Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean crop is projected at 181.64 million tonnes, according to the National Supply Company (Conab). Separately, Brazil shipped 82.9 million tonnes of soybeans from January through July 2026, up 7.8% from the same period a year earlier. The crop figure is a forward-looking estimate; the export total records shipments already made.
How much soy will Brazil produce in 2026/27?
Conab’s September 2026 outlook projects soybean production at 181.64 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season. The agency describes this as moderate growth, with a larger planted area expected to offset slightly lower average productivity. This is a prospective crop estimate, not a report of harvested output. Conab’s 14th edition of Perspectivas para a Agropecuária, produced with Banco do Brasil, includes the outlook and companion grain data tables.
What changed in the 2025/26 estimate?
In a separate release, Conab’s 12th survey put 2025/26 soybean production at 180.4 million tonnes, 0.3% above its August estimate. That is an upward revision to the prior season’s survey estimate; it is not evidence that Conab raised its 2026/27 projection from an earlier forecast. Conab’s survey release also gave a 2026 soybean export estimate of 116.3 million tonnes, which is a forecast and should not be confused with shipments recorded through July.
Brazil’s soybean exports increased through July
Conab’s logistics bulletin records 82.9 million tonnes of soybean exports during January–July 2026, 7.8% more than in January–July 2025. This is a year-to-date shipment total, not a full-year result or a 2026/27 export forecast. Conab’s logistics bulletin reports the export comparison.
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What supports the next-season crop outlook?
More planted area
Conab expects 49.3 million hectares of soybeans to be planted in 2026/27, 1.4% more than in the previous season. That expansion is the main positive area signal in the outlook.
Productivity and climate risk
Average productivity is expected to be slightly lower. Conab points to a high comparison base and climate-related risk, so the projected total depends on conditions during the growing season as well as the expected area. The 181.64-million-tonne figure remains an estimate, not a guaranteed harvest.
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How to read the figures together
| Figure | What it measures | Period and status |
|---|---|---|
| 181.64 million tonnes | Soybean production | 2026/27 season projection in Conab’s September 2026 outlook |
| 180.4 million tonnes | Soybean production | 2025/26 season estimate in Conab’s 12th survey; 0.3% above the August estimate |
| 82.9 million tonnes; +7.8% year over year | Soybean exports shipped | January–July 2026 total compared with January–July 2025 |
| 116.3 million tonnes | Soybean exports | Conab’s 2026 estimate, distinct from the January–July observed shipment total |
The production estimates cover different crop seasons, while the export total is a measured result for seven calendar months. They describe related parts of Brazil’s soybean supply and trade, but they are not directly interchangeable.
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
- Good Eats - Harvest when pods are green and enjoy edamame or allow the pods to dry and shell to eat them boiled or steamed.
- Easy to Grow - Instructions included on each packet. Plus, we are available to answer all your questions. If these seeds don’t germinate, we will happily make it right for you.
- Safe and Sustainable - Our operation is fully solar powered, and Sow Right Seeds has taken the Safe Seed Pledge to sell only fresh Non-GMO heirloom seeds for you and your family.
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