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Adobe’s $11.7 billion figure was a forecast for U.S. online Black Friday spending in 2025, not the final total. After the holiday season, Adobe reported that online spending reached $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from 2024. Adobe’s latest forecast puts Black Friday 2026 online spending at $12.9 billion, but that is still a projection—not a result.
How much did Americans spend online on Black Friday?
Adobe reported $11.8 billion in U.S. online retail spending on Black Friday 2025, up 9.1% year over year. The total was published in Adobe’s January 7, 2026, holiday-season recap. Adobe had previously reported $10.8 billion for Black Friday 2024, an increase of 10.2% over 2023.
These figures cover online transactions at U.S. retail sites. They are not a count of all Black Friday sales, because they exclude purchases made in physical stores.
Was Adobe’s $11.7 billion number a forecast or the final total?
It was a forecast. On October 6, 2025, Adobe projected $11.7 billion in U.S. online Black Friday spending, up 8.3% from the prior year. The later $11.8 billion figure is Adobe’s reported 2025 result; the small difference reflects the gap between an estimate made before the season and the total reported afterward.
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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Adobe says its holiday analysis draws on direct online transactions at U.S. retail sites. Its 2025 forecast and recap describe a data set spanning more than 1 trillion visits, 100 million product SKUs and 18 product categories. Those figures describe the scope of Adobe’s analysis, not a census of every retailer or every sale.
How much is Adobe forecasting for Black Friday 2026?
Adobe forecasts $12.9 billion in U.S. online spending for Black Friday 2026, up 9.2% year over year. Adobe published the forecast on September 28, 2026; as of October 8, 2026, Black Friday had not yet taken place, so the figure is not observed spending.
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For context, Adobe also projects $275.1 billion in U.S. online holiday-season sales from November 1 through December 31, 2026, including $47.5 billion during Cyber Week. These are forecasts for different time periods: Black Friday is one shopping day, while Cyber Week and the holiday-season total cover broader windows.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What do Adobe’s 2026 deal forecasts mean for shoppers?
Adobe’s category-level projections suggest that the best time to look may vary by what you plan to buy:
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Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →| Shopping day | Categories Adobe expects to have the best deals |
|---|---|
| Thanksgiving | Sporting goods |
| Black Friday | TVs, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture |
| Cyber Monday | Electronics and computers |
Adobe forecasts that TV discounts could peak at 23% off listed price during the 2026 holiday season. This is a category-level projection, not a promise about a particular television or its price. Compare the exact model, listing price and purchase terms before deciding that a deal is worthwhile; an aggregate discount forecast cannot establish whether a specific offer is good value.
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