The Office for Budget Responsibility’s November 2025 forecast projected average UK real GDP growth of 1.5% over the forecast period, borrowing falling to 1.9% of GDP by 2030-31, and public debt ending the decade at 96% of GDP. It put the current-budget headroom against the government’s target at £22 billion in 2029-30 after Budget measures, while warning that the margin was small relative to forecast uncertainty. These were projections published on 26 November 2025, not a record of what subsequently happened.
What were the OBR’s main forecasts in November 2025?
The OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO), published on 26 November 2025, set out its central economic and fiscal forecast for the five years to 2030-31. It incorporated government policies announced up to and including the November 2025 Autumn Budget. The figures below are forecasts, not later outturns.
| Measure | November 2025 forecast | What it refers to |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 1.5% average over the forecast period | Average annual real growth; 0.3 percentage points below the OBR’s March 2025 projection. |
| Public sector net borrowing | 4.5% of GDP in 2025-26, falling to 1.9% in 2030-31 | The annual deficit is forecast to decline as a share of GDP across those years. |
| Public debt | 95% of GDP in 2025-26, ending the decade at 96% | Debt is projected to remain high and edge up over the period. |
| Tax-to-GDP ratio | 38.3% in 2030-31 | The OBR described this as a post-war high in its forecast. |
| Current-budget headroom | £22 billion in 2029-30 after Budget measures | The forecast margin against the current budget target in that year. |
The forecast was the collective view of the three independent members of the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee. The OBR’s duty, as stated in the report’s foreword, is “to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances”.
How much headroom did the November 2025 forecast show?
£22 billion after the Budget
The OBR projected that the current budget target would be met in 2029-30 with £22 billion of headroom after Budget measures. Before those measures, the projected margin was £4 billion. Headroom is the forecast distance between the projected current-budget position and the target; it is not cash set aside or a guaranteed cushion.
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Why the margin is uncertain
The OBR cautioned that £22 billion was small compared with the uncertainty around economic and fiscal forecasts. It depends on assumptions about the economy and the cost and effects of government policies. A change in interest rates, wages, productivity or other forecast drivers could alter the projected margin.
Why did the forecast change from March 2025?
Lower productivity assumptions weighed on growth
The OBR lowered its underlying productivity-growth assumption, the primary reason its average real GDP growth forecast was 0.3 percentage points below the March 2025 projection.
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Inflation, wages and frozen thresholds supported receipts
Weaker real growth was partly offset by higher inflation and wage growth. The OBR judged that this made nominal growth more tax-rich than in March: nominal activity and incomes can generate more tax receipts even when inflation-adjusted growth is weaker. Frozen personal tax thresholds also increased receipts through fiscal drag, as more income is exposed to tax when thresholds do not rise with earnings.
Budget tax and spending measures changed borrowing over time
The Budget raised taxes by amounts reaching £26 billion in 2029-30 and increased spending in every forecast year. Spending changes included reversals to welfare cuts and lifting the two-child limit in Universal Credit. Taken together, Budget tax and spending measures increased borrowing on average over the next three years, then reduced it on average over the following two.
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What risks could change the forecast?
Interest rates and gilt yields
In a sensitivity analysis, the OBR estimated that a sustained 1 percentage point increase in Bank Rate and gilt yields would raise the current budget deficit by £16 billion in 2029-30. This is a scenario, not the central forecast or a prediction that rates will rise by that amount.
Productivity, earnings and financial markets
The OBR highlighted uncertainty about productivity, earnings growth, interest rates and gilt yields, as well as equity prices. These factors can affect output, tax receipts and the government’s debt-interest costs.
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Spending pressures and policy effects
The report also identified risks around welfare spending and health and disability caseloads, local-authority budgets and other public-service spending pressures. It noted uncertainty over the revenue yield and behavioural effects of complex tax changes: taxpayers’ responses can affect how much a policy ultimately raises.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What dates and assumptions shaped the forecast?
The forecast reflects information available at the time, not current market conditions. For the pre-measures economy forecast, market assumptions averaged the ten working days to 10 October 2025. The fiscal forecast used a later interest-rate window, averaging the ten working days to 21 October 2025. The OBR also incorporated ONS Quarterly National Accounts released on 30 September 2025 and revisions consistent with Blue Book 2025.
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The OBR subsequently published supplementary details on selected November policy costings, including capital gains tax relief for qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts, non-domicile regime reforms, a high-value council tax surcharge, agricultural and business property relief allowances, an electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle mileage-based charge, and non-labour components of income tax. Those details concern specific costings; they do not turn the November EFO’s central projections into outturn data.
How to use this forecast now
The OBR forecast index indicates that a later EFO followed the November 2025 report. The November figures should therefore be treated as a dated baseline, not as the latest forecast or a statement of current conditions. To compare forecasts properly, align the fiscal years and distinguish pre-measures projections from post-measures projections. Also separate forecasts from outturns: a forecast records what the OBR expected at publication, while an outturn records what was later measured.
Quick Recap
- Use the 1.5% figure as the OBR’s average real-growth projection, not a prediction for every individual year.
- Keep the £22 billion figure tied to the 2029-30 current-budget target and the post-Budget forecast.
- Do not treat the projected 38.3% tax-to-GDP ratio or 96% debt ratio as figures already realised.
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