Reuters reported on February 5, 2025, that Celeres had raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop to 174 million metric tons from 170.8 million. The revision reflected positive weather and expected yield gains, but harvesting remained slower than a year earlier—leaving the estimate subject to change and potentially compressing the window for planting second-corn.
What did Celeres forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop?
Celeres forecast 174 million metric tons of soybeans for Brazil’s 2024/25 crop, an increase of 3.2 million metric tons from its previous 170.8-million-ton estimate. Reuters reported that Celeres expected the crop to be a record and 15 million metric tons larger than the 2023/24 crop. These were forecasts reported in February 2025, not final production figures.
Reuters attributed the higher estimate to positive weather and expected yield improvements in Brazil’s Center-West, North, and Northeast. Celeres said delayed harvest data would be incorporated into upcoming estimates, with adjustments possible as the season progressed. Reuters’ report republished by Successful Farming did not provide a final realized total for 2024/25.
Why was Brazil’s soybean harvest delayed?
The report established that harvesting was behind the previous season’s pace, but did not identify one cause for the delay. AgRural estimated that 9% of planted area had been harvested as of the Thursday before the February 3 report, up five percentage points from the previous week. At the comparable point a year earlier, 16% of planted area had been harvested.
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The 9% figure is a progress estimate, not a measure of crop output or yield. Celeres anticipated that harvest data would inform later production estimates, so the February forecast remained provisional.
Could the delay affect second-corn planting?
Yes. Brazilian second-corn is planted after soybeans are harvested, often in the same fields. A late soybean harvest can leave farmers less time to sow second-corn within its preferred planting window. Sowing later may increase the crop’s exposure to adverse climate conditions, according to the concerns described in Reuters’ report.
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Reuters said second-corn represents about 75% of Brazil’s annual corn production. That figure describes the importance of the crop nationally; it does not mean that a delayed soybean harvest would necessarily cause a proportional loss. The report raised a timing and weather risk, not a quantified production impact.
How did StoneX’s estimates differ?
Consultancies did not share one view of the crop. Reuters reported that StoneX cut its 2024/25 soybean estimate by 0.3% to 170.9 million metric tons, citing dry-weather risk in Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, and Mato Grosso do Sul. StoneX also warned that second-corn planting could fall outside its ideal window, while raising its own second-corn estimate by 0.2% to 101.7 million metric tons because of a larger planted area.
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| Organization | Brazil 2024/25 soybean estimate | Change or stated basis |
|---|---|---|
| Celeres, as reported by Reuters in February 2025 | 174 million metric tons | Raised from 170.8 million; positive weather and expected yield gains in the Center-West, North, and Northeast |
| StoneX, as reported by Reuters in February 2025 | 170.9 million metric tons | Cut by 0.3%; cited dry-weather risk in Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, and Mato Grosso do Sul |
The estimates are competing forecasts for the same crop year, not separate measurements of harvested production. Their difference reflects distinct assessments and assumptions at the time; neither figure establishes the eventual crop total.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What does the current crop update say?
Conab’s September 28, 2026 update concerned the start of 2026/27 planting, not a revision to Celeres’s 2024/25 forecast. It described favorable moisture for initial soybean sowing in much of Mato Grosso do Sul and in parts of Paraná where the sanitary fallow period had ended. Planting in Mato Grosso was mainly on irrigated land, while rainfall in Matopiba was insufficient for sowing in most rain-fed areas.
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
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For ongoing crop monitoring, Conab’s crop-progress service provides weekly information on planting and harvesting percentages, crop stages, and observed and forecast conditions for Brazil’s major annual crops. The regional observations in its 2026 update should not be used to infer how the 2024/25 harvest ultimately turned out.
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