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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →As of Wednesday, October 7, the US stock market looks bullish week to date: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 all gained on Monday and Tuesday. That does not settle whether they will finish Friday higher. Federal Reserve minutes, economic data, Treasury yields and oil prices could still change the tone.
How the major indexes have performed so far
Associated Press closing figures show gains in all three indexes on both October 5 and October 6. The Nasdaq Composite set a record on Monday; the S&P 500 closed at a record on Tuesday, and the Nasdaq notched its second consecutive record that day.
| Session | S&P 500 | Dow Jones Industrial Average | Nasdaq Composite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Oct. 5 | 7,773.95, up 0.7% | 51,267.90, up 0.2% | 27,477.31, up 1.1%; record close |
| Tuesday, Oct. 6 | 7,818.93, up 0.6%; record close | 51,521.28, up 0.5% | 27,599.79, up 0.4%; second consecutive record close |
Source: Associated Press market reports for October 5 and 6, 2026. The daily changes are session returns, not forecasts for the rest of the week.
What could move stocks from Wednesday through Friday
Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday
The Federal Open Market Committee minutes are scheduled for release at 2 p.m. Eastern on October 7, according to Kiplinger’s economic calendar. Investors may look for clues about policymakers’ views on inflation, employment and interest rates. The minutes’ effect on stocks will depend on what they say and how markets interpret them.
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Jobless claims and consumer sentiment on Thursday
Kiplinger lists weekly jobless claims for the week ending October 3 and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October on October 8. Claims offer a fresh labor-market reading, while the sentiment survey can inform views about households and inflation expectations. Neither release has a predetermined market effect.
Treasury yields and oil prices
Bond yields and energy prices are important watchpoints in the outlooks for this week. On Monday, AP reported that the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31%, while Brent crude fluctuated between $100 and $103 a barrel before settling a little above $100. On Tuesday, easing bond yields helped support stocks, AP reported. A renewed rise in yields could weigh on equities, while oil’s direction may influence inflation concerns.
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Corporate earnings
AP reported that FactSet analysts expected nearly 30% growth in S&P 500 earnings per share from a year earlier. That is an expectation, not realized earnings growth, and AP described earnings optimism as helping stocks contend with high yields. Kiplinger’s calendar lists reports scheduled during the remaining days of the week, including Applied Digital, PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines. The calendar says dates in its earnings tables are tentative unless a company appears in its Earnings Spotlights, whose dates it describes as officially announced. The Q3 earnings season was not expected to fully get underway until October 13, according to the Goodreturns outlook.
The bullish and bearish cases
What supports a bullish view
- All three indexes advanced in each of the first two sessions, with record closes for the Nasdaq on Monday and for the S&P 500 on Tuesday.
- AP reported that Tuesday’s easing yields supported stocks, alongside a company electricity deal and better-than-expected results from Lamb Weston.
- The reported earnings outlook offers another potential support, though the nearly 30% figure is a forecast rather than a reported result.
What could turn the tone bearish
- The Monday rise in the 10-year yield and volatile oil prices show that financial conditions and energy markets were already potential sources of pressure.
- Economic releases or Fed minutes that renew concern about inflation, activity or interest rates could weigh on stock valuations, particularly if yields rise again.
- The first two sessions’ gains cannot establish how indexes will respond to the remaining catalysts or where they will close on Friday.
These are conditional scenarios, not a claim that any release will produce a particular market move. Nathan Peterson, Director of Derivatives Research and Strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research, described his outlook to Goodreturns as “moderately bullish,” while warning that rising yields could pressure equities.
What the Fed probability figures do—and do not—say
Kiplinger reported that CME FedWatch showed an 83.9% probability of an October rate hold as of October 2, up from 35.8% on September 25, and a 66.1% probability of a 25-basis-point December hike. These are dated, futures-implied market probabilities reported by Kiplinger—not Federal Reserve guidance or a live reading for October 7. They describe market pricing at those dates and do not predict how the Fed will decide.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.So, will the market finish the week up or down?
The most defensible answer is that the tape was bullish through Tuesday, but the full-week direction remains uncertain. The evidence supports describing gains already recorded; it does not establish a Friday outcome or a reliable index target. For the remainder of the week, the direction will depend on how investors weigh the Fed minutes and data against yields, oil prices and earnings news. This is a market outlook, not a guarantee or individualized investment advice.
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