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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteA YES price of 63¢ in a standard $1 binary prediction market is commonly read as an approximate 63% market-implied probability. If you buy one YES share at that price and hold it to settlement, you pay 63¢, receive $1 if YES wins, and lose the 63¢ if it loses. The price reflects traders’ perceptions—not a guarantee that the event will happen or an objective measure of its true likelihood.
What prediction market odds mean
A standard binary contract asks whether a specifically defined event will occur. It has two opposing outcomes, YES and NO, which settle according to the contract’s rules. In a common structure, the winning side pays $1 per share and the losing side pays $0. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) explains that a contract’s price reflects traders’ perceived probability of the event outcome; Kalshi similarly describes price as market-implied probability. CFTC consumer guide to event contracts; Kalshi’s odds explainer.
For a $1 binary contract, a YES price of 63¢ is therefore often read as about 63% implied probability. It is a market price shaped by orders and beliefs, not a promise of success, a guaranteed-correct forecast, or a measured frequency showing how often such events occur. The same rough reading applies to a NO share’s price, but use the actual price available for the side you intend to buy.
How to calculate a prediction market payout
For one standard $1 binary share bought at price p dollars and held until settlement, the arithmetic is:
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- Cost: p.
- Gross payout if it wins: $1.
- Gross profit if it wins: $1 − p.
- Amount lost if it loses: p.
For n shares, multiply each per-share amount by n: cost is n × p; winning gross payout is n × $1; winning gross profit is n × ($1 − p); and the losing amount is n × p. These figures are before fees and taxes, which can reduce net profit. The CFTC’s fixed-payout example and Kalshi’s odds explanation distinguish the amount paid from potential winnings. CFTC consumer guide; Kalshi’s odds explainer.
Worked example: 10 YES shares at 25¢
Ten shares at 25¢ each cost $2.50. If YES resolves true, the gross payout is $10, so gross profit is $7.50 before fees and taxes. If YES resolves false, the $2.50 purchase cost is lost. At 25¢, the potential gross profit is three times the stake if the share wins; at 50¢, it is even money; at 75¢, a winning share pays $1, producing 25¢ gross profit on a 75¢ cost.
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Why the displayed odds may differ from your trade
A displayed probability or last-traded price does not necessarily tell you what price you can get for a new order. Check the executable price and order-book conditions: a bid is the best resting buy price, an ask is the lowest resting sell price, and the spread is the distance between them. The quantity available at a quoted price can also matter. Kalshi Pro glossary, updated September 4, 2026.
Do not assume the available YES and NO offers add to exactly $1. They are separate order-book prices, and bid/ask differences and the spread affect what a buyer pays or a seller receives. Use the actual purchase price of the contract in the payout formula rather than deriving one side’s price from the other.
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What to check before relying on a payout figure
- Read the contract definition. Check the exact event wording, expiration, settlement source, and settlement method. A market may resolve differently from what a casual reading of the event suggests.
- Use a price you can actually trade at. Review the bid, ask, spread, and available quantity rather than relying only on a displayed probability or last price.
- Account for costs. Check the platform’s current fee schedule and any applicable taxes; both can reduce returns.
- Confirm the payout structure. The simple formula applies to a $1/$0 binary contract. Multiple-choice contracts or ranges with partial payouts require their own payout terms and calculations. The Federal Reserve staff paper describes the $1-if-true, $0-otherwise structure as one contract form, not the only possible form. Federal Reserve staff paper on prediction-market structure.
- Distinguish settlement from an early exit. A position may be sold before settlement at the then-current market price. The resulting gain or loss depends on the price you receive compared with your cost; it is not necessarily the final binary payout.
The CFTC advises customers to review market- and contract-specific rules, understand risks and costs, and use only risk capital. Eligibility, protections, fees, displayed-price conventions, and settlement rules vary by venue and contract and may change, so check the current official terms for the market you are considering. CFTC event-contract guidance; CFTC customer guidance.
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