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Argentina’s 2026/27 corn crop is not yet on track for a record: current estimates range from 56.5 million to about 66 million tonnes, all below the 70.5 million tonnes reported for 2025/26 by the Rosario Grain Exchange. Forecasts differ by publisher and update date, and the season is still weather-dependent. Farmers’ planting plans have also shifted back toward soybeans in Rosario’s latest estimate—not uniformly across the country, but in response to pest risk, costs and field conditions.
What the latest forecasts say about Argentina’s corn crop
The Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario (Rosario Grain Exchange) estimates that Argentina produced 70.5 million tonnes of corn on 11 million hectares in 2025/26. Its latest initial outlook, published October 7, 2026, puts 2026/27 production at about 66 million tonnes, based on 10.4 million hectares planted, of which 8.7 million are expected to be harvested for grain. The 66-million-tonne projection assumes normal weather. Rosario’s October estimate is an early forecast, not a final harvest result.
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts are lower, though its estimate rose between reports. Its April 20 annual report forecast 56.5 million tonnes for MY 2026/27, 7% below its estimate for MY 2025/26. A July 23 update raised its 2026/27 forecast to 60.5 million tonnes, citing marginally higher area and expected yields. These are USDA FAS projections, not measured production: see the April annual report and July update.
| Publisher and report date | Crop-year label | Corn outlook | Area and context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosario, October 7, 2026 | 2026/27 | About 66 million tonnes | 10.4 million hectares planted; 8.7 million expected for grain; normal-weather scenario. |
| Rosario, September 9, 2026 | 2026/27 | 67.5 million tonnes | 10.6 million hectares of corn; estimate reflected reduced observed leafhopper presence and input offers. |
| USDA FAS, July 23, 2026 | MY 2026/27 | 60.5 million tonnes | Update cited marginally higher area and expected yields. |
| USDA FAS, April 20, 2026 | MY 2026/27 | 56.5 million tonnes | Annual report forecast 7% below its MY 2025/26 estimate. |
The estimates use different publishers’ assumptions, methods, update schedules and potentially different calendar or marketing-year definitions. The available reports do not reconcile those differences, so their figures should be attributed rather than treated as a single agreed forecast. Even Rosario’s latest projection is 4.5 million tonnes below its reported 2025/26 crop; the USDA FAS projections are further below.
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Why the “shift from soy” picture changed
Rosario’s September 9 outlook had pointed toward more corn: it projected 10.6 million hectares planted and 67.5 million tonnes produced in 2026/27, while soybean planting intentions stood at 16.7 million hectares. The report said that low observed leafhopper presence and offers or discounts on seed and crop inputs helped support corn acreage. Rosario’s September outlook was itself a forecast, not a completed planting survey.
By October 7, Rosario’s estimate had lowered intended corn area by 600,000 hectares, to 10.4 million, and raised soybean planting intentions by the same amount, to 16.7 million hectares. It attributed the change to concerns about corn stunt and its leafhopper vector, the cost of control, rising fuel and freight costs, and wet fields that can complicate planting. The shift is a change in reported intentions and relative economics, not evidence that every Argentine growing region is moving from corn to soybeans.
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The September 18 preliminary outlook described expectations for coarse crops as tentative and weather-dependent. Its explanation of the earlier corn-area optimism included local observations and favorable input offers; it should be read alongside, not as a replacement for, the later October estimate. Rosario’s preliminary outlook underscores how early the acreage and production picture remains.
What is weighing on corn planting decisions
- Corn-stunt risk: Pest and disease concerns can make expected control costs and potential crop losses part of the planting decision. Rosario’s latest report identifies corn-stunt pressure and the cost of managing it as factors in the revised outlook.
- Input costs and incentives: Seed promotions, bonuses, crop chemicals and discounts supported corn intentions in September. Rosario’s later estimate indicates that those incentives did not prevent the overall revision when other costs and risks changed.
- Freight and fuel: Rosario says freight is especially consequential in areas more than 400 km from ports without nearby local consumption. It also identifies rising fuel costs as a pressure on corn economics.
- Wet fields: Excess moisture can make field access and planting timing more difficult, adding another uncertainty to acreage plans.
Rosario reports that five corn-stunt control applications in Chaco could cost about US$55 per hectare. That is a local reported estimate from the exchange, not a national average or a cost estimate for every farm.
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What to watch before calling it a record season
A record claim would require production to exceed the reported 70.5-million-tonne 2025/26 crop. None of the cited 2026/27 projections reaches that level. The estimates can still change as planting progresses and weather, pest pressure, yields and the area ultimately harvested become clearer. Rosario’s 66-million-tonne scenario explicitly assumes normal weather, while its September preliminary outlook cautioned that coarse-crop estimates were tentative.
For readers tracking the outlook, the most useful distinction is between a production forecast and a final crop total. Rosario’s October figure and USDA FAS’s April and July figures are different forecasts for 2026/27; they do not establish the eventual harvest. The associated acreage numbers are also intentions or estimates, not proof of final planted area.
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