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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Safras & Mercado estimates Brazil will produce 145.565 million tonnes of corn in the 2026/27 crop year, up from its October report’s 139.315 million-tonne estimate for 2025/26. That is a comparison between crop years—not evidence that Safras raised its earlier forecast for 2026/27. The October 5, 2026 report does not give a prior 2026/27 estimate for comparison.
Brazil corn production forecast for 2026/27
Safras & Mercado’s October 5, 2026 consultancy estimate puts Brazil’s total corn production at 145.565 million tonnes for 2026/27, compared with 139.315 million tonnes for 2025/26. The estimate covers the crop year; it is not an official government result. Safras & Mercado
The wording “bumped up” can be misleading here. The report shows a larger forecast for the next crop year than the prior one, but does not state that Safras revised its 2026/27 estimate upward from an earlier forecast. Those are different claims.
Safras’s 2026/27 supply and use estimates
Safras also estimates domestic availability, trade, consumption and ending stocks. Availability is not the same measure as production: it includes supply beyond the crop itself. The October report gives these figures:
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| Measure | 2026/27 estimate | 2025/26 comparison in the October report |
|---|---|---|
| Production | 145.565 million tonnes | 139.315 million tonnes |
| Domestic availability | 159.115 million tonnes | 153.075 million tonnes |
| Exports | 37.7 million tonnes | Similar volume projected |
| Imports | 2 million tonnes | 1.766 million tonnes |
| Total consumption | 147.738 million tonnes | 141.525 million tonnes |
| Ending stocks | 11.377 million tonnes | 11.550 million tonnes |
All figures are Safras & Mercado consultancy estimates for the crop years shown, not finalized harvest results. The report describes exports as similar to the prior-year projection rather than giving a precise 2025/26 export figure. Safras & Mercado
Why Safras lowered its 2025/26 corn estimate in May
A separate Safras report, published May 8, 2026, cut its 2025/26 estimate to 140.114 million tonnes from 141.706 million tonnes in February. It cited weather difficulties in some states growing the second, or safrinha, crop, particularly a lack of rain in Goiás. The May estimate should not be substituted for the October report’s 139.315 million-tonne comparison: they are different report vintages, and the cited reports do not explain the difference.
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Safras said its May 2025/26 estimate covered 21.893 million hectares of planted area, with an average yield of 6,400 kilograms per hectare. Analyst and consultant Paulo Molinari said in Portuguese that Goiás production was expected to fall to 12.592 million tonnes from 15.619 million tonnes forecast in February because of a lack of precipitation, reducing second-crop productivity. Safras & Mercado, May 8, 2026
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to compare this forecast with CONAB’s estimate
Brazil’s National Supply Company, CONAB, maintains a separate government grain-survey series and publishes monthly harvest bulletins. Its official index lists the 12th 2025/26 survey on September 15, 2026. The available index information does not establish a comparable corn figure from that survey, so it does not show whether CONAB confirms or differs from Safras. CONAB’s grain harvest index
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CONAB’s 10th 2025/26 survey was published July 14, 2026, before the 12th survey, and should not be described as the latest government estimate. CONAB’s 10th 2025/26 survey
For a meaningful comparison between providers, match the crop year, report date, geographic scope and measure—production, availability or total supply. Also check whether the forecast combines first-, second- (safrinha) and any third-crop corn. A difference between estimates is not necessarily a contradiction if their dates, definitions or coverage differ.
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