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The 2025 machinery outlook was subdued overall but uneven by country and subsector. VDMA forecast 1% real growth in global machinery turnover for 2025, while its October bulletin showed stronger forecasts for India and China and declines for Germany and France. Machine tools and semiconductor equipment had their own, more positive forecasts—but those figures measure different markets and should not be treated as a single industry growth rate.
What the broad machinery forecast said
VDMA expected global machinery turnover to rise 1% in real terms in 2025 compared with 2024. The estimate was unchanged in the association’s October 2025 bulletin. VDMA characterized the regional picture as significantly different across markets and uncertainty as high amid trade conflicts. This is a forecast, not a final report of 2025 results. VDMA’s global-markets outlook and its October 2025 bulletin provide the broader context.
Regional forecasts varied sharply
VDMA’s October 2025 bulletin forecast growth in India and China, alongside contractions in Germany and France. The figures are not perfectly like-for-like: the bulletin identifies Germany’s figure as production, while country estimates may refer to production or turnover.
| Market | 2025 forecast | Measure and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| India | +6% | VDMA October 2025 country forecast; the bulletin’s country figures may measure production or turnover. |
| China | +4.5% | VDMA October 2025 country forecast; the bulletin’s country figures may measure production or turnover. |
| Germany | -5% | VDMA October 2025 production forecast. |
| France | -4% | VDMA October 2025 country forecast; the bulletin’s country figures may measure production or turnover. |
For global machinery turnover, VDMA’s October 2025 forecast was 2% real growth in 2026. That later-year estimate does not remove the uncertainty the association had flagged around trade conflict and regional divergence. VDMA’s October 2025 bulletin is the source for both the country figures and the 2026 global forecast.
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Machine tools had a separate outlook
MTA’s 2025 global machine-tool forecast seminar reported a baseline of 5.0% growth in global machine-tool demand in 2025, followed by 2.1% in 2026. Machine-tool demand is narrower than broad machinery turnover, so the stronger 2025 figure does not contradict VDMA’s 1% estimate.
| MTA machine-tool scenario | 2025 demand forecast | 2026 demand forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline | +5.0% | +2.1% |
| Worst-case trade-war scenario | +4.8% | -2.4% |
| Reduced-policy-uncertainty scenario | +5.1% | +4.7% |
These are scenarios reported by MTA, not observed results. They show how the 2026 path could shift with trade-war conditions and policy uncertainty; the seminar summary does not turn any one path into a certainty. MTA’s Forecast Seminar 2025 summary reports the baseline and scenarios.
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Semiconductor equipment stood out as a growth pocket
In its July 22, 2025 mid-year forecast, SEMI projected global semiconductor manufacturing equipment OEM sales of $125.5 billion in 2025, up 7.4% year over year, and $138.1 billion in 2026. These are nominal dollar sales forecasts for semiconductor manufacturing equipment—not real growth in machinery turnover. They should not be added to or averaged with VDMA’s broad machinery rate.
SEMI President and CEO Ajit Manocha said: “Following strong growth in 2024, global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are forecast to expand again this year and set a new record in 2026.” This was Manocha’s statement about SEMI’s forecast. SEMI’s July 22, 2025 release contains the figures and quotation.
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U.S. construction offered context, not a machinery-sales measure
The American Institute of Architects’ July 2025 consensus forecast pointed to modest overall nonresidential construction growth but weaker manufacturing-facility spending. Construction is one indicator of conditions facing some equipment customers; it is not a direct measure of machinery orders or sales.
| U.S. construction-spending category | 2025 forecast | 2026 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Total nonresidential building spending | +1.7% | +2.0% |
| Manufacturing-facility spending | -2.0% | -2.6% |
The AIA described overall nonresidential building spending as sluggish. Its July 2025 figures are spending projections, not machinery-market statistics. AIA’s consensus construction forecast provides the underlying U.S. projections.
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How to read the outlook
- Check the market being measured. VDMA’s real machinery-turnover estimate, MTA’s machine-tool demand forecast, SEMI’s nominal semiconductor-equipment sales, and AIA’s construction-spending projections describe different things.
- Check the forecast date. The regional and 2026 global VDMA figures come from its October 2025 bulletin; SEMI and AIA published their cited updates in July 2025.
- Read country comparisons with care. VDMA’s bulletin does not use one identical measure for every country; Germany’s figure is specifically marked as production.
- Treat the numbers as estimates, not outcomes. The cited 2025 figures are forecasts, and VDMA and MTA both describe uncertainty that could affect the path.
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