The future of banking is unlikely to be one technology replacing banks. More plausibly, digital tools and new providers will change who handles your payments, data, customer service and lending—while banks remain part of the system. For customers, that could mean more convenient services and choices, but also new questions about privacy, reliability, fraud protection and who is responsible when something goes wrong.
What “the future of banking” could mean
Banking is a chain of services, not just a branch or an app. It includes holding deposits, moving money, verifying identity, providing customer support, assessing credit and managing risk. Technology can change which organisation performs each task, how those services connect, and which provider has the direct relationship with a customer.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Future of Banking Study: Future banking scenarios for NZ in 2035, published on 17 September 2026, explores three plausible futures for New Zealand. The study says it does not predict which future will occur or identify a preferred one. Its scenarios are useful ways to think about possible provider structures, not forecasts for other countries.
| Possible structure | What could change | What a customer might notice |
|---|---|---|
| Incumbent banks remain dominant | Established banks continue to provide most core services, while modernising their technology and partnerships. | Banking may look familiar, with improvements delivered through existing banks’ apps, payment services and other channels. |
| Digital challengers gain strength | Newer providers compete more strongly for customers or particular services. | Customers could have more provider choices, but may need to understand which company holds an account, processes a payment or provides support. |
| Provision becomes more diverse and platform-based | Different organisations provide connected parts of the banking value chain, with platforms or other providers linking services. | A customer-facing app or service may not be the same organisation that holds the deposit or makes a lending decision. |
These are broad descriptions of the study’s scenario range, not product predictions. A more modular system does not necessarily mean banks disappear: banks may modernise, partner with other providers or continue to supply core services even if another company owns the customer interface.
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How change could affect your money and services
Payments and the customer relationship
Paying through a digital wallet or another mobile app can make the payment interface different from the bank account behind it. That distinction matters when checking which organisation handles a transaction, what data a service can access and where to seek help. Competition can shift fees and customer relationships among providers without removing banks from payment systems.
In a speech published on 22 September 2026, the European Central Bank reported that wallets and other mobile apps were used for 29% of euro-area consumers’ online payments in 2024. The same speech reported that 68% of euro-area companies said they accepted mobile payments in 2026. These figures describe different groups and reference periods; they are not interchangeable measures of overall adoption or evidence that every country is changing at the same pace.
The speech also reported that payment services represented around 28% of banks’ fee and commission income. It counted 724 payment institutions and 292 electronic money institutions active in the euro area in the first half of 2025. Together, these measures illustrate why banks and other firms may compete or collaborate over payments, while not establishing which providers will win customers in the future.
Data sharing and connected services
Open banking and other forms of data sharing can make it possible for services to work across providers. That may support more integrated or tailored services, but customers should pay attention to what information they are sharing, with whom, for what purpose and how to revoke access. The New Zealand Reserve Bank study identifies open banking and policy reform among forces that could accelerate change; it does not establish that every customer will receive a particular benefit.
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Artificial intelligence may help providers gather information, analyse documents or support internal operations. If a provider uses automated systems in customer-facing decisions, customers may also care about how to ask a question, correct inaccurate information or seek human review. The available evidence points to adoption and experimentation, not a universal shift to machine-made decisions.
Where banks are using AI—and what remains difficult
The Bank of Canada’s Financial System Survey highlights—2026, published on 28 May 2026, found that nearly all surveyed respondents reported using AI, generally to a limited or moderate extent. Common applications included information gathering, analysis, document extraction and internal operations. Respondents generally described AI as helping people complete existing tasks faster, rather than replacing human judgment in critical decisions.
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Among those Bank of Canada survey respondents, 58% cited difficulty integrating AI with existing infrastructure and workflows; 56% cited talent-related constraints; 33% cited data security and privacy concerns; and 31% cited implementation costs. These percentages describe survey responses in Canada in 2026, not all banks or financial firms worldwide. Respondents also pointed to data quality, bias, cybersecurity, model risk, explainability and inadequate backup plans as concerns.
