The claimed MBA adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) index changes for the week of October 2, 2026—a 3.6% weekly decline, a 3.2% rise versus four weeks earlier, and a 31.1% decline versus a year earlier—could not be confirmed from an MBA release. The latest surfaced official release is dated September 30 and covers the week ending September 25, so those October 2 comparisons should not be treated as verified MBA figures.
What can be confirmed about the October 2 figures?
The three figures in the headline claim remain unverified: -3.6% for the week, +3.2% versus four weeks earlier, and -31.1% versus one year earlier. The latest surfaced MBA release is dated September 30, 2026, and covers the week ending September 25; it does not establish the October 2 index value or its comparison periods. MBA’s September 30 release
Accordingly, the three changes should be described as unconfirmed claims, not as reported results from the MBA. Confirming them requires an MBA release or index table for the relevant reporting week and the matching comparison periods.
What the MBA survey measures—and what it does not establish here
The MBA says its Weekly Applications Survey covers 15 indices spanning fixed-rate, adjustable-rate, conventional, and government loans for purchase and refinance applications. Historical index data extend back to the survey’s 1990 start; unadjusted indices were set to 100.00 for the week of March 16, 1990. Those details describe the survey broadly, but do not establish the construction, unit, or October 2 value of the specific ARM index at issue. MBA Weekly Applications Survey
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An index change is also different from the ARM share of applications. A percentage change in an index cannot be read as a percentage-point change in application share, and neither measure is itself an interest-rate change.
Latest verified ARM context: week ending September 25
In the MBA release dated September 30, 2026, ARMs accounted for 10.3% of applications for the week ending September 25, and ARM rates were reported to be around 80 basis points below fixed-rate loans. These figures describe application share and relative rates for that earlier week; they do not confirm the October 2 index changes. MBA, September 30 release
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For comparison, the MBA’s September 23 release, covering the week ending September 18, reported that ARMs made up 9.8% of total applications. That is a share measure from a different week, not a substitute for the ARM index or a direct comparison with the claimed index movements. MBA, September 23 release
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to interpret the three claimed comparisons
- Week over week: The claimed -3.6% would indicate a decline in the specified index only if the underlying MBA series confirms it.
- Versus four weeks earlier: The claimed +3.2% compares different reporting points; it is not the same as a four-week change in ARM application share.
- Versus one year earlier: The claimed -31.1% is a year-over-year index comparison, not evidence by itself that ARM borrowing costs or ARM application share fell by that amount.
For any confirmed comparison, the reporting week, exact index series, and baseline week need to match. The available MBA materials here do not verify those October 2 values.
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