Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its estimate for the 2025/26 soybean harvest to 50.1 million tonnes from 48.6 million tonnes, citing higher-than-expected yields as harvesting progressed. The revised figure is a forecast, not a final harvest result.
Why did the Exchange raise its soybean estimate?
In a report published May 24, 2026, Reuters said the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lifted its projected 2025/26 soybean output by 1.5 million tonnes. The Exchange’s stated reason was that yields were coming in above expectations as the harvest advanced. Reuters report syndicated by Business Recorder
Favorable rainfall during much of the growing season was also part of the crop conditions described in the report. It should not be read as the sole explanation for the revision: the reported driver was better-than-expected yield performance.
What did the yield and harvest-progress figures show?
At the time of the Reuters report, the Exchange’s reported average yield was 32.8 quintals per hectare, which Reuters described as the highest average in six growing seasons. One quintal is 100 kilograms, so that figure is equivalent to 3.28 tonnes per hectare. It is a yield snapshot during harvest, not necessarily the final season-wide average.
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The harvest had reached 74.7% of the nationally suitable area in that same progress snapshot. That means the estimate was being updated while harvesting was still incomplete; neither the yield figure nor the projected production should be treated as a final tally.
Why are two Exchange yield figures reported?
The Exchange’s indexed 2025/26 crop dashboard lists production at 50.1 million tonnes and yield at 31.3 quintals per hectare, while the Reuters story reports a 32.8-quintal yield snapshot. The available sources do not explain the difference. These figures may reflect different reporting snapshots or methods, so they should be attributed to their respective sources rather than combined or presented as interchangeable final values. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange crop dashboard
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What the revision does—and does not—tell readers
The update indicates that the Exchange’s production outlook improved as harvest data came in stronger than anticipated. It does not establish the final 2025/26 soybean crop, and it is specific to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s estimate. It should not be confused with other institutions’ forecasts or with outlooks for a different campaign.
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