The Tool Desk
Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →No one can reliably say what SCHD’s share price, total return or distributions will be in 2036. Its past performance offers context, not a forecast: Schwab reported a 13.17% annualized 10-year return through August 31, 2026, but the next decade will depend on company results, valuations, index changes and other factors that can’t be known today.
What SCHD is designed to do
The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) is a passive fund that tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index. The index selects dividend-paying U.S. companies using measures of relative fundamental strength, including financial ratios; it is not simply a list of the highest-yielding stocks. The index contains 100 companies, excludes real estate investment trusts (REITs) and uses modified market-cap weighting. Schwab’s fund page and its index description explain the approach.
As of October 6, 2026, Schwab listed 102 holdings and a 0.060% expense ratio. Its trailing-12-month distribution yield was 3.00% as of August 31, 2026. These are dated snapshots, not permanent fund characteristics: holdings can change, and yield moves with both distributions and the market price.
What the 10-year record says—and what it doesn’t
For the 10 years ending August 31, 2026, Schwab reported an annualized 13.17% return for SCHD’s net asset value (NAV). For the same period, it reported a 13.26% annualized return for the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index. The index is unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly, so its return is not a return an investor could have received by buying the index. Schwab’s performance figures are historical and do not establish what SCHD will return in the next decade.
#1 Best Overall
| Measure | Annualized return | Period end | What it represents |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCHD NAV | 13.17% | August 31, 2026 | Historical fund return reported by Schwab |
| Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index | 13.26% | August 31, 2026 | Unmanaged index return; not directly investable |
The end date matters. Schwab also reported a 12.37% annualized SCHD NAV return for the 10 years ending June 30, 2026. That figure covers a different measurement window, so it does not contradict the August result. Comparing performance figures requires matching both the time period and the return measure.
Schwab’s warning is direct: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” Investment returns and principal fluctuate, and investors can lose money. The fund’s own shorter-term history shows why a strong decade-wide annualized figure should not be mistaken for a smooth ride: its worst listed three-month return was -21.55% from December 31, 2019, to March 31, 2020. Its best listed three-month return was +18.01% from January 31 to April 30, 2021. These are individual periods, not a complete picture of the range or likelihood of future returns.
Rank #2
Future income is different from future total return
A distribution yield is not the same as total return. Shareholders’ total return reflects both changes in the investment’s value and distributions, including the effect of reinvesting them. A yield figure therefore does not tell you how much the fund’s price will rise or fall, or what your overall return will be.
Schwab reported SCHD per-share distributions of $0.2569 for the March 2026 ex-date, $0.2525 for the June ex-date and $0.2665 for the September ex-date. Those payments show that distributions can vary from quarter to quarter; they do not promise a particular future payment or growth rate. The 3.00% trailing-12-month yield cited above was measured as of August 31, 2026, and can change as the share price and distributions change. Schwab’s distribution and yield information is date-specific.
Why a 2036 point estimate would be misleading
SCHD’s future outcome depends on a chain of unknowns: how its constituent companies’ earnings and dividends develop, how investors value those companies, which stocks the index selects or removes, and how sector weights shift. Fees, the size and timing of distributions, and whether an investor reinvests them also affect personal results. The historical 13.17% figure does not tell us what those inputs will be.
Multiplying an investment today by 13.17% annually for 10 years would produce a hypothetical calculation, not a defensible forecast. It would assume that a specific past return repeats, while leaving out the uncertainty in future market and fund results. Schwab’s published figures do not establish a numerical forecast for SCHD’s 2036 price, total return, yield or distributions.
Rank #4
How to judge whether SCHD fits your plans
Rather than rely on one backward-looking return, assess the fund against the role you want it to play and the risks you can tolerate. Useful questions include:
- Strategy: Do you want an index focused on dividend-paying U.S. companies selected using financial-strength measures, rather than a broad-market strategy or a different dividend approach?
- Income expectations: Can you tolerate variable distributions instead of treating the current yield as a promised payment?
- Risk and time horizon: Could you stay invested through a substantial decline without needing to sell at an unfavorable time?
- Portfolio balance: Does the fund’s sector and company exposure complement your other investments? Its holdings and weights can change.
- Costs and taxes: Consider the fund’s expense ratio alongside account type and your tax circumstances. The expense ratio is not the only cost or tax consideration relevant to an investor.
- Alternatives: When comparing funds, match the measurement dates and periods for total return, and examine selection rules, sector exposure, distribution variability, fees and drawdowns on comparable terms.
Keep the 2024 share split in mind when comparing history
Schwab’s 3-for-1 share split took effect October 10, 2024, with post-split trading beginning October 11. A split increases the number of shares and reduces NAV per share proportionally; by itself, it does not change the total value of an investor’s position. Raw share prices or per-share distributions from before and after the split therefore should not be compared as if the share count had remained unchanged. Schwab’s product information notes the split.
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