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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteWith two fair six-sided dice, every roll has 36 equally likely ordered outcomes, but the totals are not equally likely. Seven appears six ways; 2 and 12 appear only one way each. That uneven distribution explains the main craps probabilities, why a point is more or less likely to repeat before a 7, and how true-odds payouts differ from a casino’s house edge.
How two dice create craps probabilities
Each die has six faces, so rolling two dice produces 6 × 6 = 36 equally likely ordered outcomes. For example, a total of 5 can be made as 1+4, 2+3, 3+2, or 4+1. Because different totals have different numbers of combinations, their probabilities differ.
| Total | Combinations out of 36 | Probability on one roll |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 1/36 |
| 3 | 2 | 2/36 |
| 4 | 3 | 3/36 |
| 5 | 4 | 4/36 |
| 6 | 5 | 5/36 |
| 7 | 6 | 6/36 |
| 8 | 5 | 5/36 |
| 9 | 4 | 4/36 |
| 10 | 3 | 3/36 |
| 11 | 2 | 2/36 |
| 12 | 1 | 1/36 |
The count for each total comes from the number of face combinations that add to it. Seven is the most common total, with 6/36, or 1/6, of possible outcomes. The table describes one roll, not the probability that a particular total will eventually appear during a hand.
How Pass Line bets resolve
A Pass Line bet has two phases. On the come-out roll, 7 or 11 wins; 2, 3, or 12 loses. A roll of 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 establishes that number as the point. The bet then wins if the point repeats before a 7 and loses if a 7 appears first. These rules are described in the MGM Resorts guide to craps.
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Once a point is set, rolls of totals other than the point or 7 do not resolve the Pass Line bet. The chance the point wins in this phase is therefore based on the point’s combinations compared with the six combinations for 7:
| Point | Point combinations | Point before 7 | Pass Line true-odds payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 or 10 | 3 | 3/(3+6) = 1/3 | 2:1 |
| 5 or 9 | 4 | 4/(4+6) = 2/5 | 3:2 |
| 6 or 8 | 5 | 5/(5+6) = 5/11 | 6:5 |
These are conditional probabilities: they apply after that point has already been established. They are not the overall chance that a Pass Line bet wins, because the come-out roll can also win, lose, or establish different points.
What true odds pay—and what they do not mean
After a point is established, a player may add an odds wager behind a Pass Line bet. Its payout reflects the relative frequency of the point and 7: 2:1 for 4 or 10, 3:2 for 5 or 9, and 6:5 for 6 or 8. These are called true odds because the payout matches the point-versus-7 probabilities in that phase.
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The odds wager itself has no house edge under these payouts. It is not a standalone bet, however: it must accompany the line wager. The Pass Line bet still has its own house edge, so adding odds reduces the edge as a percentage of the combined amount wagered without making the entire position fair.
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Don’t Pass generally reverses the Pass Line outcomes; in the MGM guide, 12 is a push rather than a loss on the come-out roll. Laying odds behind Don’t Pass also reverses the odds payout ratios. Exact rules and allowed wagers depend on the table.
House edge depends on the wager and its denominator
House edge is the long-run expected loss expressed as a share of a defined wager amount. It is a mathematical expectation over many decisions, not a forecast that a particular player will lose that percentage in one session.
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Wizard of Odds lists a Pass Line house edge of 1.41% per bet made and a Don’t Pass edge of 1.36% per bet made under its stated conventional rules. For Pass/Come bets with odds, its examples show the combined edge falling as the odds allowance grows:
| Odds schedule in Wizard of Odds example | Combined Pass/Come house edge |
|---|---|
| 1X odds | 0.848% |
| 3-4-5X odds | 0.374% |
| 10X odds | 0.184% |
These combined percentages are source-specific calculations, not guaranteed casino terms. The cited source presents them for its described rules and schedules; do not treat them as universal table offers. As more odds are allowed, more of the total position is made up of the zero-edge odds wager, which lowers the combined percentage. The line wager’s underlying edge remains.
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Percentages also depend on what counts as the wager. Wizard of Odds lists Place 6/8 at 0.46% house edge per bet made, or 1.52% per resolved bet, and Place 5/9 at 1.11% per bet made. Those figures are not directly interchangeable: “per bet made” and “per resolved bet” use different denominators. The source’s calculations and definitions are at Wizard of Odds’ craps basics.
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Odds limits and casino rules vary
A casino’s maximum odds wager affects how much a player can place on the zero-edge component, and rules differ by venue and jurisdiction. New York’s rule at 9 NYCRR § 4620.3 is one jurisdiction-specific example of odds limits and payout language; it should not be read as a universal table rule. Check the posted table rules for the actual odds multiple, payout terms, and any other restrictions before comparing offers.
A useful comparison identifies the bet’s house-edge denominator, payout odds, whether it resolves on one roll or over a point phase, whether it requires a line wager, the table’s odds cap, and any commission. Without those details, calling one craps bet “best” can be misleading: a lower percentage may be measured against a different amount wagered or depend on a larger permitted odds bet.
Does a streak change the next roll?
No. Assuming fair dice and unchanged game conditions, each roll is independent. MGM Resorts’ guide states, “Each roll is random and independent from any previous roll,” and notes that the next roll’s odds are the same regardless of whether play has been hot or cold. A run without a 7 does not make one due, and a recently rolled total does not become more likely or less likely on the next throw.
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