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NPS Returns: What One-Year Losses and Five-Year Gains Say About Asset Allocation

A dated NPS comparison shows the trade-off between short-term losses and five-year annualized returns, while highlighting why averages do not dictate an individual allocation.
From TheFinanceBase Team1 min to read
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As of October 1, 2026, Moneycontrol’s comparison of NPS Common Scheme Tier I performance showed a clear trade-off: equity had the weakest one-year average but the strongest five-year average among the three main asset classes. In its model portfolios, higher equity exposure also coincided with a larger one-year loss and a higher five-year annualized return. These dated results illustrate how the measurement period changes the picture; they do not predict returns or identify the right allocation for every subscriber.

What the NPS return snapshot shows

Moneycontrol reported these average returns as of October 1, 2026. The figures describe two different scopes, so they should not be combined: the first row is its NPS Common Scheme Tier I average; the next two are broader averages across pension fund managers.

Asset class One-year average return Five-year average return
NPS Common Scheme Tier I average Equity −5.98% not stated by Moneycontrol for this scope
NPS Common Scheme Tier I average Government securities 2.11% not stated by Moneycontrol for this scope
NPS Common Scheme Tier I average Corporate bonds 4.68% not stated by Moneycontrol for this scope
Broader average across pension fund managers Equity −5.38% 8.20% annualized
Broader average across pension fund managers Government securities 2.28% 5.84% annualized
Broader average across pension fund managers Corporate bonds 4.26% 6.15% annualized

The five-year figures are annualized returns, not total gains over the whole five-year period. The difference between a negative one-year equity result and a positive five-year annualized average is not a contradiction: the figures cover different time windows. A longer measurement period can include both weak and strong stretches, but the five-year average does not show the path or guarantee a recovery for a particular investor.

Moneycontrol says its comparison uses NPS data as of October 1, 2026. The official data table matching that exact date and the publication’s constructed portfolio calculations was not independently located. Treat the numbers as figures reported by Moneycontrol, rather than as independently reconciled results.

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How the model portfolios compare

Moneycontrol also compared three illustrative mixes. Its reported averages show that the portfolio with the largest equity share had both the deepest one-year decline and the highest five-year annualized return.

Illustrative mix Equity Corporate bonds Government securities Average one-year return Average annualized five-year return
Aggressive 75% 15% 10% −3.17% 7.54%
Balanced 50% 25% 25% −1.06% 7.03%
Conservative 35% 35% 30% 0.19% 6.71%

These are historical model-portfolio averages reported by Moneycontrol, not returns available to every NPS subscriber or forecasts for those mixes. The pattern helps explain the trade-off: a higher equity weight was associated with greater short-period downside and a stronger five-year annualized result in this comparison. It does not establish that the aggressive mix is best, or that the ordering will persist.

Manager-level results vary

Category averages can conceal differences among pension fund managers. Moneycontrol reported the following examples for the same October 1, 2026 snapshot:

  • Equity: DSP had the steepest one-year decline at 8.26%, followed by Kotak at 7.39% and UTI at 7.22%. ICICI led five-year equity returns at 8.67%; SBI was lowest at 7.01%.
  • Government securities: ICICI led one-year returns at 2.55%, while Tata was lowest at 1.55%. Aditya Birla led five-year returns at 5.94%; Kotak was lowest at 5.44%.
  • Corporate bonds: Kotak led one-year returns at 5.07%, followed by UTI at 4.96%; Tata was lowest at 4.19%. HDFC led five-year returns at 6.58%; LIC was lowest at 6.14%.

These are manager-specific figures reported by Moneycontrol, not a ranking that establishes which manager or allocation will perform best in the future.

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What these results can—and cannot—tell you about allocation

The snapshot is useful for understanding the historical relationship between asset mix and volatility, not for making a personal recommendation. A suitable allocation depends on your time horizon, capacity to withstand losses, subscriber category and the NPS rules that apply to you. A five-year annualized average cannot tell you whether you can tolerate a sharp decline on the way to that result.

Before changing an allocation, consider:

  • When you expect to need the money: a longer horizon may leave more time to ride out market swings, but it does not remove investment risk.
  • How much loss you can bear: a portfolio that is difficult to stick with during a downturn may not suit you, even if its historical long-period average is higher.
  • Which choices are available to you: NPS routes and allocation limits can depend on subscriber category and current rules.
  • What the comparison measures: distinguish a category average, a manager’s return and a model-portfolio average, and check whether a multi-year figure is annualized.

Moneycontrol quoted Amit HL, founder of Floatr, saying that asset allocation can help investors stay invested through volatility while retaining equity exposure for long-term growth. That is a general rationale, not evidence that any particular equity share is appropriate for an individual.

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Active Choice and Auto Choice in NPS

NPS offers different routes for setting asset allocation. The official NPS CRA scheme-preference form describes Active Choice as subscriber-directed and Auto Choice as a life-cycle fund route. In the form’s described context, E means equity and related instruments, C corporate debt and related instruments, G government bonds and related instruments, and A alternative investment funds. The form also says its default life-cycle choice when none is indicated is LC 50, and lists LC 75, LC 50 and LC 25 equity caps.

Active Choice

Under the cited form’s described rules, equity is capped at 75% up to age 50, with the ceiling tapering thereafter. The allocation across chosen asset classes must total 100%. The form says asset class A is available only for Tier I in its context. Because subscriber-sector rules and current regulations may differ, verify the rules that apply to your own account before changing a preference.

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Auto Choice

Auto Choice uses a life-cycle fund route rather than asking the subscriber to set each asset-class weight directly. The cited form names LC 75, LC 50 and LC 25; its default when no choice is indicated is LC 50 in the form’s described context. Check the current applicable NPS materials for eligibility and the exact rules for your subscriber category.

Sources and scope

Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.

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