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India’s Interim Budget 2024-25 Estimated a 5.1% Fiscal Deficit; July Budget Cut It to 4.9%

The 5.1% fiscal-deficit figure was India’s February 2024 interim-budget estimate. The full Union Budget in July lowered the FY2024-25 estimate to 4.9% of GDP.
From TheFinanceBase Team1 min to read
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India’s Interim Budget, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, 2024, estimated the FY2024-25 fiscal deficit at 5.1% of GDP. That was not the final budget estimate: the full Union Budget on July 23, 2024, lowered it to 4.9% of GDP.

What did the February 2024 budget say?

Presenting the Interim Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that “the fiscal deficit in 2024-25 is estimated to be 5.1 per cent of GDP”. The Ministry of Finance announcement also gave a revised estimate of 5.8% of GDP for the FY2023-24 fiscal deficit. Both were estimates stated in the interim-budget announcement, not final reported outcomes. Read the Press Information Bureau announcement.

What changed in the full Union Budget?

The full Union Budget, presented on July 23, 2024, set a lower FY2024-25 fiscal-deficit estimate: 4.9% of GDP. The shift from 5.1% to 4.9% reflects two different budget documents issued months apart; the February figure should not be described as the estimate that remained in the full budget. Read the July 2024 budget speech or the government’s budget summary.

Why did the estimate fall?

PRS Legislative Research’s 2024 analysis says the full-budget target was lower in part because receipts were projected to grow faster than spending. PRS reported expected receipts growth of 15%, compared with expenditure growth of 8.5%. This is useful context for the revised budget arithmetic, not evidence that one factor alone explains the change. PRS also noted a revenue-deficit target of 1.8% of GDP. Read PRS’s Union Budget 2024-25 analysis.

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Key figures in the July 2024 budget

Measure FY2024-25 figure Source and status
Fiscal deficit 4.9% of GDP Government of India full-budget estimate, July 2024
Revenue deficit 1.8% of GDP PRS Legislative Research summary of the full-budget target, 2024
Non-borrowing receipts ₹32.07 lakh crore Government of India full-budget estimate, July 2024
Total expenditure ₹48.21 lakh crore Government of India full-budget estimate, July 2024
Net tax receipts ₹25.83 lakh crore Government of India full-budget estimate, July 2024

The Ministry of Finance’s 2024-25 budget portal hosts official budget documents and deficit statistics. The figures above are estimates for FY2024-25, not an account of the realized deficit.

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