implementation and supervision. FATF’s overview of virtual-asset standards explains these obligations.
In its July 2026 update, FATF said 83% of surveyed jurisdictions had passed Travel Rule legislation, up from 73% in 2025. Those percentages measure legislation among surveyed jurisdictions—not whether every covered business complies or whether authorities enforce the rules effectively. FATF also reported continuing gaps in supervision and enforcement, including challenges involving offshore VASPs and DeFi. Read FATF’s 2026 update.
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Specific investigations should not be mistaken for findings of guilt. Le Monde reported that Binance was at the center of a French judicial investigation concerning alleged failures to meet due-diligence obligations related to money laundering and terrorist financing. It reported suspicions that funds from offences including drug trafficking and tax fraud were laundered because of alleged KYC shortcomings. Those remain allegations as described in the report, not a final legal determination.
The broader point in FATF President Giles Thomson’s statement is that criminal networks exploit cross-border gaps and uneven implementation. His warning is a policy assessment, not a measurement of how much money was laundered: he said the 2026 update showed networks continuing to abuse virtual assets for fraud, scams, sanctions evasion, and laundering proceeds while taking advantage of uneven national frameworks.
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What should readers conclude from the headline?
- The reported $28 billion is an estimate of illicit-linked funds passing through exchanges over two years, with important methodological details not established in the cited account.
- The $154 billion 2025 estimate counts receipts by identified illicit addresses and is explicitly a lower bound; it is not a like-for-like comparison.
- Chainalysis’s below-1% share uses a defined service-inflow denominator, rather than all possible crypto activity.
- Risk is concentrated in practical control problems—such as peer-to-peer transfers, cross-chain movement, and uneven oversight—not in an assumption that every crypto transaction is illicit.
None of these sources establishes that crypto is the dominant channel for global money laundering, and they do not supply a methodologically comparable total for laundering through fiat systems. The numbers are useful indicators of detected or attributed activity, but they cannot answer that broader comparison on their own.
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