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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsWilliam Blair’s August 2026 view is that the market’s leadership is shifting: AI-related technology and infrastructure have lost momentum, while more industries and countries are contributing to returns. The firm calls this a stockpicker’s market—not evidence that AI is finished, that markets have entered a downturn, or that investors should sell AI holdings.
What William Blair means by a narrower AI trade
In “A Market in Transition,” published August 27, 2026, William Blair Investment Management partner Olga Bitel and strategy analyst Alexa Davis describe resilient indexes alongside a change beneath the surface. Technology drove most aggregate S&P 500 returns in April and May, then detracted materially in June and July as other sectors partly offset the decline. That is a shift in contribution and leadership, not proof that the entire S&P 500 was flat or every AI-linked company fell. The authors’ figures and discussion cover data through August 19. Read William Blair’s August commentary.
The authors’ conclusion is that investors face less obvious sector leadership and greater dispersion among companies. As they put it, “In other words, we believe it’s a classic stockpickers’ market.” That is their interpretation of conditions at the time, not a forecast that active stock selection will necessarily outperform.
What the Q2 2026 returns showed
William Blair cited the following Q2 2026 returns, drawing on FactSet and its own analysis. The benchmarks represent different market exposures, so the figures are not interchangeable or a like-for-like ranking of investable funds.
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| Exposure | Q2 2026 return reported by William Blair |
|---|---|
| U.S. all-cap equities | 15.7% |
| Emerging-market equities | 22.8% |
| Developed-market equities outside the United States | 14.0% |
| Global small-cap equities | 15.1% |
In that quarter, emerging markets and global small caps outperformed U.S. all-cap equities, while developed markets outside the U.S. returned less. These are historical benchmark results for Q2—not October 2026 performance and not a prediction about which region or company size will lead next. William Blair notes that an unmanaged index cannot be invested in directly and past performance does not indicate future returns.
How leadership looked in Q3 through August 19
William Blair’s Q3-to-date figures through August 19 show a different short window. U.S. all-cap equities were up 2.6%, developed-market equities outside the U.S. were up 2.0%, and U.S. value equities were up 5.8%. Emerging-market equities were down 2.5%. The firm linked the emerging-market decline in part to rotation in South Korean and Taiwanese companies associated with the AI technology and infrastructure buildout. These figures describe that period only; they do not establish a full-quarter or year-to-date outcome.
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Why the authors see a rotation rather than a downturn signal
William Blair says the shift was taking place within an expanding economy, not necessarily because investors expected an imminent contraction. In its August assessment, the firm pointed to improving supply- and demand-side indicators such as manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes, auto sales, and inflation-adjusted retail sales. It said economic data generally surprised to the upside in the United States, euro area, and Japan, while China and Latin America disappointed relative to expectations and emerging-market Asia lost some momentum. Those are the authors’ interpretations of conditions at the time, rather than a universal consensus or guarantee of continued growth.
The firm also identified uncertainties that could affect inflation and markets:
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- Energy prices: changes can alter business costs and inflation pressure.
- Semiconductor prices: memory-chip supply constraints were adding pressure to goods costs, although the authors said some South Korean memory-chip export-price pressure might be easing.
- Tariffs: changes in U.S. tariff policy could continue through mechanisms including Section 301. The commentary reflects the policy context in August 2026, not a claim that tariffs have since remained unchanged.
- Higher interest rates: William Blair tied rising government-bond yields to demand for capital as investment expands in physical infrastructure, manufacturing, energy, defense, and other tangible assets.
The authors argue that higher rates do not automatically mean worsening government-debt dynamics if nominal GDP grows faster than nominal borrowing costs. As a historical illustration, they said Japan’s government debt-to-GDP ratio fell 10% after peaking in 2022 while its 10-year yields rose nearly 200 basis points from 2022 through 2025. That example is a specific historical argument, not a general assurance that debt remains sustainable when rates rise.
Why slowing AI infrastructure momentum does not settle who wins from AI
Bitel’s July 15, 2026 article, “Waiting for AI Winners to Emerge,” separates near-term infrastructure activity from the longer-term investment question. It says AI infrastructure had driven equity-market gains for more than a year, while rising chip prices and capacity expansion were shifting near-term leadership toward semiconductor-equipment companies. The longer-term question, in her view, is which firms use AI to improve efficiency or generate durable revenue. The article described leading language models as “good enough” for some applications and noted declining token prices in its July discussion; neither observation identifies eventual application-layer winners.
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The same July article reported that South Korean memory-chip prices were up about 250% year over year and 50% quarter over quarter in its May 2026 data context. This is a dated report about a volatile commodity segment, not a current price change or a measure of all semiconductor prices. Read Bitel’s July AI analysis.
An earlier William Blair article, “A Broader Market Awakening,” published March 3, 2026, places the shift in a capital-expenditure context: data centers, semiconductors, cooling, power, defense, energy, and supply chains involve physical investment that may spread growth across more sectors and regions. It describes broader leadership in 2025 and early 2026. That provides context for the structural thesis; it does not replace the August commentary’s more recent, time-bounded figures. Read the March article.
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What this market commentary does—and does not—say about a portfolio
A broader market can change the balance of risks and opportunities, but the William Blair commentary is not individualized portfolio advice. It does not recommend selling AI holdings or choosing emerging markets, small caps, value stocks, or any other exposure. Past returns over one quarter or a partial quarter do not establish which investments suit a person’s goals, time horizon, or ability to tolerate losses.
To assess claims about market leadership, keep the comparison consistent: distinguish U.S. from non-U.S. regions, all-cap from small-cap or value exposures, and sector performance from a thesis about future earnings or capital spending. Most importantly, do not mix Q2 returns with Q3-to-date figures or treat either as current performance. The August article’s figures stop on August 19, 2026.
Kiplinger also summarized Bitel and Davis’s transition view, with data through August 31 in its separate coverage. Read Kiplinger’s coverage of investing styles.
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