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Mortgage rates rose from 6.71% on September 3 to 7.28% in the first week of October 2026, according to Freddie Mac figures cited by Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). At the same time, NWMLS’s September data show more homes for sale and fewer pending and completed sales across its service area. That points to more buyer choice and weaker transaction activity—not a reliable forecast of where prices or rates go next.
What changed in mortgage rates and the market?
NWMLS, citing Freddie Mac, reported an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.71% on September 3, 7.03% on September 24, and 7.28% in the first week of October 2026. These are dated averages, not rates guaranteed to an individual borrower; a lender’s offer depends on the borrower and loan. NWMLS’s October 6 update reported the rate observations alongside September market figures.
For the NWMLS service area, September brought 24,965 active listings, up 24.5% from a year earlier. There were 6,231 pending sales, down 15.1%, and 5,623 closed sales, down 8.9%. Months of inventory rose to 4.44 from 3.25 in September 2025. Together, these indicators show that available listings grew while fewer homes entered or completed a sale.
What the supply and sales figures mean for buyers and sellers
Active listings count homes available at a point in time. Pending sales count homes under contract, while closed sales count completed transactions; they are different measures and can move differently. Months of inventory is a way of expressing the balance between listings and the pace of sales, not a count of how long a particular home will take to sell.
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NWMLS says expanding inventory typically gives buyers more time to compare homes and more room to negotiate. That is a change in conditions, not a promise of a discount: location, property condition, pricing, and competing offers still matter. For sellers, fewer pending and closed sales mean the market is absorbing homes less quickly than a year earlier, making realistic pricing and preparation more important.
The rate increase adds to the cost of financing a given loan amount, which can affect what a buyer can afford. The published market figures do not isolate how much of the decline in sales activity is caused by rates versus other factors, so they cannot quantify the rate effect on the market.
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NWMLS service-area trends are not Seattle city statistics
The figures above describe the full NWMLS service area, not Seattle city alone. In September 2026, the service-area median sale price was $625,000, down 0.9% year over year. King County’s median was $850,000, unchanged year over year. Neither figure should be presented as a Seattle-city median or a forecast for an individual neighborhood. NWMLS’s September snapshot reports the geographic measures.
A median is the midpoint of homes sold during a period, not a measure of how the same homes changed in value. The homes and locations sold can vary from month to month, so a median may shift with the mix of transactions as well as with underlying prices.
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Condos are showing more inventory pressure than single-family homes
NWMLS’s September figures show different conditions by property type across its service area, while King County condo figures provide a separate county-level comparison:
| Market and property type | Months of inventory | Median sale price |
|---|---|---|
| NWMLS service area, single-family homes | 4.20 | $643,000 |
| NWMLS service area, condos | 6.29 | $455,000 |
| King County, condos | 7.0 | $496,000, down 6.0% year over year |
The greater inventory and lower median for service-area condos compared with single-family homes indicate that the property types should not be treated as one market. King County’s condo figures are county-specific and are not a Seattle-city statistic. These measures describe September conditions; they do not establish what either segment will do next. NWMLS’s property-type data provide the underlying comparison.
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- SPEAKS YOUR LANGUAGE: Keys clearly labeled in residential mortgage finance terms like Loan Amt, Int, Term, Pmt; this industry-standard calculator is super easy to use on all realty financing matters from finding a loan that works for your client to considering trust deeds investments, or finding remaining balances or balloon payments and more
- CONFIDENTLY AND EASILY SOLVE: Clients' financial questions whether they're buyers, sellers, investors or renters. Increase your perceived professionalism as a new agent, experienced broker or seasoned loan officer. Close more home sales and impress your clients with fast, accurate answers to all their real estate finance questions from PITI Payments to IRR, NPV and Cashflows
- DEDICATED BUYER QUALIFYING KEYS: Enter client's income, debt and expenses to pre-qualify them to only show properties they can afford. Include tax, insurance and mortgage insurance then compare loan options and payment solutions to give your client choices before they make an offer to buy
- FIGURE OUT THE RIGHT LOAN: For your client at the press of a button for jumbo, conventional, FHA/VA, or even 80:10:10 or 80:15:5 combo loans; check to see if ARMs or bi-weekly loans, quarterly payments or if interest-only payments are the answer; giving your client more choices; easily perform what if loan or TVM calculations find loan amount, term, interest or PITI or PI payments
- BECOME AN INVALUABLE RESOURCE: To your clients by reducing their confusion and uncertainty; ensuring they are able to make a purchase offer; knowing they can afford the down payment; and determining which is the right loan for them. Date-math for listings and contracts too. Comes with a protective slide cover, quick reference guide, pocket user's guide, and long-life battery
Is the Seattle housing market heading for a price drop?
The current evidence supports a cautious answer: the broader NWMLS market has more listings, fewer transactions, and a median price slightly below its year-earlier level. NWMLS reported that its service-area median was flat or below its year-earlier level in every month of 2026 through September. That is consistent with a cooler, less competitive market, but it does not prove that a crash or further price declines are coming.
Prices can respond more slowly than sales activity. In the October 6 NWMLS update, Steven Bourassa, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research, described “downward stickiness” in home prices: “Prices tend to rise quickly in a strong market but can be slower to fall when conditions weaken, in part because sellers may have the flexibility to wait rather than accept a lower price. Meanwhile, inventory continues to grow and sales have slowed, while higher mortgage rates are adding to affordability challenges for buyers. As a result, months of inventory has risen from 2.8 in March to 4.4 in September.” The comment explains why prices may not immediately follow slower sales; it is not a prediction that they must fall. NWMLS published the statement in its October 6 update.
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September’s data, published October 6, 2026, establish more choice and slower sales across the NWMLS service area, alongside rising reported mortgage rates. They do not settle whether rates, prices, or buyer demand will rise or fall next. The snapshot also does not provide Seattle-city-specific figures, so conclusions about Seattle itself should be limited to what local data can support.
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