On November 27, 2025, Itaú BBA analyst Francisco Queiroz forecast a record 178 million metric tons of soybeans for Brazil’s 2025/26 crop, Reuters reported. That was an estimate, not a final production figure. Later projections and a late-season estimate put the crop at different levels, including CONAB’s September 2026 estimate of 180.4 million metric tons.
What Itaú BBA forecast in November 2025
Reuters reported that Queiroz gave the 178-million-metric-ton forecast during an online event on November 27, 2025. At the time, Reuters said the estimate was 3 million metric tons above the USDA’s then-current 175-million-ton forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 crop. That USDA figure is a dated comparison, not its current estimate.
The forecast paired expected area growth with uncertainty about weather and margins. Queiroz expected planted area to increase by about one million hectares from the prior cycle despite tighter producer margins. Reuters also reported that irregular weather had delayed planting. Queiroz said, “But we have positive weather maps for the coming weeks in Brazil’s central region,” as quoted in Reuters coverage republished by Agriculture.com.
How later estimates compared
Crop estimates changed as the season progressed. The figures below were issued at different dates and do not necessarily use identical methods or vintages, so they should be read as a timeline rather than a direct, like-for-like ranking.
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| Publisher and date | Estimate | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| CONAB, September 2025 | 177.7 million metric tons | Pre-season outlook; CONAB projected a 3.6% increase. |
| Itaú BBA, reported by Reuters on November 27, 2025 | 178 million metric tons | Forecast by analyst Francisco Queiroz for the 2025/26 crop. |
| USDA, January 2026 | 178.0 million metric tons | USDA raised its Brazil production forecast by 3 million metric tons, citing higher harvested acreage and yield; it forecast 49.1 million hectares harvested and a yield of 3.63 metric tons per hectare. |
| Itaú BBA, reported by Exame on July 2, 2026 | 182.4 million metric tons | Estimate attributed to the bank by secondary reporting; a primary Itaú BBA release confirming the figure was not identified. |
| CONAB, September 15, 2026 | 180.4 million metric tons | Late-season estimate issued when harvest was described as practically complete; CONAB called it the largest crop in its historical series. |
Why the estimates moved
The November 2025 forecast depended in part on expected expansion in planted area while planting was delayed by irregular weather. In January 2026, the USDA raised its forecast based on higher harvested acreage and yield. By September, CONAB attributed its 180.4-million-ton estimate to greater planted area and higher average productivity, with harvest practically complete.
The July 2026 figure of 182.4 million metric tons is presented differently: it is a number Exame attributed to Itaú BBA, rather than a verified primary bank publication. It should not be treated as equivalent in status to CONAB’s official late-season estimate.
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What the numbers do—and do not—establish
The 178-million-ton figure answers what Itaú BBA forecast in November 2025. It does not, by itself, establish the final size of Brazil’s crop. The strongest late-season national estimate in the cited figures is CONAB’s 180.4 million metric tons from September 15, 2026, when harvest was practically complete. The available figures do not provide a single final audited result or a reconciliation showing that each publisher used the same methodology.
For readers following agricultural markets, keep each estimate attached to its publisher and release date. In particular, do not confuse the USDA’s November 2025 comparison of 175 million metric tons with its January 2026 forecast of 178.0 million metric tons.
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