“Ag Traders, Manufacturers Report Tough Profit Outlooks” describes a February 5, 2025 roundup of company results and forecasts—not a current sector-wide prediction. Since then, ADM and Bunge have raised their 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share outlooks, while Deere’s outlook still calls for weaker demand for large agricultural equipment in the United States and Canada. The companies’ results differ by business segment, reporting period and measure, so the headline should not be read as applying equally to every agricultural business.
What the February 2025 headline reported
The Successful Farming page published February 5, 2025, republished Farmdoc material by Ryan Hanrahan and brought together reporting from Reuters, Bloomberg and Food Dive. Its figures and forecasts refer to particular companies and periods; they are not a single analyst forecast for the agricultural sector. Successful Farming’s roundup relayed the following results and expectations:
- ADM: Reuters reported that fourth-quarter adjusted profit was the company’s lowest in six years. Agricultural services and oilseeds fourth-quarter operating profit fell 32%, with weak oilseed-crush margins, slow demand and abundant corn and soybean supplies among the pressures cited. ADM planned $500 million to $750 million in cost cuts over three to five years and expected 2025 operating profit in agricultural services and oilseeds to be flat to lower. Uncertainty about U.S. biofuel policy was another concern.
- Bunge: Reuters reported fourth-quarter adjusted core earnings of $364 million in agribusiness, down from $639 million a year earlier. Refined and specialty oils gross profit fell 19.5% year over year to $275 million. These are historical quarterly comparisons reported in the roundup, not current guidance.
- CNH Industrial: The roundup said CNH expected lower 2025 sales in agriculture and construction amid subdued farm-equipment demand, lower farm incomes and high dealer inventories. Management expected North American retail demand to increase gradually in 2026.
- Deere: The roundup recounted Bloomberg’s November 2024 report that Deere forecast fiscal-2025 net income of $5 billion to $5.5 billion. That was a forecast for the company’s fiscal 2025, not its reported result or current guidance.
- Tyson Foods: Chicken was a counterexample to the difficult-outlook framing: the roundup said chicken profits doubled year over year and Tyson expected $1 billion to $1.3 billion in adjusted operating income from chicken in fiscal 2025. Tight cattle supplies and lower pork prices pressured the beef and pork businesses.
What ADM and Bunge now expect for 2026
Later company releases changed the outlook for two of the traders in the roundup. These are management forecasts, not independent estimates, and the adjusted EPS figures should not be confused with GAAP earnings or with segment profit.
| Company and date | 2026 adjusted EPS outlook | What the company said |
|---|---|---|
| ADM, August 4, 2026 | Approximately $5.15–$5.60, raised from $4.15–$4.70 | ADM reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.84. It attributed the revised outlook to expected improvement in crushing and ethanol, a constructive biofuels environment and momentum in Nutrition. ADM’s August 4 release |
| Bunge, July 29, 2026 | $9.25–$9.75, raised from $9.00–$9.50 | Bunge reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.00, compared with $1.31 a year earlier. Its outlook was mixed by segment: soybean processing and refining higher, softseed processing and refining slightly higher, and grain merchandising and milling lower than its previous outlook. Bunge’s July 29 release |
Bunge CEO Greg Heckman called the quarter “strong” and described the company as navigating a complex global environment; that is management’s characterization in the July 29 company release, not an independent assessment.
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Why Deere’s equipment outlook remains a separate story
Deere’s 2026 outlook, in an SEC filing, expected demand for large agricultural equipment in the United States and Canada to decrease compared with 2025, citing challenging row-crop farm fundamentals. The forecast is limited to that equipment category and geography; it does not establish a decline across every machine type or market. Deere’s SEC-filed outlook also identified factors that could provide support: crop production and commodity demand, normalizing global crop-trade flows, government programs supporting farmers’ short-term liquidity, and a better used-equipment market.
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How to interpret the outlooks without conflating them
- Separate results from forecasts. Bunge’s $364 million agribusiness figure and ADM’s reported fourth-quarter profit decline describe past performance. The 2026 EPS ranges are forward-looking company guidance.
- Check the measure. Adjusted EPS, adjusted operating income, adjusted core earnings, gross profit and operating profit are different measures. They are not interchangeable, and adjusted figures are not the same as GAAP net income.
- Follow the segment. Weak oilseed-crush margins, stronger chicken profits and a lower grain-merchandising outlook can coexist within the same broad agricultural economy. A company’s total outlook may conceal that variation.
- Keep the geography and period attached. Deere’s demand forecast concerns large equipment in the United States and Canada versus 2025. CNH’s gradual-recovery comment was a North American expectation reported in the 2025 roundup, not a current global forecast.
- Do not generalize from a partial company set. The 2026 updates here cover ADM, Bunge and Deere; they do not establish current guidance for CNH or Tyson, or a complete outlook for traders, manufacturers and food processors.
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