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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →U.S. money-market funds took in $158 billion in the first three quarters of 2026, according to TD Securities data reported by Reuters on October 6. That is a much slower pace than the $823 billion funds took in during all of 2025 or the $840 billion in 2024—but those comparisons cover nine months against full years. The slowdown can mean less new money available to buy Treasury bills; it does not mean funds were selling them.
What slowed: new inflows and bill accumulation
Inflows are a flow, not the amount already invested
The $158 billion figure measures money entering funds during the first three quarters of 2026. It is not a measure of total fund assets. The comparison with $823 billion in 2025 and $840 billion in 2024 indicates a slower pace, but it is not a like-for-like annual comparison because the 2026 figure covers only nine months.
The distinction matters because a large pool of existing assets can remain in place even when fewer dollars are arriving. The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report put total money-market-fund assets at $7.9 trillion in January 2026, up from $7.2 trillion a year earlier. Government funds accounted for most of that increase; the report said the funds’ yields had likely remained more attractive than most bank deposit rates.
Funds were still adding Treasury bills
Investment Company Institute data reported by Reuters show money-market funds’ Treasury-bill holdings rose about 4% from year-end 2025 through the end of August 2026. Holdings had risen 18% over all of 2025. The slower growth points to weaker incremental buying, not net liquidation: funds were still net buyers of bills.
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What the wider bill/OIS spread says
Reuters reported that the three-month Treasury-bill yield’s spread over overnight index swaps (OIS) was nearly 10 basis points on October 5, 2026. It had reached its widest level since September 2024 the prior week. The six-month spread was 11.3 basis points on October 5, after touching 12.5 basis points—the widest since April 2025. These are observations reported on October 6, not live market quotes.
OIS rates reflect the market’s implied path for short-term policy rates. When a bill yield is higher relative to OIS, bills are offering more compensation than that benchmark at the time. The spread can help show pressure in bill pricing, but it does not by itself identify the cause or measure credit risk alone.
Why bill yields faced pressure
Less marginal demand met expectations of more supply
With a slower pace of fund inflows, money-market funds had less new cash to allocate. At the same time, Barclays estimated Treasury bill issuance at roughly $225 billion in October and $160 billion in November 2026. Those are estimates, not final issuance figures. If supply grows while marginal demand softens, issuers may need to offer higher yields to attract buyers.
Other forces were also in play. Reuters cited expectations of rate hikes, as well as a strong equity market that may have reduced the incentive for investors to shift money into cash funds. The wider bill/OIS spreads are consistent with pressure on bill pricing, but the available evidence does not establish slower fund buying as the sole cause.
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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallSam Earl, a U.S. rates strategist at Barclays, told Reuters: “If money funds are not getting those inflows, then they have to think about where they want to put their money.” Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, said: “The Treasury is keen to focus more of the issuance on the very front of the curve in bills, but the largest source of demand is slowing and that’s concerning.”
Federal Reserve buying is part of the backdrop
The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report said the Fed had purchased nearly $250 billion in Treasury bills since early January: about $160 billion in reserve-management purchases and $90 billion in reinvestments of principal payments on agency mortgage-backed securities. Those purchases and broader market conditions are relevant context, but they do not rule out weaker marginal demand from private money-market funds affecting bill pricing.
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Does slower inflow mean funds are selling bills?
No. The reported holdings data show funds continued to accumulate bills, just more slowly. A fund’s decision about how to allocate new cash is different from selling securities already in its portfolio. Likewise, slower growth in holdings does not mean the whole market’s bill demand has fallen by the same amount.
For example, Federal Reserve Financial Accounts table F3.2.t reports economy-wide net purchases of Treasury bills of $929.0 billion in 2026 Q1 and $116.1 billion in Q2. Those figures cover the broader domestic financial accounts, not money-market funds alone, so they cannot be used as a substitute for the fund-specific holdings figures.
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Could this create repo-market stress?
How bill demand can affect repo
Money-market funds invest in both Treasury bills and repurchase agreements, or repo, which are short-term, collateralized loans. Bills and repo can compete for fund cash. A Federal Reserve research note published August 26, 2026, explains that if privately held bill supply increases, funds may have less cash available to lend in repo, potentially putting upward pressure on repo rates. That is a conditional market mechanism, not proof that slower inflows have already caused a funding disruption.
What market conditions showed
Reuters reported that repo markets had remained orderly. The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report described money-market conditions as stable, while noting they had softened somewhat since the beginning of the year; it also said money-market funds maintained near-record assets. Together, these observations point to vulnerability worth monitoring, not an established repo crisis.
What could change the flow picture
Reuters noted that money-market-fund inflows often accelerate in the fourth quarter as investors prepare for year-end liquidity needs, taxes, and portfolio rebalancing. That historical seasonality could affect demand later in 2026, but it does not guarantee a rebound. The key signals to follow are whether new fund inflows pick up, whether funds’ bill holdings resume faster growth, how much bill supply is issued, and whether repo-market conditions remain orderly.
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