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Bird flu helped drive U.S. egg prices to a record-high retail average in March 2025, but prices did not keep climbing all year. The national average reached $6.23 per dozen that month, then declined through December; nevertheless, the 2025 average was 21.9% higher than in 2024. The original forecast that 2025 “isn’t looking much better” reflected an earlier moment. USDA’s September 2026 outlook now points to rebuilding production, not a current forecast of continued price increases.
Did bird flu make eggs more expensive?
Yes. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) says the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) wave from mid-October 2024 through early March 2025 led to the depopulation of 50.7 million egg-laying hens. Losing laying capacity tightened supply just as winter holiday demand—traditionally strong for eggs—was adding pressure.
That makes bird flu a documented contributor to the surge, not a proven explanation for every dollar of it. The cited sources do not quantify how much of the increase came from disease versus feed, labor, transport, demand, imports, or retailers’ pricing decisions. In a November 2025 PBS NewsHour segment, Michigan State University food economics and policy professor David Ortega said, “The bird flu outbreak that started in 2022 is part of what caused egg prices to skyrocket last winter.”
How high did prices get, and when did they turn?
Keep retail and wholesale figures separate: they describe different markets and are not interchangeable. ERS reported these key observations:
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| Price series | Period | Price per dozen | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| National average retail | March 2025 | $6.23 | Peak reported by ERS in January 2026 |
| National average retail | April 2025 | $5.12 | More than $1 below March’s peak |
| New York wholesale average | February 2025 | $8.20 | Wholesale market observation, not a grocery-store average |
| New York wholesale average | April 2025 | $3.74 | Wholesale market observation, not a grocery-store average |
ERS described the early-2025 wholesale surge as the result of strong demand, including seasonal winter demand, meeting tight supply. Wholesale prices fell as demand eased and new HPAI confirmations paused. The sharp wholesale decline helps explain why retail prices began falling, but it does not mean shoppers immediately saw the same prices at checkout.
Did egg prices keep going up in 2025?
No. The national average retail price fell steadily from April through December 2025. That month-to-month decline can coexist with a high annual average: ERS calculated that the average retail egg price for all of 2025 was still 21.9% above the 2024 average. A full-year comparison reflects the expensive months earlier in the year as well as the later declines.
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For additional context, ERS’s January 2026 outlook put the 2025 New York wholesale annual average at 373.7 cents per dozen and cited a national average retail price of $2.86 per dozen in November 2025. The wholesale figure is a yearly average for a particular wholesale market; the November figure is a national retail observation for one month. Neither should be presented as the other series.
Why can grocery prices stay high after wholesale prices fall?
Retail prices do not necessarily track wholesale prices immediately. ERS notes that retailer pricing strategies and contracts can mute short-term changes, and retail declines commonly lag wholesale declines. A fall in wholesale quotations can therefore precede a visible drop in a store’s shelf price. The figures above describe averages, too; an individual shopper’s price may differ by retailer, location, and timing.
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- 【Weather Protection】Slanted waterproof roof design makes your chickens feel safe and warm even in bad weather, and provide a cool environment in hot weather. Great for placing backyard or side yard.
- 【Spacious Vesatile Design】 Our 52.8" x 27.6" x 24.36" chicken house is equipped with a large lounge, 2 wide nest boxes and a ramp for comfortable living. Suitable for chickens, rabbits, ducks and other small animals.
- 【Easy To Clean】Small windows allow for good ventilation and observation. Three access areas easy to reach every inch of this chicken coop. The removable tray makes cleaning the chicken house more convenient. Keep the coop clean for healthier poultry.
What does the latest outlook say?
The 2025 forecast in the original headline is historical, not a current prediction. In its market outlook updated September 18, 2026, USDA ERS revised projected 2026 egg production and exports higher, citing rebuilding of the domestic laying flock and healthy international demand. That is production and trade context—not a guarantee of what a particular store will charge or a promise that prices will fall by a set amount.
Quick Recap
Best Value
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Rank #4
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