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Brazil Soy Farmers Reap a Record Crop, Conab Estimates

Conab’s September 15 estimate puts Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest at a record 180.4 million tonnes, with a higher forecast for the next crop.
From TheFinanceBase Team1 min to read
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Brazil is estimated to have produced 180.4 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2025/26 crop year, the largest volume in Conab’s historical series. That figure comes from the agency’s 12th grain bulletin, released September 15, 2026; it is an estimate, not a final tally. Conab’s bulletin summary attributes the record to expanded planted area and improved average yield.

How much soy will Brazil produce this year?

For the 2025/26 crop, Conab’s September 15, 2026 bulletin estimates production at 180.4 million tonnes. The agency calls this the highest soybean volume in its historical series. The estimate applies to that crop season; it should not be confused with the following season’s forecast.

Why the estimate changed

Conab’s prior bulletin, released August 13, estimated the same 2025/26 harvest at 180.5 million tonnes. The September estimate is therefore 0.1 million tonnes lower. The revision shows that crop estimates can shift between releases; neither number should be treated as a final harvest count. Conab’s August 13 bulletin summary gives the earlier estimate.

Conab attributes the record 2025/26 volume to both an increase in planted area and an improvement in average national soybean yield. The bulletin summary does not quantify how much each factor contributed.

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What Conab expects for the next crop

In a separate outlook released September 18, 2026, Conab projected 181.64 million tonnes of soybeans for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop, with 49.3 million hectares planted. This is a forecast for the next season, not a result from a completed harvest. Conab described the projected area increase as 1.4%, the smallest percentage increase in 20 years. The agency’s 2026/27 outlook summary provides those projections.

Soybeans and Brazil’s broader grain outlook

The same 2026/27 outlook projects 366.6 million tonnes of total grain production nationwide. That figure covers grains overall, not soybeans alone, and is conditional on confirmation. Conab expects greater planted area to offset a slight decrease in average yield across the broader grain crop.

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