China’s initial 12-million-metric-ton U.S. soybean commitment was declared complete by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in January 2026, according to the Associated Press. USDA export-sales data available in February showed 10.8 million metric tons purchased or shipped to China, plus 2.19 million sold to “unknown” destinations. USDA said it could not confirm those unknown sales were headed to China, so the figures do not amount to an independently verified final delivery total.
What China pledged—and what “completed” means
The commitment followed the October 30, 2025, U.S.-China trade agreement associated with the Busan meeting. USDA’s Trade Wins summary described resumed Chinese purchases of 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/26 marketing year, followed by 25 MMT annually thereafter.
In January 2026, the Associated Press reported that Bessent said China had completed the initial soybean purchases. That is an attributed statement about the pledge; it is not the same thing as a final, independently audited tally of deliveries. USDA’s export-sales figures are a separate measure, and purchase or shipment records do not necessarily match the volume that has already arrived in China.
What USDA’s sales figures show
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reporting gives a dated snapshot rather than a final reconciliation of the pledge. The figures below use the reporting periods specified by USDA and should not be added together across different marketing years.
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| Measure | Reported amount | What it establishes |
|---|---|---|
| Initial commitment | 12 MMT for marketing year 2025/26 | The soybean volume described in USDA’s summary of the October 30, 2025, agreement. |
| China purchases or shipments | 10.8 MMT as of February 26, 2026 | USDA FAS’s reported China-destination total toward the initial commitment; it is a dated sales snapshot, not a final delivered-volume audit. |
| Sales to “unknown” destinations | 2.19 MMT as of February 26, 2026 | USDA noted that Chinese state-owned enterprises sometimes use this destination category, but did not confirm these sales were China-bound. They should not be counted as confirmed Chinese purchases. |
| Additional commitment | 8 MMT announced in early February 2026 | A separate commitment noted by USDA, not part of the original 12 MMT figure. |
The central distinction is between an announcement that a pledge was completed and the destination-specific sales data USDA could verify at a particular date. The February snapshot falls short of 12 MMT when counting only the 10.8 MMT USDA identified as purchased or shipped to China. The unknown-destination sales cannot close that gap with certainty.
What continued buying looked like in 2026
USDA FAS’s September 4, 2026, China oilseeds update reported continued U.S. soybean buying by Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under the Busan agreement. In export-sales data through August 13, China had purchased 5.7 MMT of U.S. new-crop soybeans for marketing year 2026/27. Another 3.8 MMT was sold to unknown destinations; USDA said such sales could indicate SOE purchases, but the destination was not confirmed.
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That September update is the latest China-specific USDA source available here, and its cited new-crop sales data ends on August 13. It documents ongoing buying but does not establish a final 2026/27 total or settle how much of the unknown-destination volume went to China.
Why Chinese buyers have not all shifted back to U.S. beans
The pledge does not mean every Chinese buyer sources soybeans from the United States. USDA FAS said a 10 percent retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans led commercial buyers to rely on South American origins, while SOEs continued purchasing U.S. beans. USDA’s annual report also cited South American availability and price differences as factors shaping sourcing.
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The distinction matters when interpreting trade data: state-backed purchases can continue under an agreement even while commercial buyers respond to tariffs, relative prices, and available supply. A pledge is therefore not evidence that all Chinese demand—or all soybean imports—will come from the United States.
For context, USDA’s 2026 China oilseeds annual report put U.S. soybean imports at 22.9 MMT in China’s 2024/25 marketing year, down 8 percent year over year. The report attributed the contraction to trade conditions and said U.S. arrivals were zero from September through December 2025. That prior-period import figure measures arrivals, not fulfillment of the later 12 MMT purchase commitment.
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
- Good Eats - Harvest when pods are green and enjoy edamame or allow the pods to dry and shell to eat them boiled or steamed.
- Easy to Grow - Instructions included on each packet. Plus, we are available to answer all your questions. If these seeds don’t germinate, we will happily make it right for you.
- Safe and Sustainable - Our operation is fully solar powered, and Sow Right Seeds has taken the Safe Seed Pledge to sell only fresh Non-GMO heirloom seeds for you and your family.
The later $17 billion farm-goods commitment is separate
In a May 17, 2026, fact sheet, the White House said China would purchase at least $17 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028, in addition to the soybean commitments made in October 2025. This is a dollar-value commitment covering a broader basket of agricultural goods, not a soybean tonnage target and not a replacement for the 12 MMT and 25 MMT soybean terms.
The Associated Press reported that China had purchased $3.9 billion of other U.S. agricultural products during the first seven months of 2026, citing USDA data. AP said that pace left uncertainty about whether China would meet the broader commitment. That figure concerns other agricultural products and should not be treated as the value or volume of soybean purchases.
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How to read the pledge’s status
- For the initial pledge: Bessent said in January 2026 that the 12 MMT commitment had been completed; USDA’s February 26 snapshot separately recorded 10.8 MMT purchased or shipped to China.
- For unknown destinations: USDA said some Chinese SOEs use that category, but did not confirm the specific 2.19 MMT February sales or 3.8 MMT in the later snapshot were bound for China.
- For ongoing commitments: USDA documented 5.7 MMT of China purchases for MY 2026/27 as of August 13, 2026, alongside continued SOE buying, but no final marketing-year total.
- For the broader farm-trade promise: The White House’s annual $17 billion commitment is a separate value-based target for agricultural products, not a soybean-specific quantity.
As of October 8, 2026, the available figures support the conclusion that China’s initial pledge was publicly declared complete and that U.S. soybean purchases continued. They do not provide a final audited tally that resolves the difference between the January announcement and USDA’s separately reported destination-specific sales data.
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