What’s actually slowing this PC down?
Pick the symptom - the matching free tool is one click away.
Canadian households are reporting a squeeze in confidence: their near-term inflation expectations rose in the Bank of Canada’s second-quarter 2026 survey, while fewer respondents said they were planning or thinking about buying a home and expected home-price growth eased. Those answers describe expectations and intentions—not measured inflation, completed sales or what home prices will do next.
What Canadians expect about inflation and housing
The Bank of Canada’s Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) is a quarterly survey of household views on inflation, the labour market and finances, as well as topical issues. In its Q2 2026 results, respondents expected inflation to be higher over both the next year and the next two years than they had in Q1.
| Measure | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | What it describes |
|---|---|---|---|
| One-year-ahead inflation expectation | 4.08% | 3.98% | Respondents’ expected inflation, not the official CPI inflation rate. Bank of Canada |
| Two-year-ahead inflation expectation | 3.97% | 3.57% | Respondents’ expected inflation, not a forecast of the eventual CPI result. Bank of Canada |
| Planning or thinking of buying a house or condo | 13.40% | 14.38% | Survey intentions; the Q4 2025 result was 16.54%. This is not a tally of purchases. Bank of Canada |
| Expected average home-price growth in respondents’ area | 3.61% | 3.76% | National expectation; the Q4 2025 result was 4.35%. It is not realized price appreciation. Bank of Canada |
The pattern is mixed rather than a simple collapse in housing optimism: inflation expectations rose, but homebuying intentions and expected home-price growth declined from Q4 2025. These measures do not show why each respondent changed their view or establish that fewer people ultimately bought homes.
Why home-price expectations vary by province
The national expected home-price growth figure masks substantial regional variation. In Q2 2026, the Bank of Canada survey’s provincial expectations ranged from 0.61% in British Columbia to 5.38% in Saskatchewan.
#1 Best Overall
| Province or region | Q2 2026 expected average home-price growth |
|---|---|
| British Columbia | 0.61% |
| Ontario | 2.54% |
| Alberta | 3.63% |
| Atlantic Canada | 4.00% |
| Manitoba | 4.68% |
| Quebec | 5.02% |
| Saskatchewan | 5.38% |
These are respondents’ expectations for the average home price in their area, not a forecast of what any particular home will sell for. A national average can therefore obscure very different local outlooks. Bank of Canada
Affordability concerns are a separate measure
A separate Angus Reid Institute survey found that 71% of respondents considered typical home prices in their neighbourhood high—43% described them as unreasonably high, while the remainder said high but understandable. The institute compared the 43% unreasonably-high response with 32% in its 2016 comparison. Fieldwork ran June 4–10, 2026, and included 4,237 Canadian adults. Angus Reid Institute
This is a measure of perceived local affordability, not a home-price forecast or a follow-up to the Bank of Canada survey. The two surveys ask different questions of their respondents, so their results should not be combined as if they were one measure of sentiment.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Mortgage renewals bring another kind of pressure
CMHC’s survey of more than 4,100 people across Canada, contacted in January 2026, found that 35% of mortgage renewers faced higher payments, averaging $375 more per month. At the same time, CMHC described overall financial stress as easing compared with the prior year. CMHC
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsThe renewal figure concerns people who completed mortgage transactions and encountered higher payments; it does not describe all homeowners or renters. Read alongside CMHC’s broader finding, it points to uneven experiences rather than a single direction for household finances.
Quick Recap
Best Value
Rank #4
How to read the survey results
- Expectations are not outcomes. The CSCE inflation figures reflect what respondents think inflation will be; they are not the official CPI inflation rate. The homebuying result captures people planning or thinking about a purchase, not completed transactions, while price-growth expectations are not actual appreciation.
- Different surveys measure different things. The Bank of Canada asks about expectations and intentions; Angus Reid asks how respondents perceive neighbourhood prices; CMHC reports on mortgage renewers’ payment experiences and overall financial stress.
- Results describe respondents, not a unanimous national view. The Bank says its sample-selection method aims to produce a cross-section representative of Canada and provides results by factors such as age, geography, income and education. It also cautions that survey results summarize respondents’ opinions and “do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Bank of Canada.” Bank of Canada
- Expectations do not prove a cause or future result. The figures show reported views at particular times; they do not establish that inflation will rise to the expected level, home prices will grow at the expected rate, or intentions will translate into purchases.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