Supervisory priorities reflect the fact that AI’s risks depend on how it is used. The European Central Bank’s 2026–28 supervisory priorities include governance and risk management for AI, with attention to uses such as credit scoring, fraud detection and generative AI. In the United Kingdom, the Financial Conduct Authority’s Mills Review considers possible effects on retail financial services through 2030 and beyond. The FCA says it intends to rely on existing principles-based frameworks rather than introduce additional AI regulation, while identifying risks that include AI-enabled fraud, identity abuse, biased or opaque decisions, reduced consumer agency and provider concentration. These are distinct institutional positions in distinct jurisdictions.
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Could money and settlement move onto new infrastructure?
Tokenisation and distributed ledger technology (DLT) are being explored for financial assets, payments and settlement. In simple terms, tokenisation represents an asset or claim digitally; DLT is one possible way to record and coordinate transactions. These terms describe technological approaches, not a guarantee that a particular digital token is equivalent to a bank deposit or that a new system will become widely used.
The European Central Bank’s September 2026 speech described two Eurosystem initiatives. Pontes allows transactions in tokenised financial assets to settle in central bank money. Appia is a longer-term project intended to develop a blueprint for an integrated European tokenised-finance ecosystem by 2028. The speech also notes unresolved legal and scaling issues, including interoperability and how tokenised deposits are distinguished from e-money tokens. These are project descriptions and intentions, not guaranteed delivery outcomes.
The Bank of England’s DLT Innovation Challenge 2025: Final Report, published on 12 May 2026, describes an exploratory challenge on wholesale payment and settlement. It examines trade-offs involving settlement finality, interoperability, scalability and network controls. The Bank says the challenge is intended to build understanding and should not be read as a policy position or commitment. For consumers, the relevance is indirect: wholesale infrastructure can affect how institutions settle transactions, but experimentation alone does not show that retail banking will soon move onto a particular network.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why resilience and trust matter as much as convenience
More digital services can increase convenience, but they can also make a bank or payment service more dependent on data, cloud computing and other third-party providers. Outages, cyber incidents or a failure at a concentrated provider can affect multiple services at once. The New Zealand Reserve Bank study, European Central Bank supervisory priorities and Bank of Canada survey all point to operational resilience and third-party dependence as material concerns.
Regulation is also jurisdiction-specific. In the European Union, the ECB says oversight of critical third-party providers under the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA) began in January 2026. That oversight complements rather than replaces banks’ own responsibility to manage third-party risk. In the UK, the FCA’s stated approach to AI is to use existing principles-based frameworks. Neither position should be treated as a global rule for every financial provider.
- Reliability: Can you access funds or reach support when an app, payment network or outside provider has a disruption?
- Accountability: Which firm holds your money, processes the service and handles complaints or disputes?
- Privacy and security: What data is collected or shared, and what protections apply?
- Fair decisions: If an automated system affects a financial decision, can the provider explain the result and correct errors?
- Concentration: Does a service depend on a small number of technology providers or networks?
How to prepare without betting on one forecast
Because the direction is uncertain, customers do not need to predict which banking model will dominate. They can instead make choices that remain useful across different models:
- Know who provides each service. For an account, wallet or payment app, identify the organisation that holds the funds, the organisation that processes payments and the party responsible for support.
- Review permissions before sharing data. Check what information an app can access, why it needs it, and how to withdraw access if you stop using the service.
- Keep a recovery route. Know how to contact the provider and regain access if a device is lost, an account is locked or a digital service is unavailable.
- Check the decision process when it matters. If an automated process affects a credit or account decision, ask how to correct inaccurate information or request assistance.
- Compare the service, not just the interface. Convenience is only one part of the choice; consider reliability, privacy, customer support and the provider’s responsibilities as well.
These are practical checks, not a claim that every new service is unsafe or that every established provider is resilient. The potential gains from digitalisation—efficiency, choice, access and productivity—depend on investment, implementation, consumer protection and trust.
What is most likely to remain uncertain
There is no single global forecast in the evidence described here. The most explicit long-range scenarios are specific to New Zealand and run through 2035. The payment figures are specific to the euro area and their stated years; the AI findings are from Canadian survey respondents; and the FCA and ECB positions apply to their respective regulatory settings.
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