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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsBrazil is forecast to export 105 million metric tons of soybeans in calendar 2026, down 3% from 2025, according to Safras & Mercado estimates reported by Reuters on January 19, 2026. That is a forecast, not a final shipment total. Safras lowered its projection from 109 million tonnes in November 2025.
What Safras forecasts for Brazil’s 2026 soybean balance
Reuters reported Safras & Mercado’s calendar-year estimates on January 19, 2026. The figures below are projections, not observed results.
| Measure | Safras estimate for 2026 | Comparison reported |
|---|---|---|
| Soybean exports | 105 million metric tons | Down 3% from 2025 |
| Soybean crushing | 60 million tonnes | 58.5 million tonnes in 2025 |
| Total supply | 183.79 million tonnes | Up 5% year over year |
| Total demand | 168.42 million tonnes | Down 1% year over year |
| Soybean imports | None expected | 969,000 tonnes in 2025 |
| Ending stocks | 15.37 million tonnes | 4.51 million tonnes in 2025; up 241% |
| Soybean meal output | 47.4 million tonnes | Up 2% |
| Soybean meal exports | 24.7 million tonnes | Up 6% |
| Soybean oil output | 11.7 million tonnes | Up 3% |
| Soybean oil exports | 1.1 million tonnes | Down 19% |
| Domestic soybean oil consumption | Not stated in tonnes | Up 3%; Safras cited higher biodiesel use as a factor |
All figures in the table are Safras estimates reported by Reuters. “None expected” refers to Safras’s 2026 import projection; it does not mean Brazil had no soybean imports in 2025.
Why exports can fall despite an expected record crop
Safras connected its outlook to expectations for another record crop and increased soybean processing in Brazil. Its 2025/26 crop estimate was 179.28 million tonnes, revised up from its previous estimate of 178.76 million tonnes, Reuters reported. At the same time, Safras projected crushing of 60 million tonnes in calendar 2026, compared with 58.5 million in 2025.
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The figures point to a larger domestic use of beans through processing alongside abundant expected supply. More crushing can leave fewer whole soybeans available for export, even when production is high. This is an explanation of how the projected balance fits together, not a claim that the final export outcome is settled.
In a Portuguese-language republication of the Reuters report, Safras analyst Rafael Silveira attributed the outlook mainly to the size of expected Brazilian supply, another record crop, and greater expected processing. The English rendering here is a translation of his statement, not original English wording. Notícias Agrícolas carries the Portuguese-language report.
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How this forecast differs from other export figures
Brazilian soybean export numbers can cover different time windows. Safras’s 105-million-tonne figure is a calendar-2026 forecast; USDA’s figure below is for marketing year 2025/26, while Anec’s is for a single month. They are not like-for-like totals.
| Publisher and period | Figure | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Safras & Mercado, calendar 2026 | 105 million metric tons | Forecast exports, down 3% from 2025, as reported by Reuters |
| USDA Economic Research Service, marketing year 2025/26; April 13, 2026 outlook | 115.0 million metric tons | Brazil export forecast; USDA also forecast production at 180.0 million tonnes |
| Anec, October 2026 | 6.18 million tonnes | Monthly export estimate, compared with 6.40 million tonnes in October 2025; Reuters reported the estimate |
The USDA outlook also said Brazil shipped 37.8 million tonnes from October through March, 6.3 million tonnes more than in the same period a year earlier, mainly on higher shipments to China, the European Union and Pakistan. That shipment figure describes a completed period, unlike the full marketing-year forecast. See the USDA Economic Research Service Oil Crops Outlook.
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The Anec October estimate is a separate monthly measure reported in a Reuters search-result excerpt; the Reuters article page was not accessible. It should therefore be treated as an attributed monthly estimate, not as a substitute for a full-year projection. The 105-million-tonne Safras number and 115.0-million-tonne USDA number do not by themselves indicate a contradiction because their publishers and reporting periods differ.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Where to check Brazil’s official crop updates
Conab’s crop survey reports cover planted area, productivity, production, agricultural monitoring, climate outlooks, supply and demand, and market analysis. The agency describes its grain and fiber reporting as monthly. Its grain harvest reports page lists the 12th 2025/26 grain harvest report as dated September 15, 2026. For updated official crop estimates, consult the relevant bulletin directly; Safras’s export forecast and Conab’s crop reporting serve different purposes.
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