Brazil has already overtaken the United States in one historical comparison, and USDA projects another crossover in the 2032/33 marketing year. Those are separate findings: the first describes 2023, while the second is a long-term projection. The Agroconsult forecast named in the headline cannot be pinned to a year or export volume from the available information because its original report was not located.
What does the Agroconsult forecast establish?
The headline attributes a forecast to Brazilian agricultural consultancy Agroconsult, but the original publication was not located. Its release date, forecast year, export estimate and underlying assumptions therefore cannot be confirmed. The headline alone does not say when Brazil is expected to pass the United States.
USDA figures provide separate context, not a substitute for Agroconsult’s estimate. USDA says Brazil displaced the United States as the world’s largest corn exporter in 2023. In a distinct long-term outlook, USDA projects Brazil surpassing U.S. exports in the 2032/33 marketing year. The historical statement and the projected crossover refer to different periods and should not be conflated.
What does USDA project for Brazil and the United States?
USDA’s 2025 long-term projection, based on the October 2024 interagency baseline, puts Brazil ahead of the United States beginning in the 2032/33 marketing year. By 2034/35, it projects Brazilian exports of 72.6 million metric tons and U.S. exports of 69.2 million metric tons. These are projected volumes, not observed trade totals, and the baseline is conditional rather than a guarantee. USDA Economic Research Service long-term projections.
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Why can Brazil compete for the top spot?
The safrinha crop adds exportable supply
Brazil’s second corn crop, commonly called safrinha, is planted after soybean harvest and is central to the country’s corn supply. Because its crop calendar differs from that of Northern Hemisphere producers, the timing of harvest can support Brazilian exports at points in the year when competitors’ supply flows differ. Production and harvest timing still matter: a second crop does not ensure a particular export volume.
Export volumes depend on more than production
Corn available to export is affected by domestic use as well as harvest size. In a 2024 Brazil attaché report, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast exports of 45 million metric tons for MY 2023/24 and 51 million metric tons for MY 2024/25. These were forecasts made in that report, not current forecasts or verified final results. The report cited lower expected supply and higher internal use when reducing its MY 2023/24 estimate, and said higher prices weakened Brazilian competitiveness in that outlook. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Brazil attaché report (2024).
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Destination-market competition is not the same as global rank
USDA’s historical trade analysis describes Brazil’s stronger position in China and the role of Brazilian supplies in competing with U.S. corn. A lead in one destination does not by itself establish which country exported more corn worldwide; global rank requires comparable totals across all destinations and the same period. USDA Economic Research Service analysis of Brazil’s role in global corn trade.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to compare export rankings accurately
“Top corn exporter” can refer to different periods and data measures. A calendar-year trade total is not automatically comparable to a marketing-year figure, and an estimate or projection is not a final result. For a fair Brazil–U.S. comparison, check that both countries’ figures cover the same period, use the same export-volume measure and are identified as either realized data or forecasts.
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The USDA’s statement that Brazil displaced the United States in 2023 is a historical comparison; its 2032/33 crossover is a projection. The latest completed marketing-year ranking is not established here, so these findings do not determine which country leads in the latest completed marketing year or in 2026. USDA’s long-term baseline projections and its historical trade analysis address different kinds of evidence and should be read accordingly.
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